The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

One point profit from two trades that hit the odds filters yesterday. Here are today's. 3.5-9 as usual. Glad people like Anthony are finding other ways to trade these

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had your selection of brideswell lad @ 7.60 and set lay at 3.80 ( 0.5 pt profit )

and had platinum card @ 7.40 and got out at 4.90 ( 0.25 pt profit )

left out the others

Thanks

John Folan

Nothing matched yesrterday. Again annoying as it would have traded. here are today's. 3.5-9 as usual

John Folan

@ryan Massey's site is a bit of a mess tbh. I'll wait for the BTC software. I've made some notes and got some ideas anyway

Richard Latimer

@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Maria is the pot at the end of the rainbow - I think it's driven men mad for years trying to chase the system, build their own - I know I lost hours looking at ratings etc... trying to build something and I did very very well laying horses in the early days.

It's not to say nobody has ever replicated that kind of success in private but publicly it's a one and only thus far.

John Folan

Nothing matched on the Trobs yesterday. Just the one selection today. 3.5-9 odds range as usual. It's currently way outside that though.

Stuart Capstick

Mathematically, Maria doesn't make that much sense. For perfect risk management, you'd lay per individual case. However, any risk management is better than none.

The keys to it seem to be:

a) The compounding/ratcheting
b) High S/R

I think most people have found some filter with over 80% S/R. So, if you lay under 5, you'll make money with level stakes. If you double when the bank doubles, you are compounding.

Inevitable caveats:

There are people here who are laying at 9 and higher; Maria makes sense in this case.
As I said earlier, any form of risk management is better than none. Maria would protect against one of "those days".
Maria is very much based on high volumes of trades. It can't work well with selective trading. Again, that suits what some people here are doing.

Ryan

Maria is the pot at the end of the rainbow - I think it's driven men mad for years trying to chase the system, build their own - I know I lost hours looking at ratings etc... trying to build something and I did very very well laying horses in the early days.

John Folan

@darri not got to the end yet. I’ve been on the Massey website most of the day . Will carry on with that tomorrow. Be nice to get close.

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@richard-latimer same here with it giving the bug although i came across it much much later, i was gambling back then and not a good one, saw a few trading videos and once you start going down the path of mass info maria laying system always pops up along the way. The key is bank management in most strategies. We can paper trade to build a good selection model but mindset and bank management are the pillars to long term success. I dont use it, the main reason it works so well is the ratchet system. Think she only ever went below 35% a couple times. The ratchet system just shows the art of compounding and actually for me thats the best thing out of all of this and could be applied to a lot of peoples trading. The maria staking side will always be a good talking point. I liked reading the thread ages ago might give it a re read tomorrow.

Yep john it was given an in depth looks and DSLR was a factor including more of the massey ratings. Her dad was apparently involved in horses so it was believed she had inside connections. How true that could be considering she posted those horses i dont know. But im guessing she was privy to know what data was being used to place horses in races and meant she knew when a horse had less chance. Weird end to the thread too.

John Folan

@richard-latimer I dunno, not many people have worked it out. If anyone

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

I would also say it's a way of optimising your system. You can take on higher odds and you also reward yourself more for lower odds lays.

I agree. Like anything it’s not perfect but it works and I’ve gone through a lot of her thread now to watch it ‘live’ so as to speak.

Ratcheting your stakes helps too(not decreasing after a bad day).

I would love to work out that selection process though….

I watched a video on it last night from sportstradinglife and he said whatever edge existed is probably long gone now in terms of this seeing how old it is.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan the ratcheting is another thing I'm doing. Will require big balls at 30% down to start the day.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

I would also say it's a way of optimising your system. You can take on higher odds and you also reward yourself more for lower odds lays.

I agree. Like anything it’s not perfect but it works and I’ve gone through a lot of her thread now to watch it ‘live’ so as to speak.

Ratcheting your stakes helps too(not decreasing after a bad day).

I would love to work out that selection process though….

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

I would also say it's a way of optimising your system. You can take on higher odds and you also reward yourself more for lower odds lays.

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

As long as you think, I need the following s/r for each range to break even at the highest level.

72% up to 3.5
87% up to 7.4
92% up to 11.0

Of course in reality you will have loads in the middle ground so wouldn't need anywhere close.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon bang on

Dan MacKinnon

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

It simply allows you to take higher odds that very rarely lose but if they did lose at level stakes would cripple you.

Richard Latimer with the most simple explanation ever.

These truly are strange times we live in.

Bang on though. What I’m more interested in is finding a high strike rate laying system for the horses so we can replicate it. I think her system has something to do with DSLR(days since last run) but there is other stuff going on there.

But you boys are right. This can be adapted to football as Richard has shown .

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

It simply allows you to take higher odds that very rarely lose but if they did lose at level stakes would cripple you.