The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Playing about with cold jockeys at the moment
one thing i do know lay luke morris at kempton !!!! -
Cant really say im just looking for false favs so ones at top of their ratings needing to improve to win
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@andrew-page Thanks Andrew. Yeh so far in the first week or so, my “lay the top rated horse” strategy has done well.
Does it work the same way later in the year? For the transition into the start of the official jump season? My strategy numbers are not quite as clear cut for then historically.
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Its Logical horses on All weather dont always transfer form to Turf
while some may be rated 81 on All weather it could be a lowly 60 mark on turf
plenty of newcomer races for the upsets favs get turned over regular for 6 weeks until end april then form starts to settle down with ground being more consistant -
@Joseph-Henderson Around 8am.
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@Adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam Is it a simple scope filter to find price movements overnight?
Start with the "Morning price" rule, select "compare" and then compare it to the Evening Price with whichever multiplier you're looking for, e.g. 0.5 will find horses that have halved in price.
The morning price is a snapshot taken around 10:30am though I think,which is later than the highlights email as that goes out around 8am.
I'll add an "early morning price" rule so people can find the earlier moves as well.
What time will the "early morning price" feature capture roughly?
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@Andy-Donnelly if it's consistent across the past couple of years too indicates more of a trend
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@Martin Cheers. Yep will see how the next few months go. History suggests that the strategy struggles from June. May look at seeing whether flipping it from that point works
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@Andy-Donnelly sounds logical to me, I have been using months of the year a lot more in my strategies recently as I find it can have a big effect on the results.
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As it’s the official start of the flat season today was doing some reading and read a few articles that were saying that the handicappers and the official ratings are not quite as accurate in the first few months as the form lines are not quite there.
As it happens I had created a lay the ratings leader strategy last year and it hasn’t done that well so archived it. However dusted it off yesterday and noticed that during the months of April and May it has been significantly profitable every year, which may back up the above.
For the true horse racing experts, is the logic sound re handicapper struggles in changeover months?
Also does anyone use strategies for an only a limited time of the season every year?
Thinking that I will be trading (with small stakes) my old strategy between now and end of May and then leave it again but interested for views on this type of approach.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam whilst on this subject, is there a way in the tool to compare price 30 mins out with the price 1 min out as an example?
Looking at a strategy to see if horses that steam in, in final 30 mins win more often than they do.
There's no "steamed in last 30 minutes" rule as such, but you could set your entry time window as the last 30 minutes in a strategy and then use "entry time" as the group breakdown in the results. You'll then get a breakdown of trades, wins etc for each time slice within that last 30 minutes, including A/E index which will compare the actual wins vs expected wins.
Will that give you the info you need?
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@Adam whilst on this subject, is there a way in the tool to compare price 30 mins out with the price 1 min out as an example?
Looking at a strategy to see if horses that steam in, in final 30 mins win more often than they do.
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@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam Is it a simple scope filter to find price movements overnight?
Start with the "Morning price" rule, select "compare" and then compare it to the Evening Price with whichever multiplier you're looking for, e.g. 0.5 will find horses that have halved in price.
The morning price is a snapshot taken around 10:30am though I think,which is later than the highlights email as that goes out around 8am.
I'll add an "early morning price" rule so people can find the earlier moves as well.
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@Adam Is it a simple scope filter to find price movements overnight?
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@Dan-MacKinnon I've caught the last train out of Glasgow a few times....its as if the whole train is shortening
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam I'd be interested to know where the term steaming came from. Where I'm from that's what I do to veges...and shortening is the term we use...a much more accurate description I'm sure you'd agree
If you're in Glasgow "steaming" means extremely drunk.
I was gonna say, steaming used to be the state I turned up at the kebab house in, before I got too old to even stay awake past about 8pm
I have no idea where it came from actually, it's a good question!
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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Adam I'd be interested to know where the term steaming came from. Where I'm from that's what I do to veges...and shortening is the term we use...a much more accurate description I'm sure you'd agree
If you're in Glasgow "steaming" means extremely drunk.
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@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Just looking through the daily horse racing email and notice a lot of “market movers” when the price has come in over night. Has anyone ever traded these price movements? I used to follow a tipster who posted tips at 8pm the day before the race, and often these prices would shorten rapidly and I could often hedge close to the race off (quick way to get gubbed by the bookies!). Would be interested to hear any ideas.
They're definitely ones to pay attention to. I wouldn't just automatically pile on just because it's moved overnight, after all maybe it's already moved as much as it's going to, is due a correction, etc etc.
It's worth trying to figure out why it's been moving and also looking at the state of the market to see if there's still steady genuine money coming in for it, and also checking the other runners - is there one particular horse that's drifting if this one is steaming or vice versa? If so maybe it's worth taking a position on that horse as well or instead.
