The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Someone asked for a copy of my spreadsheet. Please ignore the rules page i need to update it. This doesn't include my backtest spreadsheet which I will upload when i am finished. Once the new software comes out and this thread starts getting more active I will start a new one with selections only.

0_1622022719901_Trob Strategies.xlsx

John Folan

I am still progressing with the back test. It's taking at least a day to do each month as I have to fit other stuff in too. That said, here are todays selections.

Filtered Trobs. One selection. You are looking for 3.5-9 odds range as usual

Pure Handicaps. As above. 3.5-9 odds range. It picked up a freak winner at 120 BSP yesterday, but that was an anomaly based on the backtest so far.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Ok Normal Business. These are my filtered trobs. The ONLY race I am getting involved with is the 14:20 at mussleburgh. I am leaving the other two alone. They probably won't hit the odds filters anyway. 3.5-9 on the one I am doing as a TROB.

The Handicap list today is this. If you are getting involved then stick to the 3.5-9 odds range. I personally am doing Win and Trob inside this range for small stakes. Mostly because I want to watch happens inrunning.

Normal was -1 handicap plus 2. Picked up a winner as well. Picked up a big winner outside the odds range 3.5-9 doesn’t look profitable on those long term so a bit of a freak.

John Folan

Ok Normal Business. These are my filtered trobs. The ONLY race I am getting involved with is the 14:20 at mussleburgh. I am leaving the other two alone. They probably won't hit the odds filters anyway. 3.5-9 on the one I am doing as a TROB.

The Handicap list today is this. If you are getting involved then stick to the 3.5-9 odds range. I personally am doing Win and Trob inside this range for small stakes. Mostly because I want to watch happens inrunning.

John Folan

Ok so here are the base results upto the end of September 2019.

Impressive in itself as the only filters are 70% Dob Rate, Pure Handicap Races Only and no AW shite.

What is massively more impressive is you apply my usual odds filters of 3.5-9 you get
TROB 54.84 points
DOB 19.74 points
WIN 73.17 points
All from 105 races

So looks like the turnover on these so far is a lot more impressive and the ROI is holding up against my super duper filtered.
I will try and get through Octobers today and see where we are.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

12th August 2019 -31st August 2019. This is going to take a while but this is the start. Std and Slow are Allweather track types. Not convinced by the AW but will continue to collate them until the data says otherwise

Up to the middle of September. I’ve dumped the AW as it is proving to be as useless as I thought. Will update at the end of September then as I complete each month. Or until it all falls apart lol

John Folan

12th August 2019 -31st August 2019. This is going to take a while but this is the start. Std and Slow are Allweather track types. Not convinced by the AW but will continue to collate them until the data says otherwise

John Folan

I am going to backtest the crap out of these. I have thousands of results from august 19 to December 20.

John Folan

Nothing today on the Trobs. These however are the results so far on the pure handicaps along with today's I am tracking. I AM NOT BACKING THESE YET.

John Folan

-2 on the normals. Nicely up on the handicaps. A lot to mull on.

John Folan

Ok so I started going through the Trobs to start taking out the Mares races as they are shite and there was a rule not to trade them anyway, I haven't posted any for months but wanted to see if i had missed any. So while I was at it I started looking at the other types of races. I've added a pivot table and now have this.

As you can see Pure Handicaps, are by far the best to track. With the others combined costing a good 8 points profit across the trobs, 7 across the dobs and 15 from the wins. Now obviously these have all the other filters I use included so I am wondering if I am missing a trick here, so I have started a new spreadsheet for Handicaps only, all odds. Obviously if they are too low to do so (Using a 3.0 base for dobs and 3.5 for trobs) I will represent the trobs and dobs with a 0. There will be no other filters for the moment. Here are yesterdays results along with today's picks so you can see what I am getting at.

Going forward on the normal trobs I will only be trading pure handicaps. I will record the other results as it might be covid anomaly affected but we will see.

I will make it clear which races I am throwing money at so only trade those races

John Folan

Here are todays. Migt have something interesting on handicaps will report back, these are 3.5-9 as usual

John Folan

The rain has knocked a lot out today. 3.5-9 as usual and check the going isn't heavy later

John Folan

Nothing matched yesterday and surprisingly for a Friday there are no selections.

John Folan

Wins almost back and Trobs hovering a little lower than the high. Just the one today 3.5-9 as usual

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's. 3.5-9 as usual for the odds range. Hopefully one or two match and TROB

Two matched and two failed. Two more today. 3.5-9 as usual.

Point profit. So still steady

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's. 3.5-9 as usual for the odds range. Hopefully one or two match and TROB

Two matched and two failed. Two more today. 3.5-9 as usual.

John Folan

Today's. 3.5-9 as usual for the odds range. Hopefully one or two match and TROB

John Folan

Do people think the lack of crowds is impacting horse racing? I think the lack of on site betting and the course trader gang not being around is impacting pre race and inrunning a fair bit. I’ve turned off a couple of bots until they are back properly. Wonder if it affects the horses and jockeys as well? Thoughts?

John Folan

Nothing today from me