The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Richard Latimer

@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

When UK racing is back I was wondering about maybe using the in running ratings on winning warlock to try and not just lay the entire field but perhaps a part of the field.

Do you reckon something like this could work?

There's also timeform 1,2,3 on betfair for all the U.S. races at the moment so considered looking at how all of these do? Again could they all be laid in running? How often does one of the 3 win, how often do they shorten in price?

Would still only look at the same race distances for the timeform 1,2,3

I try and use the Timeform 1,2,3, the volume traded on the horse, the pace evaluations on BetAmerica and running preference for the horse (I.e. front runner) to plan my back to lays on the US races. Doing not too badly.

I'm not talking about backing at all. Just laying part of the field. The part most likely to come in strong I guess. There will be many winner/losers but also many races where perhaps a couple get matched and the winner doesn't.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

When UK racing is back I was wondering about maybe using the in running ratings on winning warlock to try and not just lay the entire field but perhaps a part of the field.

Do you reckon something like this could work?

There's also timeform 1,2,3 on betfair for all the U.S. races at the moment so considered looking at how all of these do? Again could they all be laid in running? How often does one of the 3 win, how often do they shorten in price?

Would still only look at the same race distances for the timeform 1,2,3

I try and use the Timeform 1,2,3, the volume traded on the horse, the pace evaluations on BetAmerica and running preference for the horse (I.e. front runner) to plan my back to lays on the US races. Doing not too badly.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

When UK racing is back I was wondering about maybe using the in running ratings on winning warlock to try and not just lay the entire field but perhaps a part of the field.

Do you reckon something like this could work?

There's also timeform 1,2,3 on betfair for all the U.S. races at the moment so considered looking at how all of these do? Again could they all be laid in running? How often does one of the 3 win, how often do they shorten in price?

Would still only look at the same race distances for the timeform 1,2,3

I should add, was thinking min 3.0 BSP for any of these. Perhaps 3.5

Richard Latimer

When UK racing is back I was wondering about maybe using the in running ratings on winning warlock to try and not just lay the entire field but perhaps a part of the field.

Do you reckon something like this could work?

There's also timeform 1,2,3 on betfair for all the U.S. races at the moment so considered looking at how all of these do? Again could they all be laid in running? How often does one of the 3 win, how often do they shorten in price?

Would still only look at the same race distances for the timeform 1,2,3

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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@charles-cartwright
Sounds great mate, will look forward to what you find out.Defo be course bias imo aswell.Also maybe a going bias as on heavy ground etc they get strung out earlier

Dan

Have to be careful not to overfit the data though. I really want to see which are the most profitable entry points and courses to avoid. Will divide by type of race though and class because I already suspect that high grade handicaps or group races are going to be the best and low grade handicaps the worst. Have already figured out that sprints are useless because most horses that get below about 1.8 or 1.7 actually do go and win and late closers don't shorten much unless they actually are going to win the race which doesn't happen all that often.....of course we always remember them when we are on the one that gets caught right at the line.

If I can get this to work well then I will do NH racing as well.

Sounds great... I don't have access to the data myself but if I can help with any of the crunching then please let me know.

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@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@charles-cartwright
Sounds great mate, will look forward to what you find out.Defo be course bias imo aswell.Also maybe a going bias as on heavy ground etc they get strung out earlier

Dan

Have to be careful not to overfit the data though. I really want to see which are the most profitable entry points and courses to avoid. Will divide by type of race though and class because I already suspect that high grade handicaps or group races are going to be the best and low grade handicaps the worst. Have already figured out that sprints are useless because most horses that get below about 1.8 or 1.7 actually do go and win and late closers don't shorten much unless they actually are going to win the race which doesn't happen all that often.....of course we always remember them when we are on the one that gets caught right at the line.

If I can get this to work well then I will do NH racing as well.

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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

So I think I need to look at this LTF thing properly for when real racing comes back.

I am going to pull data from ProForm which has the most accurate LIR data and compile stats for the past three complete flat seasons. Will take me a while because the data isn't put together for the analysis we need but when it is complete will post it.

My guess is that there will be a course bias and probably a class bias and if we can find those then we can weed out the unprofitable stuff and give this a go when racing comes back hopefully soon.

Will share what I find on here once it is complete.

Decided to pay an Excel VBA developer to write a script so that I can do this much faster than me trying to write a series of poorly working macros. Once I get that I can load the entire ProForm database and run any number of queries on this.

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@charles-cartwright
Sounds great mate, will look forward to what you find out.Defo be course bias imo aswell.Also maybe a going bias as on heavy ground etc they get strung out earlier

Dan

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So I think I need to look at this LTF thing properly for when real racing comes back.

I am going to pull data from ProForm which has the most accurate LIR data and compile stats for the past three complete flat seasons. Will take me a while because the data isn't put together for the analysis we need but when it is complete will post it.

My guess is that there will be a course bias and probably a class bias and if we can find those then we can weed out the unprofitable stuff and give this a go when racing comes back hopefully soon.

Will share what I find on here once it is complete.

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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

There it is guys, some people all replying on Twitter saying it's great, like I say not looked myself

Well played sir! Bit of work to turn it into something usable but frankly all most of us have these days is time!!!

Been looking at this and unfortunately its not that great for LTF data. It clearly does not always accurately reflect the LIR price in a lot of these races. I have not been able to go back and see in those races where I traded in at 1.76 and had 2 horses match how low I could have gone and still had the winning lay kick in.

Really frustrating!!!!

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Had the perfect one last night....adding a link here so you can watch the race unfold.

http://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing-and-results/video-replays/player/thoroughbred/scst/20200425/race/2

Three horses were layed at 1.76 (they subsequently finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the race) and the winner (which went of at a BSP of about 300!) won by a short head and came so late and so fast it never triggered what would have been the losing lay.

+2.50 win!!!

Richard Latimer

I make it the 19:28 today as earliest possible with the rest to keep an eye on.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

8.26 at Tampa Tonight for LTF

Pretty much scratch @ 2.02

You need to be sub 2.0 for this to make any money.

Yup. I get that but, just purely following @Alan-Steward's table right now he's had one outright loss from 12 races. I'm following the stats........for now.

Converted that one at 1.76 for a +0.25pt win. You haven't a prayer of winning anything at even money.

Thus far am 9/12 on these, all but one of the winners only 2 horses went below 1.76 and am up a point. If it carries on like this will be quite happy scratting around until the real stuff comes back

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

8.26 at Tampa Tonight for LTF

Pretty much scratch @ 2.02

You need to be sub 2.0 for this to make any money.

Yup. I get that but, just purely following @Alan-Steward's table right now he's had one outright loss from 12 races. I'm following the stats........for now.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

8.26 at Tampa Tonight for LTF

Pretty much scratch @ 2.02

You need to be sub 2.0 for this to make any money.

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

8.26 at Tampa Tonight for LTF

Pretty much scratch @ 2.02

Richard Latimer

Doesn't help with inplay prices but I've just noticed the betfair app stores BSP prices for prev races in the meet same day.

james everard

@richard-latimer Makes up for the greyhound disaster I had earlier lol. Strictly auto on greyhounds now! Don't forget Martin pointed out earlier about the 20.26 at Tampa Bay fits the criteria for ltf

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

The timeform table can work sometimes if you look at the outsiders. I noticed there were a number of horses not racing and the third tip (second was one of the absentees) was odds of 42.0 backed it and just let it run ( only £2) and it won lovely. Then tried again at the 18.52 and the outside timeform tip this also at 42.0 coincidently put up a good fight and went under 3.0 traded out.

Sweet. That's a lot of green right there haha!

james everard

The timeform table can work sometimes if you look at the outsiders. I noticed there were a number of horses not racing and the third tip (second was one of the absentees) was odds of 42.0 backed it and just let it run ( only £2) and it won lovely. Then tried again at the 18.52 and the outside timeform tip this also at 42.0 coincidently put up a good fight and went under 3.0 traded out.