The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan · 30 Jun 2021, 16:32

? Offline · wrote on 29 Jun 2021, 20:03

When is the racing software due to launched?

? Offline · replied to John Folan on 29 Jun 2021, 15:25

@john-folan one fell on the roof of the truck!!!

? Offline · replied to John Folan on 29 Jun 2021, 15:02

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@w-aburn said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Not good news from Hamilton, two camera men have fallen off a cherry picker that takes the head on shots!!!

Genius

Meeting abandoned

John Folan · 29 Jun 2021, 14:11

@w-aburn said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Not good news from Hamilton, two camera men have fallen off a cherry picker that takes the head on shots!!!

Genius

? Offline · 29 Jun 2021, 14:10

Not good news from Hamilton, two camera men have fallen off a cherry picker that takes the head on shots!!!

John Folan · wrote on 29 Jun 2021, 10:38

Here are the main results if I restrict the odds to greater than 15. This is utterly ridiculous.

John Folan · wrote on 29 Jun 2021, 10:32

Ok this is a bit mental. I have been messing around trying to prove theory on odds ranges and I've come across this. The lay prices are bonkers as looking at the BSP Breakdown you would want to lay above 15.00 odds. You would occasionally get walloped by a big odds horse, but a well run bank would sort that. The filters are minimal so chances of it being backfitted are negligible. You could probably trim a bit more variance away. @Adam-Williams do you want to run this through the BTC Software and see if it gets similar results? The filters are on the first JPEG. There is nothing incorporating a rating so hopefully it should match. Anyway, I would be grateful for people's thoughts.

Full Results Spreadsheet
0_1624962751118_Results.xlsx

John Folan · wrote on 29 Jun 2021, 08:09

Both hit and one converted so a point up on the day. Just the one today. 3.5-9 as usual

John Folan · wrote on 28 Jun 2021, 09:58

I was right. Nothing hit. Two for today. Both should hit the 3.5-9 odds range. Just keep an eye on the going and don't do them if the ground turns heavy.

John Folan · wrote on 27 Jun 2021, 08:32

Two today. doubt either will hit the 3.5-9 odds

John Folan · wrote on 26 Jun 2021, 07:23

Nothing hit at all so what do I know? Here are todays. 3.5-9 odds range only

John Folan · wrote on 25 Jun 2021, 07:52

Just three today. Two should be in range later. 3.5-9 odds only

John Folan · replied to Finn Kristensen on 24 Jun 2021, 12:55

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Interesting analysis, John. May I ask you what software you use? ProForm? Still waiting for the BTC software to be released...

No Inform. I’m a little bit careful with him as there can be mistakes in some of his ratings but for stuff like this with few filters it it fine. Especially if done near the start of the days racing.

Adam is just tidying a few things up on the software before the Beta starts. I know it was meant to start Monday but he’s had to delay it slightly. The features sound great though.

Finn Kristensen · 24 Jun 2021, 12:55

@john-folan Interesting analysis, John. May I ask you what software you use? ProForm? Still waiting for the BTC software to be released...

Angus Macleod · replied to John Folan on 24 Jun 2021, 11:00

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

Would make sense. I seem to do ok lower down but above 1.7 it deffo drifts more. Like the market isn't that sure

I'm going to keep looking at the really short ones, maybe even up the stake size for less ticks and see if that works but all the while being defensive as f**k - which I believe is in fact the technical trading term

John Folan · 24 Jun 2021, 11:00

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

Would make sense. I seem to do ok lower down but above 1.7 it deffo drifts more. Like the market isn't that sure

Angus Macleod · 24 Jun 2021, 10:28

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

John Folan · 24 Jun 2021, 10:27

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Keith Anderson has me more and more convinced that odds based trends is the way to go. It works with his football stuff and 3.5-9 is the sweet spot for backing while 2-4 seems to be where you want to be for laying. There will probably be slight variations for each race discipline, handicaps or not, race types but it definitely needs digging into. Example in my next post

Example. This strategy is a simple take two ratings combined and make sure my selection is the top by 15 or more. The three racetypes that are excluded are not profitable. Now in itself it makes a profit. So this is a good starting point.

Now look at the odds range where it is successful. Pretty obvious and a lovely neat block as well.

So to tidy it up, just targeting that odds range that shows a profit you are left with this.

John Folan · 24 Jun 2021, 10:29

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Will bear that in mind thanks I've not really traded evenings or weekends, mainly just been afternoon racing as its predominantly scalping I do as I try to target higher quality races for late steamers.

Have you tried the scalp short odd favourite method? I've mentioned it before and I know a few have tried it to good success. I use it a lot as it's an easy scalp.

Favourite must be odds on.
Watch 2nd 3rd and 4th favourite.
When money comes in for them and they start moving in lay the favourite for between 5-10 ticks profit.

Works a treat. When I cannot be bothered to scalp all afternoon I use this to make a bit of easy cash.