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The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Horse Racing
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #5441

    I mentioned a while ago that I am working on discovering what if any angles can be used to deploy LTF once racing resumes in UK/IE. Still going through the masses of data but I can share with you this piece that shows the futility of using a set-point for your trades anywhere close to even money.

    I looked at every flat race run in the UK/IE for 2019 that had at least 6 runners, 4222 of them to be exact. Then I looked at what the LIR was for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in each of those races and calculated the P/L for two simple entry points....1.99 and 1.31.

    Of course will no selection criteria applied both of them were net losers but it illustrated clearly what you need to be looking at.

    Of the 4,222 races: 1,520 had only one horse (the winner) trading less than 2.0, 2,265 had 2 horses trading less than 2.0, 407 had 3 horses and 30 had 4 horses. Your net loss if you laid at 1.99 would have been -1,053 pts.

    Of the 4,222 races: 3,324 had only 1 horses trading at 1.31 or lower, 869 had 2 at that price, 28 had 3, and 1 had 4. Net loss trading at 1.31 would have been -338.6 pts.

    The point here is that you can't turn that first concept into a winning one no matter what you do.

    Will be back when I finished my complete analysis but I believe that course and distance filters are going to be the key and that potentially using two entry points to maximize the positive side of winning trades whilst maintaining steady liability will be the way to go.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5442

    That said, the 13:35 looks like it may be good

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5443

    Nothing qualifying so far anyway

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5444

    @richard-latimer
    4 group races on card tommorow as catching up from lockdown, so money will be very good I would think

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #5445

    @alan-steward decent amount of money already down. French racing bigger than German.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by A Former User
    #5446

    @richard-latimer Didnt really notice field size mate but having said that I feel it would be wise to see how their markets trade first ie how quickly monies trade but more importantly how much monies are traded inplay... Will be keeping an eye on it and run both meetings in simulation mode 👍

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5447

    Ok who's going to try this out at Longchamp tomorrow? Do we have a max race size? Most U.S. races are small fields but a couple of these French ones are quite large.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #5448

    Check out the price crash on racing to resume on or before 1st june

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5449

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    21:06 looks good

    More evidence that 2.04 MAY be the way to go. 1 matched @ 2.02. Another horses traded @ 2.04 for over £100.00.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5450

    21:06 looks good

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5451

    @richard-latimer Fingers x , testing slightly different ways is good as we will find the best method eventually. Off to Aldi's now can't wait speak in a while

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to james everard on last edited by
    #5452

    @james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?

    Very early days and nothing much has matched.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    J 1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5453

    @richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5454

    @richard-latimer I can see where you're coming from with that mate, be interesting to see how it rolls out 👍

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to james everard on last edited by
    #5455

    @james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @alan-steward Ok that's what I thought . Get on with your dinner mate you will be in trouble

    I am trialling laying the field less short priced fav when it goes under 4.0 though. If the fav bolts you lose nothing and it if matches but loses you gain at least a point. If 3 others match you also win a point.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? J 2 Replies Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5456

    @richard-latimer Ok cheers mate thought so, no point diverting away from the rules

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #5457

    Shes still washing her hair mate lol

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to james everard on last edited by
    #5458

    @james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

    @richard-latimer Fair enough just trying to work different angles. So if 2 get matched at 2.04 and one goes onto win we make nothing so we are needing 3 matched to make a profit.
    What are you thoughts on the next race or do you think it doesn't meet the criteria as just over a mile?

    I'm not doing it. Our records are for 6f to 1m.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #5459

    @alan-steward Ok that's what I thought . Get on with your dinner mate you will be in trouble

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to james everard on last edited by A Former User
    #5460

    @james-everard Personally I dont think you'll make money with only two matching. How I see it is about scratching as much as poss with 2 @ 1.98/2.04 and look for the 3rd for profits... That's my opinion anyway... Let's see how the numbers go

    J 1 Reply Last reply
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