The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@alan-steward it's not too bad
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@richard-latimer Not a lot of liquidity though mate and in play action is key to getting more than one selection matched... Maybe it will pick up in the next 10mins
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@charles-cartwright Hi Charles, where can we find this data... Is it easily available to all online or is this info from another membership site... Cheers
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I mentioned a while ago that I am working on discovering what if any angles can be used to deploy LTF once racing resumes in UK/IE. Still going through the masses of data but I can share with you this piece that shows the futility of using a set-point for your trades anywhere close to even money.
I looked at every flat race run in the UK/IE for 2019 that had at least 6 runners, 4222 of them to be exact. Then I looked at what the LIR was for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in each of those races and calculated the P/L for two simple entry points....1.99 and 1.31.
Of course will no selection criteria applied both of them were net losers but it illustrated clearly what you need to be looking at.
Of the 4,222 races: 1,520 had only one horse (the winner) trading less than 2.0, 2,265 had 2 horses trading less than 2.0, 407 had 3 horses and 30 had 4 horses. Your net loss if you laid at 1.99 would have been -1,053 pts.
Of the 4,222 races: 3,324 had only 1 horses trading at 1.31 or lower, 869 had 2 at that price, 28 had 3, and 1 had 4. Net loss trading at 1.31 would have been -338.6 pts.
The point here is that you can't turn that first concept into a winning one no matter what you do.
Will be back when I finished my complete analysis but I believe that course and distance filters are going to be the key and that potentially using two entry points to maximize the positive side of winning trades whilst maintaining steady liability will be the way to go.
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That said, the 13:35 looks like it may be good
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Nothing qualifying so far anyway
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@richard-latimer
4 group races on card tommorow as catching up from lockdown, so money will be very good I would think -
@alan-steward decent amount of money already down. French racing bigger than German.
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@richard-latimer Didnt really notice field size mate but having said that I feel it would be wise to see how their markets trade first ie how quickly monies trade but more importantly how much monies are traded inplay... Will be keeping an eye on it and run both meetings in simulation mode
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Ok who's going to try this out at Longchamp tomorrow? Do we have a max race size? Most U.S. races are small fields but a couple of these French ones are quite large.
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Check out the price crash on racing to resume on or before 1st june
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
21:06 looks good
More evidence that 2.04 MAY be the way to go. 1 matched @ 2.02. Another horses traded @ 2.04 for over £100.00.
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21:06 looks good
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Fingers x , testing slightly different ways is good as we will find the best method eventually. Off to Aldi's now can't wait speak in a while
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?
Very early days and nothing much has matched.
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@richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?
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@richard-latimer I can see where you're coming from with that mate, be interesting to see how it rolls out
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@alan-steward Ok that's what I thought . Get on with your dinner mate you will be in trouble
I am trialling laying the field less short priced fav when it goes under 4.0 though. If the fav bolts you lose nothing and it if matches but loses you gain at least a point. If 3 others match you also win a point.
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@richard-latimer Ok cheers mate thought so, no point diverting away from the rules
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Shes still washing her hair mate lol
