The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Couple of prospects tomorrow I think. Will look At them properly late morning. Let the markets settle a bit and all the odds on backers get the prices down for us.
I’ll keep posting my thought process and reasons why with each selection. It helps me to read my reasons why and to make sure I’m not reaching for a trade that probably isn’t there.
3.2 points in front since posting started based on the odds I’ve laid at. I’ll get around to that spreadsheet across the next few days before the results pile up.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Today's Trob. Highly unlikely this will hit the 3.5-9 odds range.
No trade on these today.
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@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Brilliant work again John - 4pt lay peripeteia and 0.2pt Biplane at 10.96. - around 6.2pt profit before commission! - cheers!
Meant to probably get out during race but got waylaid trading the cricket (2 points profit there) so that was a nice surprise when I just checked!
Happy days!! Always love a Brucie Bonus.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Brilliant work again John - 4pt lay peripeteia and 0.2pt Biplane at 10.96. - around 6.2pt profit before commission! - cheers!
Meant to probably get out during race but got waylaid trading the cricket (2 points profit there) so that was a nice surprise when I just checked!
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan thanks for this one I had a dabble purely based on your wise words, first one on horses in forever so glad I didn't jinx you. Thanks again
Same for me also
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@john-folan thanks for this one I had a dabble purely based on your wise words, first one on horses in forever so glad I didn't jinx you. Thanks again
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Get in. Back to scratch. I love Irish racing. Only looking at a 0.3 point loss now as a worst position.
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In case you are wondering there is no point in looking at Irish racing until closer to the meet start as the odds are all over the show and the liquidity doesn’t come until late.
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Just looking at the Irish Racing at Dundalk. Laying Bright Idea in the 16:45 @1.8. Going down the card there are three or four high priced threats suggesting he won’t have it all his own way. Irish racing is a creature of its own.
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@john-folan thanks for posting these John, as someone who knows nothing about horse racing could be something I eventually look to add as a set and forget strategy
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Todays Odds On Lays.
13:38 Fakenham Italian Spirit @1.98. Significantly up on trip and not run this distance before. Obvious challenger in Loved Out.18:00 Newcastle Peripeteia @1.31. I struggled with this one a bit. But, it’s only it’s second race and whilst it finished second lto it only ran in to 6.2 from 23. Biplane to me looks a better prospect and 1.31 is way to short. I would put it on the 2.0-3.0 bracket. Massive overreaction by the bookies and I am more than happy to take it on at such a low price.
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Today's Trob. Highly unlikely this will hit the 3.5-9 odds range.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
1.5 points profit. 2.2 running total
.I will knock up a spreadsheet on these so you can keep score properly.
As for entry points. As a general rule of thumb if the horse is above 1.7 it means the market isn’t completely sure. Particularly if there is something relatively close on odds. It will more than likely drift (As Mascat did). The lower the odds the more likely it is to steam in as all the idiots back it. You are probably safe 7/10 times to leave these till nearer the off.
DO NOT TRADE IF IT IS ABOVE 2.0 and drifting. There will always be another and these are about the sub 2.0 price.
Great work!
Keep them coming!
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@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Working so only got on 1800hrs Chelmsford...happy days
Good I’m glad to hear it
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1.5 points profit. 2.2 running total
.I will knock up a spreadsheet on these so you can keep score properly.
As for entry points. As a general rule of thumb if the horse is above 1.7 it means the market isn’t completely sure. Particularly if there is something relatively close on odds. It will more than likely drift (As Mascat did). The lower the odds the more likely it is to steam in as all the idiots back it. You are probably safe 7/10 times to leave these till nearer the off.
DO NOT TRADE IF IT IS ABOVE 2.0 and drifting. There will always be another and these are about the sub 2.0 price.
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@john-folan Working so only got on 1800hrs Chelmsford...happy days
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
8:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.
15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.
16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuckonly just seen this so only got on
8:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.
15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.
16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuck
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A trob as well but currently trading below the 3.5-9 odds range
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Todays Lays
13:15 Wincanton Mascat @1.98. First race after switch to hurdles.13:45 Wincanton Island Nation @1.95. Obvious challenger in Arcade Attraction. Never run at this distance before.
18:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.
15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.
16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuck
