The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A few to go at today. 3.5-9 as usual and no heavy ground. I'll look at some odds ons to lay later

One hit and converted for two points profit. Satisfying.

John Folan

A few to go at today. 3.5-9 as usual and no heavy ground. I'll look at some odds ons to lay later

John Folan

Bit of a damp squib today. Not too much lost tho. A little over a point profit f I don’t take into account the first trade that drifted. Goodwood abandoned. One race left.

John Folan

Black star Rocco. Laid at 2.22 in the 14:55. Look at its record.

May win but does not warrant that price. Ridiculous

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Short odds favourites that are too short

Laying
13:00 Redcar Sapphires Moon (Way too short based on recent form)
20:05 Newmarket Peter The Great(good price and a few unknown quantities in this race could cause it problems)
18:15 Goodwood River Pride (two obvious competitors could be better bets)
18:45 Goodwood Rushmore(very competitive race where every runner has a chance)
19:20 Goodwood Flyin Solo (again has an obvious competitor. Couple of others could put in a shift as well)
13:20 Down Royal Wester Victory (way too short at that price as other horses can compete. Also it’s Irish racing and shenanigans may be afoot)

I’ll have another look at the Irish later as the markets aren’t mature yet. But that lot are too short and probably worth a lay if the prices stay low (below 2.5. Swerve it above that).

The thing with decimal odds is it can make the favourite look better than it is. Evens 1/1 isn’t that far away from 2/1 or 3/1. Even 4/1. But they would be 3.0 4.0 and 5.0 respectively and make it look a lot less likely to happen. It’s all perception. And based on others interpretation. In a five horse race every horse has a one in five chance of winning. Those are the true odds. Everything else is just opinion.

I’ve always had success with short odd lays and it’s only laziness when I don’t do them. That said I’ve had days when I get them all wrong. Likewise I get them all right on other days. Laying at these prices you don’t need to get many right to profit. You just have to be patient.

Hopefully this poxy rain helps. Forget the going, horses hate the wet stuff. Don’t blame them. Anyone remember cross country PE in the rain?

Sapphires Moon lost. Drifted out from just above evens where I had laid it out to 3.72. I won’t count it as it has gone beyond 2.5. The market agreed it was a donkey though.

Western Victory won. Not unexpected but still worth challenging at that price.

More to follow

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

In reality only one of the 18:10 selections will hit. However watch the going and if it turns heavy during the day abandon the trades. 3.5-9 odds range as usual

Dump the lot. Ground likely to be heavy now.

John Folan

In reality only one of the 18:10 selections will hit. However watch the going and if it turns heavy during the day abandon the trades. 3.5-9 odds range as usual

John Folan

Short odds favourites that are too short

Laying
13:00 Redcar Sapphires Moon (Way too short based on recent form)
20:05 Newmarket Peter The Great(good price and a few unknown quantities in this race could cause it problems)
18:15 Goodwood River Pride (two obvious competitors could be better bets)
18:45 Goodwood Rushmore(very competitive race where every runner has a chance)
19:20 Goodwood Flyin Solo (again has an obvious competitor. Couple of others could put in a shift as well)
13:20 Down Royal Wester Victory (way too short at that price as other horses can compete. Also it’s Irish racing and shenanigans may be afoot)

I’ll have another look at the Irish later as the markets aren’t mature yet. But that lot are too short and probably worth a lay if the prices stay low (below 2.5. Swerve it above that).

The thing with decimal odds is it can make the favourite look better than it is. Evens 1/1 isn’t that far away from 2/1 or 3/1. Even 4/1. But they would be 3.0 4.0 and 5.0 respectively and make it look a lot less likely to happen. It’s all perception. And based on others interpretation. In a five horse race every horse has a one in five chance of winning. Those are the true odds. Everything else is just opinion.

I’ve always had success with short odd lays and it’s only laziness when I don’t do them. That said I’ve had days when I get them all wrong. Likewise I get them all right on other days. Laying at these prices you don’t need to get many right to profit. You just have to be patient.

Hopefully this poxy rain helps. Forget the going, horses hate the wet stuff. Don’t blame them. Anyone remember cross country PE in the rain?

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Short odds favourites have taken a real kicking today. 2/5 won. Terrible pricing. Bookies field day. Will have to start doing these again soon. Love taking those on. Especially after Stradivarius earlier. That was immensely satisfying. Odds on because he won at a much shorted distance after a fair time out. Idiots

agree there is something in this!

Might try a few today

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Short odds favourites have taken a real kicking today. 2/5 won. Terrible pricing. Bookies field day. Will have to start doing these again soon. Love taking those on. Especially after Stradivarius earlier. That was immensely satisfying. Odds on because he won at a much shorted distance after a fair time out. Idiots

agree there is something in this!

John Folan

Was worth a go. Not much lost

John Folan

It’s now a two horse race. It will be a bit of fun. I’ve doubled down as it’s now 1.09 to lay. My total liability is about £25 notes but I stand to win £200. That £25 is coming out of the £98 I got for Stradivarius earlier.

I still think it’s got Bob and no hope. But it’s so worth taking on at that price.

John Folan

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I had a look and its at Ffos Las. Lay at 1.17

Good spot at my ‘ahem’ deliberate mistake there

Steve Sandell

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Having a pop at Equus Dancer in the 20:20 at Ripon. This is purely price based as the liability is naff all. I am expecting him to win so this is a purely speculative lay based on the price. Like @Keith-Anderson I love a cheap lay . There are two non runners. That said it’s a hurdle so always stand the chance of a fall.

and its has an unseated in its form

? Offline

@john-folan I had a look and its at Ffos Las. Lay at 1.17

John Folan

Having a pop at Equus Dancer in the 20:20 at Ffos Las. This is purely price based as the liability is naff all. I am expecting him to win so this is a purely speculative lay based on the price. Like @Keith-Anderson I love a cheap lay . There are two non runners. That said it’s a hurdle so always stand the chance of a fall.

John Folan

Short odds favourites have taken a real kicking today. 2/5 won. Terrible pricing. Bookies field day. Will have to start doing these again soon. Love taking those on. Especially after Stradivarius earlier. That was immensely satisfying. Odds on because he won at a much shorted distance after a fair time out. Idiots

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Laying Stradivarius at 1.95. Value trade.

Kaboom

John Folan

@steve-sandell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Laying Stradivarius at 1.95. Value trade.

straight lay or L2B

Straight lay. Point risked for a point to gain.

Steve Sandell

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Laying Stradivarius at 1.95. Value trade.

straight lay or L2B