The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

No Manual trading for me at weekends so no LTB's. However here are the Trobs.

3.5-9 odds range. Just the one today

[John Folan]

I think the main problem a lot of people find with horse ‘systems’ is that they typically provide upto 100 points a year or season(flat/jumps). A lot of people would say this isn’t enough and to be fair they are probably right. So what is needed is a good portfolio of 10-12 good performers. Ideally each a fair bit different to the others or you may find they all go tits up(highly technical trading term) at the same time. This has happened to me a fair bit and is probably why I revert to scalping the majority of the time.

So to start with I will be looking at the different types of racing of which there are basically four.

Hurdles
Chase
Turf Flat
All Weather Flat

So a system for each of those gives you four. If you do one back system and one lay system for each there is 8. The last four will come or you do a place back and a place lay system for each and that gives you 12-16 solid systems. There will not be selections for each every day so it will be manageable.

The problem I find is that a lot of systems are too similar and rely on similar data sets or ratings so when they have a bad day they all have a bad day at the same time. I will try and stay away from that although there will always be some crossover.

I have a backing system for the flat and chase that seems to have legs as well now. Will post that up in the next couple of days. Want to look at the data more.

Let’s see how we go. Hopefully as the new software comes online we will see a lot more action in here

[John Folan]

I will be launching these soon as well. when there are some AW Races! Basically laying the BSP favourite. I hate the AW and have good success laying favourites there manually. This shows it could be automated. I've included some of the breakdown that Inform provide. This will be replicable in the BTC Software which goes into Beta shortly. I'm trying to create a few systems before I get my hands on it so I have something to work with. Ian does a lot more breaking down, but I would be playing screenshot city If I posted them all.

Rules and main results

Partial Breakdown

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This lot should all start slow. Aim to lay pre race and take a 12 tick profit inrunning. Bail if they look like they might front run and start moving through the field.

If you have the time to do these they are utter gold. Dreammaker62 is a genius. I don’t follow his exact process but inform does the job. The trick is just to not lose much if a horse starts making moves. I probably bail too early on some but there you go. Better safe than sorry. Only traded out on two for small losses today. Both lost their races. Lay to back is far easier than back to lay. Especially on longer races.

[John Folan]

Tomorrows. Usual 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

This lot should all start slow. Aim to lay pre race and take a 12 tick profit inrunning. Bail if they look like they might front run and start moving through the field.

[John Folan]

Running behind today. After a lot of thought I have decided to concentrate on the normal trobs but make them Handicap only. They perform far better as does most things horse racing on Hcaps. I will however be posting LTB/s to trade manually. The bot just kept trading out too soon on the stop loss no matter what I did.

So Filtered Trobs 3.5-9 Odds Range

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

My shortlist for a bit of LTB action today

These have been brilliant today. The bot is just crap on the flat. But manually it works if you get out at the first sign of trouble.

[John Folan]

This lot are all hold ups with crap win records. They should be good for a 6-12 tick Lay to Back. If it starts front running and the odds drop trade out for a loss DO NOT stay in hoping it will fade. Obvious signs of this are if the commentator mentions the horses name a lot and it is in the front four.

[John Folan]

Todays Trobs. All a bit static overall at the moment. Not like last June at all yet.

Filtered

Hcap

[John Folan]

Bot working better on the jumps. Might be a dead loss on the flat but I will see tomorrow. Works manually though although a bit frantic.

[John Folan]

My shortlist for a bit of LTB action today

[John Folan]

These are pretty much John's(Dreammaker62)'s rules for these. I've added in a minimum runner number and the LTO last three runstyles. The only thing I can't do is compare the odds to the forecast odds and the Master rating at inform is used rather than the Proform rating. This gives me a shortlist of horses (56 today) which I will drill down into and pick one for each race. They are not set and forget and will require discipline. Yesterday I had Waters Edge that I laid at 15 pre race. It went out to 27 by which time I was long traded out, but then went on to win. Once I have finished checking them I will put my final list up I will be attempting to trade today.

[John Folan]

Today's trobs. Usual 3.5-9 filter

Filtered

Hcap

I will be watching my LTB automation experiment today. Quite excited about that

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Problem seems to be at the start. I’m going to try getting the hedge to kick in 5 seconds after the start and see if that sorts it. If not 10 seconds. If neither of those works I will trade it manually.

Seems to have helped. Although I traded a race manually late on where the horses odds were everywhere and it was never better than 4th and never threatened. Might have just been a late evening thing tho.

I’ll run it today properly. I can see why Dreammaker62 does nothing but this though. As long as you are brutal about trading out for a tiny loss this will make you a lot of money if you have the time and patience.

I’ll start putting the selections up as potential dogs along with a detailed explanation of how to trade them once I’ve had a bit more of a run at them.

[John Folan]

Problem seems to be at the start. I’m going to try getting the hedge to kick in 5 seconds after the start and see if that sorts it. If not 10 seconds. If neither of those works I will trade it manually.

[John Folan]

Manually this works a dream. I can pick out the donkeys alright and get my 12 ticks. Problem is in the automation. It hits the stop loss way too early trades out then drifts like a barge way past my 12 points. I’m trying a few different settings and entry times. It must be solvable. If it isn’t then I’ll quite happily do it manually as it’s like taking candy from a baby.

[John Folan]

Attempting to recreate Dreammakers LTB strategy using informs race cards on the basis I can use the new BTC software that I am (after a small conversation with Adam) very excited about to do the same thing. John (dreammaker62 is his twitter handle) only does these and he makes a tidy sum. I am going to try automation.

HCAP trob backtest still going well too. I’ve just been a bit busy with personal stuff but I’ve loads of free time over the next six weeks to really nail stuff down and give you real value to work with.

[John Folan]

1 point across the two today. Only a couple of Hcaps tomorrow

[John Folan]

Same as usual today. 3.5-9

Filtered Trobs

HCaps