The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[A Former User]

Not good news from Hamilton, two camera men have fallen off a cherry picker that takes the head on shots!!!

[John Folan]

Here are the main results if I restrict the odds to greater than 15. This is utterly ridiculous.

[John Folan]

Ok this is a bit mental. I have been messing around trying to prove theory on odds ranges and I've come across this. The lay prices are bonkers as looking at the BSP Breakdown you would want to lay above 15.00 odds. You would occasionally get walloped by a big odds horse, but a well run bank would sort that. The filters are minimal so chances of it being backfitted are negligible. You could probably trim a bit more variance away. @Adam-Williams do you want to run this through the BTC Software and see if it gets similar results? The filters are on the first JPEG. There is nothing incorporating a rating so hopefully it should match. Anyway, I would be grateful for people's thoughts.

Full Results Spreadsheet
0_1624962751118_Results.xlsx

[John Folan]

Both hit and one converted so a point up on the day. Just the one today. 3.5-9 as usual

[John Folan]

I was right. Nothing hit. Two for today. Both should hit the 3.5-9 odds range. Just keep an eye on the going and don't do them if the ground turns heavy.

[John Folan]

Two today. doubt either will hit the 3.5-9 odds

[John Folan]

Nothing hit at all so what do I know? Here are todays. 3.5-9 odds range only

[John Folan]

Just three today. Two should be in range later. 3.5-9 odds only

[John Folan]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Interesting analysis, John. May I ask you what software you use? ProForm? Still waiting for the BTC software to be released...

No Inform. I’m a little bit careful with him as there can be mistakes in some of his ratings but for stuff like this with few filters it it fine. Especially if done near the start of the days racing.

Adam is just tidying a few things up on the software before the Beta starts. I know it was meant to start Monday but he’s had to delay it slightly. The features sound great though.

[Finn Kristensen]

@john-folan Interesting analysis, John. May I ask you what software you use? ProForm? Still waiting for the BTC software to be released...

[Angus Macleod]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

Would make sense. I seem to do ok lower down but above 1.7 it deffo drifts more. Like the market isn't that sure

I'm going to keep looking at the really short ones, maybe even up the stake size for less ticks and see if that works but all the while being defensive as f**k - which I believe is in fact the technical trading term

[John Folan]

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

Would make sense. I seem to do ok lower down but above 1.7 it deffo drifts more. Like the market isn't that sure

[Angus Macleod]

@John-Folan Funnily enough I have done exactly that mate Only been stung a couple of time as I've noticed (in my experience) that anything really low, like 1.4ish, doesn't seem to drift too much, especially if its been steaming all day with cracking form. I have however had better success when the price has been around 1.7/ 1.8 as then it seems to drift easily up to and sometimes beyond 2's!

Has this been your experience at all?

Initially I had been doing the opposite of this, watching for the 2nd to start moving in but sometimes I'd get caught out and it would end up being the 3rd horse that opposes the fav; so your suggestion of laying the short price made a lot of sense to me

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Keith Anderson has me more and more convinced that odds based trends is the way to go. It works with his football stuff and 3.5-9 is the sweet spot for backing while 2-4 seems to be where you want to be for laying. There will probably be slight variations for each race discipline, handicaps or not, race types but it definitely needs digging into. Example in my next post

Example. This strategy is a simple take two ratings combined and make sure my selection is the top by 15 or more. The three racetypes that are excluded are not profitable. Now in itself it makes a profit. So this is a good starting point.

Now look at the odds range where it is successful. Pretty obvious and a lovely neat block as well.

So to tidy it up, just targeting that odds range that shows a profit you are left with this.

[John Folan]

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Will bear that in mind thanks I've not really traded evenings or weekends, mainly just been afternoon racing as its predominantly scalping I do as I try to target higher quality races for late steamers.

Have you tried the scalp short odd favourite method? I've mentioned it before and I know a few have tried it to good success. I use it a lot as it's an easy scalp.

1. Favourite must be odds on.
2. Watch 2nd 3rd and 4th favourite.
3. When money comes in for them and they start moving in lay the favourite for between 5-10 ticks profit.

Works a treat. When I cannot be bothered to scalp all afternoon I use this to make a bit of easy cash.

[Angus Macleod]

Will bear that in mind thanks I've not really traded evenings or weekends, mainly just been afternoon racing as its predominantly scalping I do as I try to target higher quality races for late steamers.

[John Folan]

Keith Anderson has me more and more convinced that odds based trends is the way to go. It works with his football stuff and 3.5-9 is the sweet spot for backing while 2-4 seems to be where you want to be for laying. There will probably be slight variations for each race discipline, handicaps or not, race types but it definitely needs digging into. Example in my next post

[John Folan]

Yes is the simple answer. Saturdays and Sundays trade completely different for example. In fact I know a couple of traders who don’t go near them and just back favourites on those days.

I find Mondays and Tuesdays to be particularly poor racing. Good for scalping but not much else.

[Angus Macleod]

@John-Folan Might sound like a daft question but are there any particular days of the week that seem to be better than others with regards to trading? I'm sure I read somewhere that Mondays were usually quite crap and that the middle to end of the week seems to be better?

I know Peter Webb talks about there being "a market for every strategy and a strategy for every market" and I believe that to be true, I guess what I'm wondering is if there are days with lower quality races which should be avoided...or traded differently to my current B2L pre race set up?

[John Folan]

Last June actually only made two points. Seems to be July August where all the flat money is. Currently we are two points up for the month. Just feels like hard work I guess.

Only the one today. 3.5-9 as usual