The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

One yesterday that drifted like a barge and failed. A few today

[A Former User]

@john-folan any today John?

[John Folan]

Ok, definitive results. Summer jumps were actually ok which I was surprised about as all everyone does is moan about them. It literally is down to race numbers in the winter, but apart from that fill your boots. Interestingly only one NHF came up. Not really bothered but I will dig into why for the sake of it. No knowledge is bad.

[John Folan]

Nothing matched, here are tomorrows

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.

Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!

I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.

Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.

Is the flat including AW races or turf only?

Turf only. I avoid AW like the plague

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.

Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!

I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.

Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.

Is the flat including AW races or turf only?

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.

Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!

I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.

Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.

Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!

[John Folan]

I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.

[John Folan]

Point back today. As you can see I will be adding two more columns. I’m about two weeks in. Curious as to whether it’s Chases or hurdles that are costing us. I might be wrong and it’s all jumps but worth a look and good data to collect anyway.

Here are tomorrow’s

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen Good thoughts those. It’s a bit of an ask but I will go back through and add distance and race type (hurdles, flat or chase) over the next couple of weeks.

It might be the jumps need a different approach and that dob rate is not as important. That’s what I am hoping with the average tick drops. We will see.

Last year the constant rain didn’t help. Avoiding the heavy ground helped but I’m still convinced horses do not like the rain at all.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

To give a bit of perspective on these I've got the following for you. They are obviously better on the flat than the jumps. Sadly we missed a few months of the flat because of the Chinese Flu. Still profitable, just less so. Not sure what is going on with the jumps season this year as they were trying to play it down at one point because of Covid. The points figure mentioned at the bottom relates to the biggest drawdown on each. Not disastrous and gives you an idea of the number of points bank you need to operate.

Interesting overview, John.

As you say, there is a clear division between the flat season and the jumps season. Somewhere between these two seasons (or race types), something changes, i.e. some of the criteria you use for your selections are more important (or "correct", if you will) for flat races than for jumps races.
Do you have enough data to separate the two - maybe some parameters need to be more strict on the jumps races, maybe you're missing one which is very important for that type of race but doesn't matter much in flat races..?

The TROB results for jumps are still in plus every month so obviously there is still an edge even now, but given the pretty significant difference between the two race types/seasons, you'd think there is a potential to improve on the jumps races.

[John Folan]

To give a bit of perspective on these I've got the following for you. They are obviously better on the flat than the jumps. Sadly we missed a few months of the flat because of the Chinese Flu. Still profitable, just less so. Not sure what is going on with the jumps season this year as they were trying to play it down at one point because of Covid. The points figure mentioned at the bottom relates to the biggest drawdown on each. Not disastrous and gives you an idea of the number of points bank you need to operate.

[John Folan]

Frustrating start to the month

[John Folan]

@shaun-harrison said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan 15:25 at Haydock was brutal!

Yeah not sure how Golden Horde didn't trade lower but there you go.

Here are todays

[A Former User]

@john-folan 15:25 at Haydock was brutal!

[John Folan]

Started brightly then went to utter crap.

[A Former User]

@john-folan Thankyou!

[John Folan]

@shaun-harrison said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Hi John, anything to go at today? Your screenshot seems to show only yesterday's selections.

Yep just realised that!! Here's todays.

[A Former User]

@john-folan Hi John, anything to go at today? Your screenshot seems to show only yesterday's selections.