The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Richard Latimer]

First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.

A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.

[A Former User]

@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).

Just to clarify - i'm looking for these horses to shorten / DOB in running.

Interesting concept Richard. Have never really thought about trainers 'styles' or 'preferences' in terms of types of horses they produce. Of the 3 you selected there I would say that the first one Bevardages is the closest to something I would pick for a B2L based purely on running style and DOB conversion rate. Carrying a pretty stiff penalty though for consecutive wins in his last two races and that may affect how he is put into the race.

Will be interested to see how this works out. Being ultra cautious in everything right now but I do like Ghathanfar as a B2L in the 14:45 at Newcastle.

yep - its worth testing these theories whilst racing is relaively quiet - i may even take it further to include just certain tracks as looking at my data - high strike rate at goodwood and Ripon amongst others. I'm not to worried about the increase in weights for Bavardages in terms of running syle as there isn't a massive amount of pace in race and think they will try same tactics as last three starts. Hoefully this will be enough for a trade regardless of whether the new mark stops him winning race or not.(think 10Ib is fair considering how easy it won last time).

[A Former User]

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).

Just to clarify - i'm looking for these horses to shorten / DOB in running.

Interesting concept Richard. Have never really thought about trainers 'styles' or 'preferences' in terms of types of horses they produce. Of the 3 you selected there I would say that the first one Bevardages is the closest to something I would pick for a B2L based purely on running style and DOB conversion rate. Carrying a pretty stiff penalty though for consecutive wins in his last two races and that may affect how he is put into the race.

Will be interested to see how this works out. Being ultra cautious in everything right now but I do like Ghathanfar as a B2L in the 14:45 at Newcastle.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays racing has thrown up a whole load of new scenarios where horse is priced way lower than inplay price has reached before etc.

As can be seeen I've added new columns removing more of the highest prices and then going so far as to halve the lowest reached inplay price.

This is an experiment so I'm not touching it with real mooney at the moment but the logic works for me and as long as the results keep showing a positive I will keep tracking.

[John Folan]

This post is deleted!

[Martin]

@richard-lillis thanks for this

[A Former User]

[A Former User]

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).

Just to clarify - i'm looking for these horses to shorten / DOB in running.

[A Former User]

Good morning Richard
That should be most informative and thanks for sharing.

[A Former User]

Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).

[A Former User]

This post is deleted!

[Richard Latimer]

3rd day of the experiment. 3 more wins. All numbers exact to those recorded on timeform.

[Richard Latimer]

As you can see one of the prices in question is very large even if I take the first 2 highest prices away. It may be that really is a value price for the horse in question but I don't fancy going that high anymore. I have left it on out curiosity only.

Plenty of potential so hoping for some good results to continue the experiment.

[Richard Latimer]

@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer

Richard:

Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.

Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.

Thanks

C

Ok. It is pretty difficult without referencing the website but essentially last 5 runs would have seen the horse in question perform way better than BSP in running but crucially having won no more than 1 of these.

I'm using a median average of the prices where horse didn't win (so between 4-5 prices) to find my price point. If that price point appears too low in terms of forecast and actual available odds I have taken away the highest price and averaged what remains out. Again, if the price is still too high in terms of what I'm seeing I will remove the next highest and average what remains (usually a straight average between 2 prices).

Median average seems better as removes the outliers.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer

Richard:

Can you quickly summarize what it is you are looking at here without reference to the specific website.

Would like to run some data through ProForm and see how it comes out.

Thanks

C

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

These are going really well so far.

In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.

Final race comes to an end, the final horse matches at my price point and fails to win. A 2nd day success. More of the same tomorrow hopefully.

Full results below:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

These are going really well so far.

In the 17:25 Qawamees matched at a low of 4.0. Price point was 5.4 so another win.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

Admiralty not matched at the required price point either. Nothing until 16:50 now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at this a little differently now as I noticed some other things highlighted on the winning warlock site which seemed a little more relevant.

I've now looked at just those horses who's last 5 runs saw a decent average inplay drop. You can find these easy enough by looking at only those with rosettes againsty them.

I've calculated the mean average as before with the median average to the right of this. Where these averages still look to be putting the horse either way above or cllose to it's probable starting price today I have taken away the highest in running price and calculated median average of that. Where it still looks high I have taken away the next highest and done the average of what remains (2 prices so mean/median - it's all the same).

The one other change I've made is that if the horse has won more than once in it's last 5 races it has been excluded entirely.

Scottish Summit matched as low as 2.14 for over £100 so that's 2 in the bag thus far since yesterday.

Fifth Position matched as low as 2.32. That's 3 potentials in the bag. Think I'll do this for a week and if it's profitable, start up properly next week.

Just That Lord didn't match there.

[Angus Macleod]

Anyone have any issues with the 1300 at Kempton? I had two matched at 1.81 but somehow Betfair had them registered at 1.58 and I am 100% sure I did everything correctly as when I went to the "Manual Bet" screen again, all the data was correct ready for the next race