The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Andy Lucy

hi guys has anyone managed to create a bot for the lay 3rd fav strategy on fairbot? is it possible to do on there. thanks

kevin curry

Adam
"Good draw" will vary from course to course. I could look at adding some "draw value/bias" filters to help with this

that be great if you could i feel draw bias is very important i realize it will be a lot of data needed different tracks with different distances it will be a good extra filter to have in the armory
I

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@Adam
So the forecast price is something specific to this software. From what you say that would be static for the race and shouldnt change through the day. So i could download the qualifiers at 9am on the day of the race and it would be those values used for the backtest the next day, its not something like favourite or volume?

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@kevin-curry is that something to do with Pineapples?

Adam

@kevin-curry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hi, all I am new to BTC horse racing.
Can you help please I am looking to build my 1st horse racing strategy and if you could help me by giving me your suggested filters needed for the strategy,
Not even sure how to build it yet I am sure i get it.
I am looking to find 2 selections in a race where there is a good chance of the 2 selections finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any order.
i feel the 2 selections need to have multiple positives in today's race.
Some of my suggested filters positives
Good draw, ?
Proven at the course, ?
Proven over distance,
Proven in today's going.
Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end.
6 or more runners
Fav minimum price 6/4
2nd best price is a minimum price of 9/4

There are strategy rules for most of these, with these caveats:

"Good draw" will vary from course to course. I could look at adding some "draw value/bias" filters to help with this
There's no "won in today's going" rule (but there is for course, distance and both)
"Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end" - there's more of a bias to the early pace of the race in our pace calculations, but you could look at horses which are held up according to our rating but go on to do well in x% of their races...

With most of these, it's going to be a case of running different combinations of rules and then using the "group breakdown" feature to chop the data up in different ways and find stand-out selections for today's conditions.

Adam

@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Where does the software get its Forecast odds from?

They're compiled from a ton of different factors - recent form, distance, going, race type, etc.

How does the software deal with the ranking on Pace (for example if there are 4 horses at pace 12) how would it rank them?

Those 4 horses would all be rank 1, then the horse with the next best pace rating will be rank 5.

Greg Mitchell

@kevin-curry Not what I thought a Swinger was, but hey..

kevin curry

@Martin yes its a bet called Swinger with tote bet an overlooked bet

Martin

@kevin-curry @Adam is the two horse thing possible?

C&D can be a good indicator

kevin curry

Hi, all I am new to BTC horse racing.
Can you help please I am looking to build my 1st horse racing strategy and if you could help me by giving me your suggested filters needed for the strategy,
Not even sure how to build it yet I am sure i get it.
I am looking to find 2 selections in a race where there is a good chance of the 2 selections finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any order.
i feel the 2 selections need to have multiple positives in today's race.
Some of my suggested filters positives
Good draw, ?
Proven at the course, ?
Proven over distance,
Proven in today's going.
Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end.
6 or more runners
Fav minimum price 6/4
2nd best price is a minimum price of 9/4

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Thought i had a really good day yesterday with 36 points. But no, turns out according to the software i should of had 52 points. So another difference of more than 10 points. I know exactly why. Two bets failed to execute. One because of pace rank 1, the other because of Forecast price rank 1. The selections i had obviously dropped out promoting another horse to rank 1 (bet would of won so the theory behind the strats still worked).

So, obviously i am going to have to change my workflow. BFBM is probably going to have to be a part of that since with that you can nominate selections at any point in the day (cant with fairbot) as is deducing some things (like pace rank) myself just prior to the race.

So i can get some consistency can i ask a couple of questions?

@Adam
Where does the software get its Forecast odds from?
How does the software deal with the ranking on Pace (for example if there are 4 horses at pace 12) how would it rank them?

That way i can get the software to select races and other stuff but finalise the stuff like ranks just before the race.

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BFBM question.
LTP. The last traded price is the last traded price whenever it happens but if you are running tight time margins (like last second before start) you actually need to know when that LTP was if you want to maintain consistent results between live and backtest. Fairbot cant do this. Was wondering if BFBM could in some way. If you could use time of LTP (better if betfair official recorded time) as a criteria would be perfect. Or, if you can trigger an action on a tick for that selection might also be useful.

Anyone know if something like that would be possible.

Adam

@Adam I am only filtering based on course, race type and the beaten fav filter. Presumably the odds range in the strategy builder doesn’t have an impact on the qualifiers that are pulled through or does that need to be widened too?

@Joseph-Henderson The odds range in the Betting Rules isn't considered for the qualifiers so shouldn't matter.

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@Karl-Pick

Just checked.
Fairbot totally messed up the PL on the race. On my betfair account its been paid.

Another reason to hasten the move to BFBM by the looks of it.

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@Jonathan-Jones betfair paid out, but only on 50% of price taken.
I took 7.6, so was paid out at 3.8...just check your profit and loss to make sure you got the money!

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@Toyin-Butler ...bloody with you on that one!! Thought we had WON to be honest...counting my Winnings...Prematurely!

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@Dan-MacKinnon

Never seen it before. Fairbot shows 2 winners. The software suggests Rievaulx Raver won, My betfair bet balance says Laser Guided won. Wondered if anyone watched the race or also has bets on those horses.

Joseph Henderson

@Adam I am only filtering based on course, race type and the beaten fav filter. Presumably the odds range in the strategy builder doesn’t have an impact on the qualifiers that are pulled through or does that need to be widened too?

Adam

This is a good point! I believe we already have deadheat handling on the roadmap. I'll bring it forward as a couple have happened recently!

Toyin Butler

@Jonathan-Jones This was a dead heat, I was watching this with a nice profit that was then halved There were effectively two half winners. I didn't check to see how the software handles dead heats.