The BTC Horse Racing Thread
-
watched the last Will Rogers Race hoping for the fave to move past 4.0 and then it struck that maybe we could include these races with a tweak.
The reason for not doing LTF when shorter prices are involved is surely because we fear the short price bolting off, getting matched and cantering to victory. This seems to happen quite frequently so it's hardly unfounded but what about if we just exclude the favourite in these cases therefore continuing to lay a competitive field.
It would have worked on that one. Favourite won but before it did another got matched quite low. Of course even if it hadn't, you lose absolutely nothing if the favourite never skips a beat.
I might trial this tomorrow.
Same race types, distances etc.... just excluding any horse that goes off under 4.0 BSP.
-
@james-everard THAT'S MY FAVOURITE BIT!!!! I want it as my ringtone!
-
@keith-dow The classic trumpet play on the entrance love it lol
-
I've a few red flags on the next race. May be worth a L2B but unsure. I'll probably pass on it. Favourite looks good on the last race though. I'll probably set my bot on that and hit the hay though.
Got this strat running overnight on AUS with some stricter conditions on it. Always the favourite, tighter odds, odds relative to 2nd fav and liquidity. Small stakes but matched 10 last night for 100% S/R and a 1pt profit. Will see how it does tonight.
Catch you gentlemen later.
-
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Yeah, you do need a high strike rate as it's the same as straight laying. a loss will wipe out a nights work. My strike rate is around 92% percent just now.
If I am honest though, I am only using it to get my confidence back on the horse in readiness for the UK racing coming back. More data available for UK means higher possibilities for %ROI and dobbing.I am also weirdly addicted to the showmanship and commentary of the US races!
-
@richard-latimer Yeah, you do need a high strike rate as it's the same as straight laying. a loss will wipe out a nights work. My strike rate is around 92% percent just now.
If I am honest though, I am only using it to get my confidence back on the horse in readiness for the UK racing coming back. More data available for UK means higher possibilities for %ROI and dobbing. -
And this is all just from that american site and timeform 1-2-3 with comments?
If you're ony getting 10% you must need a very high s/r?
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
So do you have a stop loss?
I don't as I've seen them drift away and then contest at the end. What I sometimes do is try and snipe on the likely winner in the home straight to recover a bit of the loss if it doesn't go my way.
-
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
Matched straight out of the box.
-
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
So do you have a stop loss?
-
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
-
@james-everard Cheers mate. Found myself getting a bit greedy last night and upping the ratio to 20% ended up wiping out a days profit. Annoying thing was they all would've matched for 10%. Lesson learned
-
@keith-dow Hi mate great results you have done some good research. I have been testing some systems from the stats from the website and doing ok as well. Obviously early days but much better than trying to scalp the markets pre off.
Stick to your rules and don't get complacent and you will hopefully do well buddy -
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Right, back to the game plan. A Fast Broad for this one. Runs MF so may not get it straight out the box but should nab a few ticks mid race (hopefully!!!)
Good grief she took her time but matched at the final bend. This is why I prefer the pace trackers or front runners. These mid place runners are not good for my nerves.
-
Right, back to the game plan. A Fast Broad for this one. Runs MF so may not get it straight out the box but should nab a few ticks mid race (hopefully!!!)
-
@james-everard Hey man, that site is pure gold, honestly. I won't lay any higher than 6 and looking at overall speed for my selections and a horse that's not pacey in the final 3rd. 6/6 tonight.
I have to say with B2L on the favourite, especially ones under 2.8, it's unusual not to get matched in play. It has to have a really poor start or make an error.
-
@keith-dow Really useful that Usa site for the data on the horses speed and early and late pace can work b2l and l2b strategies around these stats. I will take on board ( made a note now) regarding the stall number and also will not back the higher odds horses if another one on the list is a clear favourite. This info will help identifying the right horse to trade for the correct strategy.
Good luck with laying the loser what is the max odds you are looking at, too higher odds can ruin you as I found on the dogs . I try not to go higher than 5.0 now.
Plenty of time to watch the film again unless you are back at work? I called my boss today and I am still not needed back yet. Hopefully I can get to grips and start making some money on the horses and footy is coming back very soon
-
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
Damn it. Standard, as soon as I post, it lets me down. First loss of the night, sorry if anyone got on it.
Back to setting rules for myself. Don't go beyond the 2nd fav and when uncertain, don't trade. I really must learn to sit on my hands sometimes! Managed to save 3/4's of the stake by backing the fav inplay in the final straight.
-
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
Damn it. Standard, as soon as I post, it lets me down. First loss of the night, sorry if anyone got on it.
-
Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
