The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Today's. Bit od a downward trend at the mo. So be a little careful
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@gareth-thomas said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Right then. I've attached a spreadsheet. First sheet is just the results. Second sheet is where I used filters to see what the winning amounts would have been if odds selection had been take into account. I split it into win and place.
Assuming I'm right (and I may not be!), you can see that of the 34 horses layed with odds of less than or equal to 2.0, it's resulted in a loss of £50. I've selected a whole other range of odds to see what the numbers look like.
For wins, the most profitable selection is only to lay when the odds are 2.0 and over. I've also identified the highest average profit per bet but it means you'd have only made 64 bets but with a 25% profit on average.
I've then done the same with the place bets which suggests that laying at 4.0 and less is the most profitable (not usually an issue for placing - only excluded 9 bets).
So, to date, if you'd only layed winners at 2.0 and above and only layed placing at 4.0 and above, it would have improved profit by a small but worthwhile £71.30, 7.1 points or about 7.4% - statistically significant.
First question is - does this make sense? and could is potentially successfully be applied to future bets.
My other thoughts are to look at the ratios of money made and lost at various groupings of odds and to see whether there's any staking plan that might help.
I'd also like to look at the napsters themselves and see what patterns emerge but I'm not sure the historical data will be available - unless anyone knows different?
what's best on the place? i don't really like the wins to lay
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Anything today @John-Folan ?
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Right then. I've attached a spreadsheet. First sheet is just the results. Second sheet is where I used filters to see what the winning amounts would have been if odds selection had been take into account. I split it into win and place.
Assuming I'm right (and I may not be!), you can see that of the 34 horses layed with odds of less than or equal to 2.0, it's resulted in a loss of £50. I've selected a whole other range of odds to see what the numbers look like.
For wins, the most profitable selection is only to lay when the odds are 2.0 and over. I've also identified the highest average profit per bet but it means you'd have only made 64 bets but with a 25% profit on average.
I've then done the same with the place bets which suggests that laying at 4.0 and less is the most profitable (not usually an issue for placing - only excluded 9 bets).
So, to date, if you'd only layed winners at 2.0 and above and only layed placing at 4.0 and above, it would have improved profit by a small but worthwhile £71.30, 7.1 points or about 7.4% - statistically significant.
First question is - does this make sense? and could is potentially successfully be applied to future bets.
My other thoughts are to look at the ratios of money made and lost at various groupings of odds and to see whether there's any staking plan that might help.
I'd also like to look at the napsters themselves and see what patterns emerge but I'm not sure the historical data will be available - unless anyone knows different?
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@cyril-reaney a lot of us are waiting for the software to drop, once that happens there will be a lot of talk.
The place nap lays have done really well, they are up and down but so much profit over the long term and I love the lay odds never really getting above 3 and often odds on!
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@gareth-thomas I'm sure it's the right place for discussion and any ideas on improvement will be welcome.
Just had a look at today's nap lays .41 out of 54 are 5/1 or less which is interesting. I find the horse racing net site useful as one can reorder naps by time/profitability and by tipster.
I'm hoping to see much more discussion on horse racing going forward. -
@gareth-thomas said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hello all, I've been taking a long look at the NAP lays. I'm convinced there's ways it can it can be improved.
From a simple odds selection range, based on historical data, I think I can show an easy increased 10% earnings and I think there's more to be had.
Is here the right place to post and discuss it?
Absolutely
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Hello all, I've been taking a long look at the NAP lays. I'm convinced there's ways it can it can be improved.
From a simple odds selection range, based on historical data, I think I can show an easy increased 10% earnings and I think there's more to be had.
Is here the right place to post and discuss it?
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Cack yesterday, here is today's
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Scratch yesterday, plenty to go at today. Usual 3.5-9
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Todays subject to odds
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@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Whats todays trobs @John-Folan
Forgot to post but only one converted and then did nothing so it saved you boys a point! Will post today’s in a bit.
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Whats todays trobs @John-Folan
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Two winners yesterday. Two trades matched and both converted. Only a couple today, but both should end up between 3.5-9
1 matched and converted
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I took slightly longer odds because he generally couldn't pick a winner if his life depended on it. However, thanks to the team here I was also on the Maria staking plan so my loss was much more limited.
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@gareth-thomas
He was on an 11 losing streak b4 that.Bunch finish a bit lucky...eventually they all hit a winner so keep an eye to odds. -
OMG!! Rob Wright of the Times picked a winner! That's the equivalent of a 6 leafed clover!
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Two winners yesterday. Two trades matched and both converted. Only a couple today, but both should end up between 3.5-9
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan hi John,what do.you do if there's 2 in a race mate,that both qualify? Cheers mate
Do the lot. I’ve checked and it’s profitable by a country mile
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@john-folan hi John,what do.you do if there's 2 in a race mate,that both qualify? Cheers mate
