@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.

whats the drawdown like now john?

Level 33

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?

Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates

thanks dan

Level 33

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-allan download to Excel then filter or remove what you don’t want. Not sure about the software however

thanks chris

Level 33

Hi Martin,

I have made a Martin's Back the Favourite 3.0. Can you have a look and tell me what you think?

0_1669902485837_Screenshot 2022-12-01 at 13-42-40 BTC Horse Racing Software.png
0_1669902508828_rules_export(2).json

Many thanks

Philip Brogan

Level 8

Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.

LOL Award
Level 150

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

0_1669890308606_SOL.JPG

LOL Award
Level 150

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

30/11/2022 14:30 Dundalk Chica Power
30/11/2022 15:00 Dundalk Maestro Stick
30/11/2022 16:00 Dundalk No Speed Limit -1
30/11/2022 16:15 Kempton Spring Glow -1
30/11/2022 17:15 Kempton Free Step -1
30/11/2022 17:30 Dundalk Turf Range

Only 3 qualified and they all lost. Our first losing month! The software shows another trade that also lost but it must have qualified later on.

Running total: -3
Software: -4

Nothing today

Level 63

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
0_1669803938089_SOL.JPG

Another 0.4 losing day. Nice to finish the month on a winner tho. Live trading has me 10 points up pretty much exactly on these for the month.

Beaten favourites about the same and flat pace. Well that was just the gravy 🙃

last edited by John Folan
LOL Award
Level 150

@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?

Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates

Level 63

@nick-allan download to Excel then filter or remove what you don’t want. Not sure about the software however

Level 107

For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?

Level 33

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
0_1669803938089_SOL.JPG

LOL Award
Level 150

I just do them on whatever strategy they are on. It’s either that or don’t touch them at all. Easiest way to deal with them. This keeps it simple.

LOL Award
Level 150

@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.

In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.

But would you also discount it from Martins Pace Lays, because the odds are within the criteria for that?

If it was me, I would still go with Martin's Pace Lays because it qualifies and the other strategy doesn't conflict with it. If we get to 14.20 and Chica Power now qualifies for C&D I'll discount them both because something has obviously happened. The way I see it is that it doesn't qualify for my C&D winners, therefore, I'm not looking at it to win and that shouldn't come into my consideration.

That is just my thought process but you'll know yourself better. Also, the C&D is more of an experiment so I would always go with whatever strategy you feel most confident in.

It'll be typical now if Chica Power doesn't qualify for C&D but wins anyway!

Level 63

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.

In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.

But would you also discount it from Martins Pace Lays, because the odds are within the criteria for that?

Level 16

@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.

In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.

Level 63

@dan-mackinnon Interesting, just raised a thought in my head, but wondering how many of you using multiple strategies use conflicting ones to remove selections, so for example, your first selection on the C & D strategy (Chica Power), is also picked out by Martins Pace Lays.

I have several horse racing strategies, I am not trading them all, but use them to validate the strategies that I am trading, so in the above example I would just ignore this horse and not back it or lay it.

Level 16

@dan-mackinnon I’m loving the change you’ve made matey, too work.

4 star strategy too!

Pro Trader
Level 191

@dan-mackinnon following with interest!

Pro Trader
Level 202

As promised, my C&D winners.

Rules:

  • Back if odds are between 2 and 7
  • Aim to get as close to race off as possible
  • I will be using £1 stakes and my results will be based on that

30/11/2022 14:30 Dundalk Chica Power
30/11/2022 15:00 Dundalk Maestro Stick
30/11/2022 16:00 Dundalk No Speed Limit
30/11/2022 16:15 Kempton Spring Glow
30/11/2022 17:15 Kempton Free Step
30/11/2022 17:30 Dundalk Turf Range

I'll check again later but right now the markets haven't formed so no point entering or looking at odds just yet.

last edited by Dan MacKinnon
Level 63
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