The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Martin]

@John-Folan sounds like my kind of strategy! Thanks for sharing

[John Folan]

Haven't come up with a BSP strategy but this looks tidy. Averages 80 points a year laying the 10/12 pace rated horses between 3.0-7.9. This is the sort of range you lot lay correct scores in so it's not much of a stretch. 17% drawdown on a 100 point bank and a longest losing run of 4. Won't make you a millionaire but will tick along.

Pace 1012 Lays.json

[Tony Hastie]

@John-Folan Adams favorite number?

[John Folan]

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan market less aware of them so better odds?

Could well be. If you look at the breakdown on anything backing pace(aw and turf). 8’s seem to be head and shoulders above anything else

[Martin]

@John-Folan market less aware of them so better odds?

[John Folan]

Really looking hard for a BSP strategy we can all do. Making inroads with horses on the flat with a pace rating of “8”. Wonder why they seem to be best?

[andrew page]

Day off work so got some screen time

Back to lay selections im going to be doing although Newcastle is not one of my favourite tracks

[John Folan]

@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan good work. Are you using the pre-set filter, or an adapted version?

I've adapted it because I like to fiddle but the pre-set one I originally created is good to go anyway

[Sean]

@Adam Thank you for that, that was easier than I thought to work it out.
That would be great if it could be added to the software. In BFBM to place it you just select what percentage you want the current stake reduced by. I can't get the entry Lay bet to be exactly what the Exit bet as a DOB would be using a bot, I would have to do it manually to achieve that, so would be handy if it matched that. I hope that makes sense.

[Joseph Henderson]

@John-Folan good work. Are you using the preset filter, or an adapted version?

[John Folan]

I wish everyday was like today on the short odds lays. 5/6 for me

[Adam]

@Sean There's currently no way to do that in the software. I'll look into adding it.

In the meantime, you might be able to figure it out with a bit of fiddling if you set it up as below. You've probably already got the first 4 steps covered in your existing DOB strategy:

1. Set the entry side to "Back"
2. Use an entry price range of 1.01-1000 and set the entry time to whatever you want
3. Set the exit target to "Profit" and set the value to 1 (like a DOB)
4. Set the exit time to race end
5. Include the P/L, exit price and horse position in your individual trades columns (under "Customise Results")
6. Download the individual trades to a spreadsheet

At this point, you should have all the bets in a sheet, but the profit will be wrong because it's behaving like a back to lay, so...

7. Amend the P/L column in your spreadsheet so it behaves like straight lays instead. Off the top of my head:

• You'll need to completely remove any trades that don't have an exit price (these are the ones that never hit 50% of the entry price)
• The P/L for all trades where the horse won will obviously be a loss of (odds - 1) * stake
• You can subtract the back stake from the profit on any trades where the exit price was hit but the horse didn't win, to get the true profit for a straight lay

As I say, a bit fiddly but it should give you the info you need.

[Greg Mitchell]

Thought I'd have a look at the 5f Backs as don't currently run any Horse Back strategies.

rules_export.json

Came up with this, going into testing as from today.

[Martin]

@Sean dobs are usually done at the off which is easy enough, what time are you entering?

I'll refer over to @Adam

[Sean]

Does anyone know how in the Horse Racing Software I can select an odds range for a horse to be in at Xmins before the race starts, and whatever that price is halve it, and that's the price I would place my entry Lay bet at?
I have a DOB strategy that's very average but I've noticed of the horses that do DOB, hardly any of them go on to win the race. Based on the selections I've had since I started testing it 6 months ago I would be in a fair amount of profit if I had just entered the closing Lay bet and let that run, so was hoping to be able to back-test it further and see how it did in the first half of 2023.

[Martin]

@Dan-MacKinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin Yeah I'm always interested in forward testing ideas

here you go: 5fbacks.json

[Dan MacKinnon]

@Martin Yeah I'm always interested in forward testing ideas

[Martin]

@Dan-MacKinnon oh well if you want a copy let me know

[Dan MacKinnon]

@Martin No it wasn't. Not sure who did come up with that.

[Martin]

Just going through Jan results looks like a few strats did well -

5 Furlong Back did well was that your one @Dan-MacKinnon?
Lay 3rd Fav 2.0, Lay Forecast in decent profit too