The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
So do you have a stop loss?
I don't as I've seen them drift away and then contest at the end. What I sometimes do is try and snipe on the likely winner in the home straight to recover a bit of the loss if it doesn't go my way.
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
Matched straight out of the box.
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
So do you have a stop loss?
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Can't see the favourite not hitting 10% here. runs close to pace, 2nd on timeform and fast 1st and 2nd pace stats.
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@james-everard Cheers mate. Found myself getting a bit greedy last night and upping the ratio to 20% ended up wiping out a days profit. Annoying thing was they all would've matched for 10%. Lesson learned
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@keith-dow Hi mate great results you have done some good research. I have been testing some systems from the stats from the website and doing ok as well. Obviously early days but much better than trying to scalp the markets pre off.
Stick to your rules and don't get complacent and you will hopefully do well buddy -
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Right, back to the game plan. A Fast Broad for this one. Runs MF so may not get it straight out the box but should nab a few ticks mid race (hopefully!!!)
Good grief she took her time but matched at the final bend. This is why I prefer the pace trackers or front runners. These mid place runners are not good for my nerves.
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Right, back to the game plan. A Fast Broad for this one. Runs MF so may not get it straight out the box but should nab a few ticks mid race (hopefully!!!)
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@james-everard Hey man, that site is pure gold, honestly. I won't lay any higher than 6 and looking at overall speed for my selections and a horse that's not pacey in the final 3rd. 6/6 tonight.
I have to say with B2L on the favourite, especially ones under 2.8, it's unusual not to get matched in play. It has to have a really poor start or make an error.
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@keith-dow Really useful that Usa site for the data on the horses speed and early and late pace can work b2l and l2b strategies around these stats. I will take on board ( made a note now) regarding the stall number and also will not back the higher odds horses if another one on the list is a clear favourite. This info will help identifying the right horse to trade for the correct strategy.
Good luck with laying the loser what is the max odds you are looking at, too higher odds can ruin you as I found on the dogs . I try not to go higher than 5.0 now.
Plenty of time to watch the film again unless you are back at work? I called my boss today and I am still not needed back yet. Hopefully I can get to grips and start making some money on the horses and footy is coming back very soon
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
Damn it. Standard, as soon as I post, it lets me down. First loss of the night, sorry if anyone got on it.
Back to setting rules for myself. Don't go beyond the 2nd fav and when uncertain, don't trade. I really must learn to sit on my hands sometimes! Managed to save 3/4's of the stake by backing the fav inplay in the final straight.
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
Damn it. Standard, as soon as I post, it lets me down. First loss of the night, sorry if anyone got on it.
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Woods of Conagree in this one for me. Higher odds than I usually like but not too convinced on the fav.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@ichard-latimer I bloody cocked up lol, I laid the field at 1.84 but forgot to keep inplay I was having dinner at the time. Good news was though i also backed Vivace on the bl2 strategy and again forgot to go inplay but it bloody won which more than made up for it!
What's that. Vivaci got down to 2.04 or 2.06 I think.
Did you manage to lay right at the end of the race?
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@ichard-latimer I bloody cocked up lol, I laid the field at 1.84 but forgot to keep inplay I was having dinner at the time. Good news was though i also backed Vivace on the bl2 strategy and again forgot to go inplay but it bloody won which more than made up for it!
What's that. Vivaci got down to 2.04 or 2.06 I think.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@pete-smith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Tell me about it. I did 2.02 and got 2. 2.06 was another. Could have been 4 matched haha!
Hindsight... 2.06 wouldn't have been much more liability, but where do you draw the line? I've had a few good results at 2.04 not so much at 1.86 though.
I'm drawing the line right where I am for now. No real loss is fine with me.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I went in @ 2.04 & only got 2 matched... My software showed lowest traded price to be 2.0 which is strange as it's generally 1.01... Sorry my software did record lowest at 1.01, then 2.0 then 2.06
@Pete-Smith Did you do live trades, simulation or manual on Betfair... Interesting that you got 3 matched... Well done
There was definitely a 2.04 as I looked at the graph live.
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Evening chaps. Hope all is green in here.
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@james-everard Hey mate. sounds like you're doing well tonight! Handy when the oversight goes your way! To answer your question, I tend to steer away from the higher odds horses if one of the favoured ones looks pacey. I know some go onto them as you need less ticks to hit 10% but I've been burned by them too often. So I tend to lean more towards the lower odds. Hope you got on Poppy's Oats, I think she won.
Another thing to consider is the stall draw. Being closer to the rail seems to sometimes offer an advantage in these races. I tried automating my strat tonight and pick in advance as there was a film I wanted to watch. Miss fired the first time but sorted it out and I'm 4/4.
Incidentally I am trying to play with the opposite of this and picking losers to lay. Busted me a couple of times last night but on the whole it seems not too bad. Put a small bank in Smarkets to play it there as an experiment (I think I remember @Keith-Anderson suggesting a separate stream for riskier strats).
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@Alan-Steward I've stolen your basic template as it seems to do everything I need it to do for the time being. Thanks. Now to start recording.
