The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@Adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

How has everyone's horse strategies been getting on? Any hidden gems developing?

My best ones at the moment revolve around combinations of draw bias and pace rating.

I think I'll actually add Pace Bias to the software, as there are courses that have a bias for specific pace styles just like there are ones that have a bias in certain stalls.

You can get quite a good idea from the course type. I started looking but got distracted as usual. Will look when I’m back from Turkey with a head of hair like Rod Stewart

Martin

@Adam draw bias is really interesting to me as not something I have used much! Pace bias sounds like a fascinating stat they I bet hardly anyone is looking at.

Adam

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

How has everyone's horse strategies been getting on? Any hidden gems developing?

My best ones at the moment revolve around combinations of draw bias and pace rating.

I think I'll actually add Pace Bias to the software, as there are courses that have a bias for specific pace styles just like there are ones that have a bias in certain stalls.

Martin

@Joseph-Henderson what I like is that even if you pause it live it can still be tracked without having to do anything in the software. Got a few I'm testing mainly ones people have shared or ones I have created while doing tutorials and noticing potential angles, when I next run through them all I will let you know!

Martin

@Tony-Hastie that's such a great point you make, it can be so hard to start a strategy when it hits a bad run and stick with it!

Joseph Henderson

@Martin I have been having some success with a version of the short odd lays strategy which did very well last month. Started August poorly so will see! The DOBS and TROBS have pretty much flat lined or declined since end of April/May so may scrap if they continue to perform poorly. Would be interested to hear any other strategy ideas!

Tony Hastie

@Martin Not really a hidden Gem but Ive now been trading Lay 3rd fav for about 4 months. That in itself is a feat for me considering Ive started and stopped 3 or 4 other times! The big difference this time is I caught it at a VERY good time and was able to build a considerable(for me) bank before the inevitable downturn hit(july, a shite month all round for racing I think). It lost a lot of points in july but I was a lot happier losing money won than my own! And August has been good so far....

I do things a bit differently to what you suggest here. Every month Ive been updating courses, odds range, class and going stats and continuing on from there. Its been working well.

Martin

How has everyone's horse strategies been getting on? Any hidden gems developing?

Adam

@John-Folan Looking forward to adding "Horse Stool Consistency" to the software as a strategy rule.

John Folan

Racehorse poo analysis predicts future success https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d75eqkdq5o

Anyone got a ziplock bag and a lolly stick?

Greg Mitchell

Just after a second opinion, but I have a horse racing Lay strategy which I am testing, back testing just includes 2023 and 2024, and I wondered what the following two sets of results would tell you:

These are the results if I set it to bet as soon as the Market is Open:

And these are the results if I set it to bet 15 minutes before the start of the race:

The strategy lays certain 1st and 2nd Favourites, so obviously the variance in number of bets is due to market movements, but just wondered if there were any other thoughts explaining the variance?

Adam

@Greg-Mitchell Yes that should be possible. Probably a few other rules that could benefit from that too, e.g. course/distance wins etc.

Greg Mitchell

@Adam Thanks, I did figure out my stupidity yesterday as soon as you asked the question.

Just whilst I'm on, wonder if it would be possible to add a filter in the software to count/restrict horse by number of runs in the current season, if it doesn't already exist and I'm being daft again.

Adam

@Greg-Mitchell The difference is probably the horses that have had less than 10 runs in total.

In the racecards, we display the number of runs the horse has had and the DOB % across up to 10 runs (as in, we still calculate it even if they've had less than 10 runs).

In the strategy builder, if you run a rule over a scope of last 10 runs, it also restricts the results to horses that have had at least 10 runs. Otherwise you'd get undesirable things like horses that had run once, dobbed in that race and therefore show a great-looking DOB % of 100%.

Greg Mitchell

@Adam I was using 10

Adam

@Greg-Mitchell How many runs are you calculating the DOBs over in the strategy rule?

James Menhenitt

@Martin That would be an awesome help, actually, fantastic learning tool, thanks

Martin

@James-Menhenitt I'll start a strategy database thread for horses like I did with football, that should help with examples of what people have used.

Greg Mitchell

@Adam Not sure this is worth raising as support ticket, but a quick question on the software race card DOB and TROB %. How would I replicate that in the software? I have tried doing the obvious i.e. BSP > Lowest Price Inrunning X 2, and other variations, but can't get it to pick the same horses as those showing in the Racecard?

James Menhenitt

@Martin thanks for the update. Actually completely agree with that as I've experienced in the past a tipster disappear who was actually quite profitable and it was a big gap!

The problem it left (and if I'm honest still is a problem) is knowing what metrics can impact the probability of success/failure of a strategy. Hopefully that will come with time.