The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Also laid first two favourites in 19:00 Kempton for just over half a point total liability
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Odds On Lays 19/10
13:00 Exeter Mick Pastor @1.41. Literally a two horse race. The second favourite has run in second numerous times. I am not turning down the price to lay.
13:55 Yarmouth Clitheroe @ 1.49.
5th in its last race and it is now odds on. Quite like the look of Favourite Child for this one.14:30 Yarmouth Tarhib @1.09. I cannot turn this price down(Altior twice at this price
). Be interesting to see what effect the rain has on it.14:15 Newcastle Dubai [email protected] Up against the Menstone Gem who he lost to at this c and d on the 27th. Couple of debut horses with interesting parents.
14:20 Gowran Park Sunset [email protected]. I get the impression he doesn’t like the wet. Ground good turn heavy. That makes this race a lottery.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I have laid the top 3 favourites in the 8pm at wolves. 6 horses in the race. A point and a half maximum liability risked to win 3 points.
Favourite won so a tiny profit. Will watch for more of these
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I have laid the top 3 favourites in the 8pm at wolves. 6 horses in the race. A point and a half maximum liability risked to win 3 points.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan There definitely has to be something decent in laying favourites, especially when you consider that the price is usually driven lower by money in the market rather than by true probability. I’ve not looked at it personally but when the software is out it’ll definitely be something to look at it
So any favourite under 1.5 on the all weather is a go.
Tbh the all weather is a s**t show for favourites generally. With a bit of work we could do really well.
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@john-folan There definitely has to be something decent in laying favourites, especially when you consider that the price is usually driven lower by money in the market rather than by true probability. I’ve not looked at it personally but when the software is out it’ll definitely be something to look at it
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Just been doing some dicking around on the Adrian Massey site. It is profitable laying all odds on favourites over the last ten years. I’m sure with some work we can go higher on the odds once the horse software is available and maybe get some sort of system in place.
I will be continuing these long term regardless as they do alright and I like doing them. I always have.
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About a 0.7 loss today. That first race knackered it
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@john-folan cheers Botox Has!
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Annoying. The main challenge in the first race was a non runner. However the adjustment in odds meant the lay was at 1.03 so nothing lost
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One potential today. Hovering just above the 3.5-9.0 Odds Range
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Right let’s see how we get on with this lot
Odds On Lays 18/10
13:55 Plumpton Midnights Legacy @1.84. Couldn’t wait to lay this one(which means it now wins). Switch to hurdles for the first time. Terrible recent record and a great close challenger in Haddex Des Obeuax.
14:55 Pontefract Stag Horn @1.97. Last win was on this race last year when in really good form. Has done nothing in the three races since. Meanwhile the three closest odds wise are all in better form recently.
15:40 Plumpton. Botox Has @1.98
Just looking at the last three races was reason enough to lay it. Has good form previously but over shorter distances. Two competitions among the other two runners and it is anyone's race.16:15 Plumpton. Royaume Uni @16:15. Again recent record is awful when compared against the second favourite. This horse is well underpriced for what it is. Not been a great hurdler at all.
Nothing at Wolves at the moment but it’s early for that. Will keep an eye and see if anything is worth laying later on.
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@paul-glynn said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Bad day today - forgot about a horse I had to trade on in the 3.15 kempton and the bloody thing didn't win either - so frustrating £50 down
I hate live trading Sundays so I don’t bother anymore. Made too many c**k ups like that.
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Bad day today - forgot about a horse I had to trade on in the 3.15 kempton and the bloody thing didn't win either - so frustrating £50 down
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For the sake of keeping score
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-0.10 points loss on the lays today. Shame Beau was a non runner as I was quite confident in that one
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Bleu Berry a non runner
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No Trobs today. Will probably be a week or so until it all gets going with the changeover to jumps.
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Odds On Lays 17/10
15:40 Cork Bleu Berry. @1.6 Up against two other very good horses. Doesn’t seem to like longer distances and has failed at this distance before.
15:15 Kempton Silver Streak @1.75. Up against Sceau Royal who will definitely give him a run for his money. Not been great this year at all results wise.
14:20 Sedgefield Genuflex @1.52. Step up in distance might cause it problems. As might the second favourite. Happy taking it on at this price.
17:15 Sedgefield A Different Kind @1.50. Yes an LTO winner but so is the second favourite who will give him a run for his money. A fair bit underpriced and I would have him around evens maybe 3.0
Don’t go mad staking because I’ve had a few good days please. These horses are odds on for a reason and I have had a few days in a row where they have all won their races. Fortunately the liability is never high.
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2/3 for me today for 1.35 points profit. 4.55 since I started posting.
Last one lost despite a huge drift. Shows what the market knows.
