The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam
Do we have missing data?My version of Lay beaten Favourite (v1 on my strats bunker) recorded only one race for yesterday and only 2 bets taken all day. In reality i have dozens over several races. Its not just that strategy thats different though, absolutely nothing matches up yesterday. Some are close but this one is mental (and its not one i have had issues with before). This is what it actually took...
The following courses are excluded in your strategy:
- Newmarket
- Downpatrick
- Leopardstown
- Newbury
That basically just leaves Carlisle. I checked the first 3 Carlisle bets on the sheet (Kehlani, Iolani, Whatacracker) and none of them were favourites last time out so wouldn't have been qualifiers in the software.
Something's not right at the BFBM end I think if those bets were all made on the lay beaten fave strategy.
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Karl-Pick did you speak to the guy who runs it? he's really helpful!
No I will message him, never thought just binned it, as it just annoyed me so much!
Thank you. -
@Adam
Do we have missing data?My version of Lay beaten Favourite (v1 on my strats bunker) recorded only one race for yesterday and only 2 bets taken all day. In reality i have dozens over several races. Its not just that strategy thats different though, absolutely nothing matches up yesterday. Some are close but this one is mental (and its not one i have had issues with before). This is what it actually took:
This is a recent change to BFBM so entirely possible something is screwed up but i havent seen anything like this since i started on live stakes and the odds look in the range.
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Karl-Pick interesting what was it in particular you struggled with?
the whole thing it transferred the data and had the headings on the initial page of each strategy, first day placed 1 bet, should have been 8, then placed no bets again! Gave up after 3 weeks of loading reloading, following everyones instruction and advise. It still placed Zero further bets!
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The only bad thing i have found about BFBM is its sim mode. If i run the strategies in Fairbot in sim mode its pretty much a perfect match (some days it is perfect, others might be a few ticks out on a few trades) to what the backtest says. In BFBM its a total fiction. Sim mode in BFBM is only useful to see if a strategy executes rules, its useless to see if a strategy might be any good. Several hundred % out across all strategies between sim and live. Today for example i ran both (testing a new strategy). Excluding the new one sim mode says £6.58 profit (at 29p per point), in live its actually a 48p loss.
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@Tony-Hastie as long as it's working for you that's great BA will get automated too by sounds of it!
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@Jonathan-Jones that's amazing! Think BFBM will be my first port of call then @David-Milligan
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@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Does anyone use stop losses in live trading? Some of my big lay strategies perform a fair bit better using a stop loss according to the backtest. Not unrealisticly tight ones, talking about stuff around 60 ticks. Wondering if anyone uses them and what they think about it in terms of execution, matching, max stakes etc.
I do for pre-race trading. Can be a bit of a pain in the arse in-play as the prices jump around.
The MAE figure in the software is helpful for planning stop-losses as it shows you how far against you (on average) your trades went before turning around and becoming profitable. So you can hopefully avoid cutting winning trades short wherever possible.
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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The only solution I see is to integrate BA with BTC and hold the vote again in 6 months
This is definitely on the cards now that BetAngel have launched an API
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@Martin I would argue that BFBM is the most popular because of the integration with BTC. Its a very weak argument though as I tend not to try and argue online, Ive never tried BFBM and Ive only been with Bet Angel for a few months!
The only solution I see is to integrate BA with BTC and hold the vote again in 6 months
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Question.
Does anyone use stop losses in live trading? Some of my big lay strategies perform a fair bit better using a stop loss according to the backtest. Not unrealisticly tight ones, talking about stuff around 60 ticks. Wondering if anyone uses them and what they think about it in terms of execution, matching, max stakes etc.
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@Jonathan-Jones BFBM is the way
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@Martin
Absolutely loving the analysis betfair bot manager allows me to do on multiple strategies. Its something thats completely missing from Fairbot. Also loving how i havent had to touch a damn thing for 3 days. Can spend my time watching cat videos on youtube instead. -
@Martin ...I have given up on it, maybe I'm too old (old fart new technology). Just annoyed I paid for 6 months and never got it too work!!
I will have to stick to my Quill and paper methods!
