The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Spent the morning sorting these out. I hate losing money and I was pretty sure I knew what the problem was.
I have added a class filter. 0's are Irish races, generally handicaps. They don't have the same class system as over here. Other than that it is pretty obvious that top class racing is a no no. At some point I will update the sheet to reflect this.
Group 1's 2's and 3's are the split for Class 1 Handicaps. Group 3's obviously closer to class 2's.It actually makes sense that the best races are difficult to make money on.
The best races attract the most money so it's where the bookies need to be most precise. Just like in football where it's very difficult to find any value in the match odds markets for the best leagues like Premier League, La Liga, etc. The bookies have way too much information and have to be extremely good at making sure the odds are precise as they will lose a lot of money if they fail.
Although TROB'ing is a bit different than outright betting, the start odds still reflect pretty precisely the actual chance of a horse winning and this will correlate with how much you can expect a horse to over-perform in the given race.
Pretty much nailed on my thought process. That explanation makes perfect sense. I will be avoiding anything decent from now on. The group threes could just be closer to class 2’s than ones.
Agree on the trobbing. The horse will have to run relatively close to trob. Looking for an over reaction like there generally is in football when a goal is scored.
I will stick the revised spreadsheet up later when I do the trobs. Matey hasn’t added Tipperary yet so I am holding off until he does.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Spent the morning sorting these out. I hate losing money and I was pretty sure I knew what the problem was.
I have added a class filter. 0's are Irish races, generally handicaps. They don't have the same class system as over here. Other than that it is pretty obvious that top class racing is a no no. At some point I will update the sheet to reflect this.
Group 1's 2's and 3's are the split for Class 1 Handicaps. Group 3's obviously closer to class 2's.It actually makes sense that the best races are difficult to make money on.
The best races attract the most money so it's where the bookies need to be most precise. Just like in football where it's very difficult to find any value in the match odds markets for the best leagues like Premier League, La Liga, etc. The bookies have way too much information and have to be extremely good at making sure the odds are precise as they will lose a lot of money if they fail.
Although TROB'ing is a bit different than outright betting, the start odds still reflect pretty precisely the actual chance of a horse winning and this will correlate with how much you can expect a horse to over-perform in the given race.
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Spent the morning sorting these out. I hate losing money and I was pretty sure I knew what the problem was.
I have added a class filter. 0's are Irish races, generally handicaps. They don't have the same class system as over here. Other than that it is pretty obvious that top class racing is a no no. At some point I will update the sheet to reflect this.
Group 1's 2's and 3's are the split for Class 1 Handicaps. Group 3's obviously closer to class 2's. -
This post is deleted!
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Proform have a 50% discount available u TIL Thursday If anyone is interested. I’m holding out for the BTC software myself. Proform is decent tho and the entertainment you get when Simon throws his toys out of the pram whenever anyone disagrees with him is probably worth the sub money alone. Blokes got permanent PMT.
On a separate note with the Trobs there has been a lot of Class One Races lately. Trading normally struggles with those generally so it more than likely explains the downturn.
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Utter mess today. The group one and twos have killed it this week. No selections tomorrow
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Horrible Day.
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And the poor run continues
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Poor since the start of September. it will turn though
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One yesterday that drifted like a barge and failed. A few today
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@john-folan any today John?
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Ok, definitive results. Summer jumps were actually ok which I was surprised about as all everyone does is moan about them. It literally is down to race numbers in the winter, but apart from that fill your boots. Interestingly only one NHF came up. Not really bothered but I will dig into why for the sake of it. No knowledge is bad.
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Nothing matched, here are tomorrows
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.
Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!
I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.
Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.
Is the flat including AW races or turf only?
Turf only. I avoid AW like the plague
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.
Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!
I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.
Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.
Is the flat including AW races or turf only?
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.
Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!
I’m happy with it. If I remember rightly last winter was a washout. There’s just going to be less selections because of it. Nice to have it confirmed though. I will finish the rest over the next couple of days. I’ve had enough of looking at spreadsheets this morning.
Sometimes it’s nice to take a fresh look at the data. Covid has skewed things as well and probably will again. Hopefully we won’t get another 3 month break(approx) between selections.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.
Yeah, looking at that all 3 race types look solid. The overall ROI of 29% is impressive!
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I've done from the 12th August last year up until the end of June. Nothing is really costing us. I think it is just a number of races thing. There are a lot more flat selections than jumps. I've still got a lot of races to go as you can see from the attached sheet. Most of those will be flat. Will be interesting to see what nearing the summer jumps has on things. They may be worth swerving but the data will tell.
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Point back today. As you can see I will be adding two more columns. I’m about two weeks in. Curious as to whether it’s Chases or hurdles that are costing us. I might be wrong and it’s all jumps but worth a look and good data to collect anyway.
Here are tomorrow’s
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@finn-kristensen Good thoughts those. It’s a bit of an ask but I will go back through and add distance and race type (hurdles, flat or chase) over the next couple of weeks.
It might be the jumps need a different approach and that dob rate is not as important. That’s what I am hoping with the average tick drops. We will see.
Last year the constant rain didn’t help. Avoiding the heavy ground helped but I’m still convinced horses do not like the rain at all.
