The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

Get in. Back to scratch. I love Irish racing. Only looking at a 0.3 point loss now as a worst position.

[John Folan]

In case you are wondering there is no point in looking at Irish racing until closer to the meet start as the odds are all over the show and the liquidity doesn’t come until late.

[John Folan]

Just looking at the Irish Racing at Dundalk. Laying Bright Idea in the 16:45 @1.8. Going down the card there are three or four high priced threats suggesting he won’t have it all his own way. Irish racing is a creature of its own.

[A Former User]

@john-folan thanks for posting these John, as someone who knows nothing about horse racing could be something I eventually look to add as a set and forget strategy

[John Folan]

Todays Odds On Lays.
13:38 Fakenham Italian Spirit @1.98. Significantly up on trip and not run this distance before. Obvious challenger in Loved Out.

18:00 Newcastle Peripeteia @1.31. I struggled with this one a bit. But, it’s only it’s second race and whilst it finished second lto it only ran in to 6.2 from 23. Biplane to me looks a better prospect and 1.31 is way to short. I would put it on the 2.0-3.0 bracket. Massive overreaction by the bookies and I am more than happy to take it on at such a low price.

[John Folan]

Today's Trob. Highly unlikely this will hit the 3.5-9 odds range.

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

1.5 points profit. 2.2 running total .

I will knock up a spreadsheet on these so you can keep score properly.

As for entry points. As a general rule of thumb if the horse is above 1.7 it means the market isn’t completely sure. Particularly if there is something relatively close on odds. It will more than likely drift (As Mascat did). The lower the odds the more likely it is to steam in as all the idiots back it. You are probably safe 7/10 times to leave these till nearer the off.

DO NOT TRADE IF IT IS ABOVE 2.0 and drifting. There will always be another and these are about the sub 2.0 price.

Great work!

Keep them coming!

[John Folan]

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Working so only got on 1800hrs Chelmsford...happy days

Good I’m glad to hear it

[John Folan]

1.5 points profit. 2.2 running total .

I will knock up a spreadsheet on these so you can keep score properly.

As for entry points. As a general rule of thumb if the horse is above 1.7 it means the market isn’t completely sure. Particularly if there is something relatively close on odds. It will more than likely drift (As Mascat did). The lower the odds the more likely it is to steam in as all the idiots back it. You are probably safe 7/10 times to leave these till nearer the off.

DO NOT TRADE IF IT IS ABOVE 2.0 and drifting. There will always be another and these are about the sub 2.0 price.

[A Former User]

@john-folan Working so only got on 1800hrs Chelmsford...happy days

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

8:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.
15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.
16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuck

only just seen this so only got on

8:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.

15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.

16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuck

[John Folan]

A trob as well but currently trading below the 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

Todays Lays
13:15 Wincanton Mascat @1.98. First race after switch to hurdles.

13:45 Wincanton Island Nation @1.95. Obvious challenger in Arcade Attraction. Never run at this distance before.

18:00 Chelmsford Tollard Royal @1.7. Cracking course for laying favourites. Horse is under a penalty which may hinder it.

15:12 Tramore Chesterville @1.98. Been s**t on the Chase so far. No reason that shouldn’t continue despite a hurdle win.

16:22 Tramore Tempo Chapter Two @1.54. Doesn’t look like it has the stamina for longer races at the moment. Plus it’s a woman’s race and they are always a clusterfuck

[John Folan]

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Todays Lays
14:13 Wetherby. Third Time Lucki @1.9. Up against a very evenly matched horse that is arguably fitter. There is nothing to choose between them.

Poor card today and that’s the only one.

Non bloody runner!

Obviously heard I said it would win and just thought ‘what’s the point?’

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Todays Lays
14:13 Wetherby. Third Time Lucki @1.9. Up against a very evenly matched horse that is arguably fitter. There is nothing to choose between them.

Poor card today and that’s the only one.

Non bloody runner!

[John Folan]

Trobs for today. 3.5-9 as usual

[John Folan]

Todays Lays
14:13 Wetherby. Third Time Lucki @1.9. Up against a very evenly matched horse that is arguably fitter. There is nothing to choose between them.

Poor card today and that’s the only one.

[John Folan]

Should be able to find a few more of these with the new software. These were from looking at past results and reading the comments.

Other things to look at:
Obvious Challenger
Current results
Up/down in class
Pace profile
Speed rating
Going.
Ever run or won at the distance
Jockey record at course
Trainer record at course.
Ever won a race?

I used to use the Proform Racecards to find all this when I had a sub but no longer think it’s worthwhile at the price for what I used it for. Especially now we will have our own shortly. Generally like 3 things that say it might be too short price wise.

Whilst I love a system (and I really do) my own judgement based on reading form isn’t bad. The old rule of trading is “if you stand to gain more than you lose on each trade and you get it right more often than you get it wrong , you WILL make a profit”.

[John Folan]

@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

0.7 pt profit from the two selections........plus a bit more trading on the photo finish as it swung towards somewhat cloudy!

was about 4 and 1.2 just after the finish then started reversing

Hahaha I was doing that too. I’d rewound the video and had the ruler out

[A Former User]

0.7 pt profit from the two selections........plus a bit more trading on the photo finish as it swung towards somewhat cloudy!

was about 4 and 1.2 just after the finish then started reversing