The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@keith-dow
That has potential to be a real useful website mate, just need to chart how accurate their pace charts are I guess, potential for b2l and l2b if accurate aswell -
This is a cracking little resource. I'm particularly fond of the pace section in each race card. Gives a good indication of front runners. May also help look at how competitive a race is for LTF.
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@richard-latimer Here you go mate, obviously variance is still to kick in but you can see all my criteria below.
You really need to measure and gauge to get your own feel etc.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-dodd Yes mate that I believe is the most important element to measure... Stats on, claim, maiden claim handicap etc.
Any Horse whizzo's on here who can explain to a horse newbie what a claim, maiden claim & handicap is... I believe a handicap race is supposed to create a more level playing field???
I'm not a horse expert but handicap is when the horses are weighted I think so as to literally handicap the best ones. Maiden, none of them have won. Not enitrely sure about claim but I just googled this.
A claiming race in thoroughbred horse racing is one in which the horses are all for sale for more or less the same price (the "claiming price") up until shortly before the race.
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@martin-dodd Yes mate that I believe is the most important element to measure... Stats on, claim, maiden claim handicap etc.
Any Horse whizzo's on here who can explain to a horse newbie what a claim, maiden claim & handicap is... I believe a handicap race is supposed to create a more level playing field???
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Hi mate, another solid 1pt green last night with LTF... Just battling with Bet Angel at the mo after getting so used to Fairbot lol but yes doing minimal stakes now rather than simulation mode
Am doing mine manually and the biggest pain is waiting for each race to see if it qualifies so am now doing 3 strats on every race... Pre Race Scalp (@Keith-Dow is the main man for this one), Dutch Front of Field and for those that qualify LTF
@Alan-Steward what filters/criteria are you currently using and what odds you laying at?
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@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-dodd
Hi Martin
Was wondering if of your 100+ races was there any pattern in certain courses performing better than others,as I believe this could be a big influence.
Cheers Dan
At the moment no difference by course, but there were too many different courses to have a big enough sample at each to be certain.
But I did start to see some differing results for different race types (e.g. Pace, Claim, hcap, etc) -
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I’m finding LTF really variable. The more a read about it the less certain I am about pinning it down. Some reckon camera angles and such other things in play are a factor! There’s a school of thought that your are actually banking on peoples overreaction and excitement towards the end of a close race as opposed to starting odds. In a nutshell....the inconsistency drives me a bit mad!!!
That said, it’s great fun. I am having a more consistent run with B2L and dutching.
Hey Keith, I believe you have hit the nail on the head there as they do say some courses are better than others... i.e.Punters will back towards the end of the race when they get a good angle of viewing.
I generally find that the Will Rogers Down course yields better results than the Tampa Bay Downs course... Maybe coincidence or because the Punters feel more comfortable betting on one course to the other... Only time will tell over time when collecting enough stats to gauge results on
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@claudiu-ion I did see it somewhere mate but will stick to manual for now, I will look to touch base with you later when and if go into automation.
Are you competant in creating the files for Bet Angel?
This is an area I need to learn
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Can I also say that I think I am enjoying the horses more than Trading football......that may be down to the god awful Belarusians though.
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I’m finding LTF really variable. The more a read about it the less certain I am about pinning it down. Some reckon camera angles and such other things in play are a factor! There’s a school of thought that your are actually banking on peoples overreaction and excitement towards the end of a close race as opposed to starting odds. In a nutshell....the inconsistency drives me a bit mad!!!
That said, it’s great fun. I am having a more consistent run with B2L and dutching.
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@martin-dodd
Hi Martin
Was wondering if of your 100+ races was there any pattern in certain courses performing better than others,as I believe this could be a big influence.
Cheers Dan
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Only had one race hit criteria last night, was 8.15 will Rogers downs I think, managed to get 3 matched for a nice green.
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@Alan-Steward did you try the automation files that I made for this strategy? there are attached few posts above. I added race distance conditions and other relevant conditions. I just apply rules on all races and if all conditions are met it will lay the field, if not... it won't
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@richard-latimer Hi mate, another solid 1pt green last night with LTF... Just battling with Bet Angel at the mo after getting so used to Fairbot lol but yes doing minimal stakes now rather than simulation mode
Am doing mine manually and the biggest pain is waiting for each race to see if it qualifies so am now doing 3 strats on every race... Pre Race Scalp (@Keith-Dow is the main man for this one), Dutch Front of Field and for those that qualify LTF
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@richard-latimer
in brief...Hit and miss!I think my in-play idea has some legs but also some obvious limitations.
I struggled a bit as I was running three bots at the same time (each with different entry points) and they didn't cycle fast enough, thus I missed some matches. Even with just one bot running I found that sometimes the odds move so fast that they blast straight past my entry.
Overall, none of them was profitable over the course of a few days (100+ markets)...I also ran the BTC criteria and that broke even for me, but I saw quite a bit of variation to limit my confidence in it for the long term.For now, I'm running it with small stakes (10p) to continue to gather some data and see if I can refine the selection criteria.
I haven't given up on it yet (not much else to do right now anyway!) but I feel like it will end up only working for quite a small set of circumstances -
So I've not been doing these the last week. Has anybody started to come up with some optimal filters on odds and the like yet? @Alan-Steward, you were doing very well on simulation. Has it continued on live and what odds are you going in at?
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@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Lay the Field update:
I'm not convinced we are going in the right direction with this (very happy to be proved wrong though!)
The few picks I have made with the criteria haven't been positive and led to an overall loss. Also, taking Australia as an example, if I look at the historical data for 2020 then I have zero events where 3+ runners had £100 traded on them below 2.0So, I'm testing in a different direction.
Using Ryan's "What has to happen?" question then the key thing is that multiple horses have to get below an odds threshold... the number of runners, BSP fav, etc don't matter if one horse disappears up the track. I think there needs to be some in-play consideration to the decision to trade.What I am going to try is looking for races where the IP odds of the 3rd fav get below, say, 3.0 (best value TBD)...then we know we have several horses in the mix and we can lay the field.
To begin with I'm running this with micro stakes on any race (no restriction on BSP, runners, length, etc) to see if any patterns emerge.EDIT: The wrinkle to this is that they don't all have to be under, say 3.0, at the same time for the trade to win....but that needs more thought
How have you been faring with this?
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Nice LTF in Will (Buck) Rogers tonight. 3 matched in the 1945. Laid at 1.81.
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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@paul-keighley said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Works a treat on BF Bet Manager if anyone is interested in setting that up (see my previous post on my settings at the moment).
Tested it last night on the Aussie racing with no minimum traded volume and it fired the bets in perfectly. Will activate it properly today requiring at least 50K liquidity before the off.
I'd love to give it a go on BFBM if you could help me with the settings please Charles! I had a quick go yesterday but i'm much better at football on BFBM than the horses unfortunately!
No problem at all.
I am attaching the program file to this message.
Had to convert it to a '.doc' file to get it uploaded. Just convert back to '.gz' file before you upload it into BF Bot Manager.
It is all set up to work. This one is set to fire at 1.51 but you can change that in the price settings. All of the usual fields are there to play with...mainly just adjusting the market filters and whatever you want to use for a stake.
Right now I am running 1.51, 1.76 and 1.99 experimentally until I have completed a few hundred trades to see where the sweet spot is. Pretty sure it won't be close to evens but not sure which of the other two might be better.
Let me know if you have any issues with set up.
*Ok so that experiment lasted one day. Realized that I can't have multiple set points on the same market with BFBM. It simply can't cycle through the different scenarios quickly enough to get the trades matched in play with the speed with which the prices change at the business end of horse races.
Have decided to cut down to one set point to start with, which will be the 1.76 entry. This seems like a decent compromise between risk and reward since only 2 trades is enough to generate a profit but not asking for prices to dip as low as 1.5 or so.
I do think that when 'real' racing comes back and there are enough races that a real experiment can be conducted, I will take a look at a lower entry point because there is way more in play action on UK/IRE racing than on any of the Aussie or US races.*
