The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
As per Martin's email earlier the next race is currently looking good for the lay the field strategy
3 matched there, you?
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
As per Martin's email earlier the next race is currently looking good for the lay the field strategy
3 matched there, you?
Only two for me mate I am going in at 1.84
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
As per Martin's email earlier the next race is currently looking good for the lay the field strategy
3 matched there, you?
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@keith-dow Ok mate I will focus on the top 3 and volume as well then cheers
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@james-everard I always focus on the three with the most volume traded. In that race Diamonata was the second biggest in terms of volume but liked to track pace as a running style. She steamed into favourite when loaded and hit the lay match straight out of the stalls.
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As per Martin's email earlier the next race is currently looking good for the lay the field strategy
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@james-everard Well that didn't start well never in the races . The winner at 39-1 had no stats that suggested in the frame at all. Slow down and not jump into things that are unlikely
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard Promising signs that things are returning. I'm not giving up my trumpeted yankie doodle horsies though.
I am getting into it . Anything on the next race ? I have had a look at the stats, and a total outsider is Olive County which has the top late pace and a hot trainer. I have put a £2 back on this a to trade out at 20% lower.
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@james-everard Promising signs that things are returning. I'm not giving up my trumpeted yankie doodle horsies though.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard if liquidity is good may as well test the waters!
No idea what liquidity will be like for French racing but I would imagine it would be half decent. Be better than Swedish trotting for sure . Looking at the Paris course looks one of the bigger venues so fingers crossed and hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised with the liquidity ( only 6 days away) .Sport is slowly starting to look more promising
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@james-everard if liquidity is good may as well test the waters!
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Not sure if anyone trades French horse racing , I assume it is on the Betfair exchange. If so good news starting Monday
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watched the last Will Rogers Race hoping for the fave to move past 4.0 and then it struck that maybe we could include these races with a tweak.
The reason for not doing LTF when shorter prices are involved is surely because we fear the short price bolting off, getting matched and cantering to victory. This seems to happen quite frequently so it's hardly unfounded but what about if we just exclude the favourite in these cases therefore continuing to lay a competitive field.
It would have worked on that one. Favourite won but before it did another got matched quite low. Of course even if it hadn't, you lose absolutely nothing if the favourite never skips a beat.
I might trial this tomorrow.
Same race types, distances etc.... just excluding any horse that goes off under 4.0 BSP.
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@james-everard THAT'S MY FAVOURITE BIT!!!! I want it as my ringtone!
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@keith-dow The classic trumpet play on the entrance love it lol
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I've a few red flags on the next race. May be worth a L2B but unsure. I'll probably pass on it. Favourite looks good on the last race though. I'll probably set my bot on that and hit the hay though.
Got this strat running overnight on AUS with some stricter conditions on it. Always the favourite, tighter odds, odds relative to 2nd fav and liquidity. Small stakes but matched 10 last night for 100% S/R and a 1pt profit. Will see how it does tonight.
Catch you gentlemen later.
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Yeah, you do need a high strike rate as it's the same as straight laying. a loss will wipe out a nights work. My strike rate is around 92% percent just now.
If I am honest though, I am only using it to get my confidence back on the horse in readiness for the UK racing coming back. More data available for UK means higher possibilities for %ROI and dobbing.I am also weirdly addicted to the showmanship and commentary of the US races!
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@richard-latimer Yeah, you do need a high strike rate as it's the same as straight laying. a loss will wipe out a nights work. My strike rate is around 92% percent just now.
If I am honest though, I am only using it to get my confidence back on the horse in readiness for the UK racing coming back. More data available for UK means higher possibilities for %ROI and dobbing. -
And this is all just from that american site and timeform 1-2-3 with comments?
If you're ony getting 10% you must need a very high s/r?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
So do you have a stop loss?
I don't as I've seen them drift away and then contest at the end. What I sometimes do is try and snipe on the likely winner in the home straight to recover a bit of the loss if it doesn't go my way.
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
Matched straight out of the box.
