The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

Laying Stradivarius at 1.95. Value trade.

[John Folan]

@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Again @John-Folan appreciate the consistent effort with this thread I also am looking forward to seeing what the BTC software has and to getting familiar with it. I reckon this thread will take off then once the software is up and running.

Agree with all of that matey

[Angus Macleod]

Again @John-Folan appreciate the consistent effort with this thread I also am looking forward to seeing what the BTC software has and to getting familiar with it. I reckon this thread will take off then once the software is up and running.

[John Folan]

Sussed it. Non runners changed the rankings. That’s no good as far as I am concerned so will leave well alone.

[John Folan]

Bit concerning with the Master Ranks that it came up with a winner in this mornings results from yesterday that was not in the declarations yesterday morning. I am binning those as it can't be reliable. I've had a moan at Ian as well so will tell you what he says. Annoying really but BTC software is imminent so I will wait for that for any future systems.

Today's Trobs. 3.5-9 as usual.

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

The Master back system has got off to an underwhelming start, but we go again. Three trobs today. 3.5-9 odds range on everything as usual

Scratch on the trobs and about the same on the backs

[John Folan]

The Master back system has got off to an underwhelming start, but we go again. Three trobs today. 3.5-9 odds range on everything as usual

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Trobs. 3.5-9 odds range

First one trobbed for two points profit. Doubt the next one will match so two points from one trade.

[John Folan]

Trobs. 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Master Rank 1 backs. Lost 3 points yesterday but was unlucky with the short head loss at 6. These are todays. Again 3.5-9 odds range

Results on these so far

Today's list subject to 3.5-9 odds

[John Folan]

@kevin-pepper said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan

Hi John
I just thought I'd say thanks for all the great stuff you're posting on here (with very few responses). I look out for your posts as there's always something interesting and your thoughts about a suite of different systems really make sense to me. I'll keep following and will try and contribute as best I can.
Out of interest, have you run your latest systems through the Adrian Massey database as a check against the Inform stats? I guess there will be differences in some of the ranges used in the parameters...
Cheers
Kevin

Good thought that I’ll have a play. Problem is that a lot of the ratings are Informs own. Be interesting running them against btc’s when it’s in beta. I’ll have a go at Massey’s though. Can’t hurt.

[Kevin Pepper]

@john-folan

Hi John
I just thought I'd say thanks for all the great stuff you're posting on here (with very few responses). I look out for your posts as there's always something interesting and your thoughts about a suite of different systems really make sense to me. I'll keep following and will try and contribute as best I can.
Out of interest, have you run your latest systems through the Adrian Massey database as a check against the Inform stats? I guess there will be differences in some of the ranges used in the parameters...
Cheers
Kevin

[John Folan]

Master Rank 1 backs. Lost 3 points yesterday but was unlucky with the short head loss at 6. These are todays. Again 3.5-9 odds range

[John Folan]

Trobs for today. 3.5-9 odds range as usual/

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

In other news. I have put together a pretty sensible backing system. It had a bad year last year as per Covid, but what wasn't affected? Pretty logical filters along with my favoured 3.5-9 odds range which is where the majority of value in horse racing is. Should net an average of 8-10 points a month being conservative.

Filters

Results

Today's picks subject to odds being 3.5-9. Straight forward back the win only

Caspian Prince lost by a short head. These are going to be fun

[John Folan]

In other news. I have put together a pretty sensible backing system. It had a bad year last year as per Covid, but what wasn't affected? Pretty logical filters along with my favoured 3.5-9 odds range which is where the majority of value in horse racing is. Should net an average of 8-10 points a month being conservative.

Filters

Results

Today's picks subject to odds being 3.5-9. Straight forward back the win only

[John Folan]

No Manual trading for me at weekends so no LTB's. However here are the Trobs.

3.5-9 odds range. Just the one today

[John Folan]

I think the main problem a lot of people find with horse ‘systems’ is that they typically provide upto 100 points a year or season(flat/jumps). A lot of people would say this isn’t enough and to be fair they are probably right. So what is needed is a good portfolio of 10-12 good performers. Ideally each a fair bit different to the others or you may find they all go tits up(highly technical trading term) at the same time. This has happened to me a fair bit and is probably why I revert to scalping the majority of the time.

So to start with I will be looking at the different types of racing of which there are basically four.

Hurdles
Chase
Turf Flat
All Weather Flat

So a system for each of those gives you four. If you do one back system and one lay system for each there is 8. The last four will come or you do a place back and a place lay system for each and that gives you 12-16 solid systems. There will not be selections for each every day so it will be manageable.

The problem I find is that a lot of systems are too similar and rely on similar data sets or ratings so when they have a bad day they all have a bad day at the same time. I will try and stay away from that although there will always be some crossover.

I have a backing system for the flat and chase that seems to have legs as well now. Will post that up in the next couple of days. Want to look at the data more.

Let’s see how we go. Hopefully as the new software comes online we will see a lot more action in here

[John Folan]

I will be launching these soon as well. when there are some AW Races! Basically laying the BSP favourite. I hate the AW and have good success laying favourites there manually. This shows it could be automated. I've included some of the breakdown that Inform provide. This will be replicable in the BTC Software which goes into Beta shortly. I'm trying to create a few systems before I get my hands on it so I have something to work with. Ian does a lot more breaking down, but I would be playing screenshot city If I posted them all.

Rules and main results

Partial Breakdown

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This lot should all start slow. Aim to lay pre race and take a 12 tick profit inrunning. Bail if they look like they might front run and start moving through the field.

If you have the time to do these they are utter gold. Dreammaker62 is a genius. I don’t follow his exact process but inform does the job. The trick is just to not lose much if a horse starts making moves. I probably bail too early on some but there you go. Better safe than sorry. Only traded out on two for small losses today. Both lost their races. Lay to back is far easier than back to lay. Especially on longer races.