The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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I’ve knocked up a bot for these. Will be changing things slightly in that getting on at just before the off or BSP. Will still be odds on only. I’ll also make the bot available on my Bfbot thread once I’ve made sure it works.
I’ll still post all selections in the morning. Anything that drifts over 2.0 will be a no bet. The reason for this is 90% are steaming and we can lay at better prices nearer the race.
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In the 8pm Gasee is now a non runner but Royal Invitation has been cut to 1.2. I am laying at that price
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I have three that are a little over odds on. I’ve asked for 1.9 and they will be no bets if I don’t get it.
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Odds On Lays 22/10
13:55 Cheltenham Camprond @1.37. Obvious challenger in Mars Harper. All Clenched Up is no slouch either. Can throw a race when odds on.
18:30 Newcastle Nicual. I have asked for 1.9. If I don’t get it I am leaving it alone. It’s currently hovering above evens. It is only so short as it has been in one race. It did nothing. Up against a horse with interesting parentage. In love interest.
19:00 Newcastle Pocket the Profit 1.9 asked for again not involved if I don’t get it. This one is on a hot streak and I think should be shorter. So the question now is why not? Up against Brazen Akoya who should be a lot shorter.
19:30 Newcastle Mobashr @1.56. Won LTO but first time on this surface. Off 117 days and may need a run for fitness.
20:00 Royal Invitation asked for 1.9 and not involved if I don’t get it. Up against Gaseee who was an LTO winner. No reason why he is so close to odds on and Gaseee isn’t.
13:10 Sligo Cirl DenNiege @1.9. I cannot see for the life of me why this horse is odds on. Like the look of the second favourite. These horses should be the other way around
16:35 Sligo Minella Crooner @1.7. Never run a race but odds on? Obvious threat in State of Honour
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Small profit on the odds on lays and the first double lay is in
0.5 points on the double lays
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Small profit on the odds on lays and the first double lay is in
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
Bit of Dob/Trob action. Might not hit the 3.5-9 odds filters but I know some of you have success trading them different ways outside of them.
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Laid first two faves
Ludlow 14:05
Thurles 13:15
Thurles 15:30Around a point total liability on each race
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21/10 Odds On Lays
13:00 Ludlow Full Of Light @1.48. The National Hunt Flat does not equal a hurdle race. He is favourite because he won last time out but there has to be a question mark against him. Could have a challenger in Clear The Runway.
13:30 Ludlow Sinndarella @1.84. Obvious challenger in Sporting Scopey in this three horse race. Also up in trip.
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1.1 loss on the day
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Non runner has cut the odds on the 16:55 right down. I’m only looking at a 1.1 points loss today now. Good that they adjust your liability if this happens. They reduced my lay price to 1.23
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Official Odds On Lay
16:33 Worcester Uncaver @1.88. Utter pile of crap the last two times out. Not run much at all the last year. Straight fight between her and the second favourite.
Bleurgh. Second favourite just run out of steam
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@james-rome said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !
Agree i know a little bit about horses only from match betting. I have wanted to start trading horses thing has been helpful
It’s about working out what information is best for you. Some of the comments from Timeform and such like are designed to get you backing them when they are obviously priced too low on form DSLR, inrunning price performance.
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Official Odds On Lay
16:33 Worcester Uncaver @1.88. Utter pile of crap the last two times out. Not run much at all the last year. Straight fight between her and the second favourite.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Just laid the fave in the 16:05 at Navan. Great price and it’s a cavalry charge!
No joy but deffo worth it. Race was all over the show
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Just laid the fave in the 16:05 at Navan. Great price and it’s a cavalry charge!
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !
Agree i know a little bit about horses only from match betting. I have wanted to start trading horses thing has been helpful
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !
Good to hear it. Hopefully lots more learning to come for all of us with the new horse software.
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@john-folan John - know nothing about the horses and unlikely to trade them for some considerable time but really appreciating your informed comments regarding the prices, an education on going and really interesting ! Thank you !
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Sadly the second didn’t play ball. Still a nice profit though. These are very much a work in progress but they have done well so far. As usual in my trading the upside outweighs the down so I only need to be right about half the time.
Keep It Simple Stupid. (KISS) trading rules.
nice work on these!
Thanks. It was just an idea. So laying the top two(probably safest if on two’s/three’s. Gives a low liability lay of two horses. You need something in the 4/5 range for the third and or fourth favourite to provide a threat. This can probably be backtested on the horse software when I get my hands on it.
