The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Anyone back Kingdom Calling in the 14:15 at Listowel today?
1000 BSP winner
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@Tony-Hastie I used to be like that!
'well it's in the red so it must be rubbish!'
Tested for one day...
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@Martin Was about 4 points but Im getting better
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@Martin Personally I get grumpy if I end a single month with a loss on a strategy
I'd usually stick it out for a quarter though and then look at the history to see if such a losing run has ever happened before and take a view.
If it's a strategy with bets all year round and there's been no return for a quarter, I'd definitely be thinking about moving on as there are better opportunities.
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Wondering if anyone has an amount of -points that they quit a strategy on.
I think if a strategy goes to -30pts it's usually one I will put on hold, wondering what other horse traders have as their own personal limits?
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@Tony-Hastie they must have been a long way from Manchester then as the weather here is awful
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@Martin The races I managed to catch didnt look to have any adverse weather. Only 2 meets and not many selections across all my(3) strategies but a profit day is a good day!
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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
what does the draw bias number actually mean?
It's a relative measure of how favourable a particular stall is to winning the race. A value of 1.0 would mean that, all other things equal, the horses running from that stall have the same chance as every other stall of winning.
Below 1 means there's a bias towards losing the race and above 1 means there's a bias towards winning the race.
@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Is it something best used for a single course
Each combination of course, race type, distance and stall has its own draw bias value, so the course is already kind of baked in. That being said, I do sometimes still include those rules in strategies as well to reinforce the figure. Chester and Pontefract are good examples but most people know about the draw bias already so it can be harder to find value. Our draw bias figure helps you find lesser known draw biases.
@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
We should be backing a horse running from that stall?
You're usually going to be backing a stall with a draw bias greater than 1 and laying a stall with a draw bias less than 1.
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@Martin Im not sure where to start! Somewhere I guess....Is it something best used for a single course(ive seen chester mentioned a bit) or can it be added to a strategy. And what does the draw bias number actually mean? We should be backing a horse running from that stall? I really have no idea! An explanation would make a good vid for youtube
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@Tony-Hastie @Adam is looking at adding weather in, what are you struggling with on draw bias? may be able to help!
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@Martin Ive not got my head around how to incorporate draw bias in the software....and I plain cant find the hot, cold, wet, dry options to evaluate a horses performance in a particular weather either
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@John-Folan how was it mate? how are the new teeth?
Was chatting with @Adam earlier and one thing we are finding in common with our strategies is that two of the biggest influences to results seem to be draw bias and weather.
Interested in everyone's thoughts on those!
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Interested in when people consider the end of the flat season and move to jumps? Is there a particular week, day even?
I know October and April are considered the crossovers just interested in how people approach these.
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@Martin Definitely had a few unexpected winners from my perspective.
We should definitely add a weather strategy rule to the software. Surprised @John-Folan hasn't suggested it already tbh...
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@Tony-Hastie agree just about getting used to that kind of variance!
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@Martin Ive just put something together at high odds too. Just happened to watch the race the first selection was in and it was pipped at the post! Been laying so many horses felt I needed to back something
