The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@dan-mackinnon thanks I wasn’t aware there was a “lay all” button. I’ll take a look
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@keith no just the Betfair website
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@dan-mackinnon are you using a bot for this? Fairbot?
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@kc Yeah, so a couple of minutes before the race start just go 'Lay All' and set it to 1.5 and then keep. The idea is that at least 2 horses will get matched. Unfortunately the first one was a loser!
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@dan-mackinnon I suppose the clue is in the name but do you lay all the horses in the race?
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@dan-mackinnon very sensible, still worth testing thing forward as well as backward
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Right, let's see how we get on. My Lay The Field strategy has some qualifiers.
Musselburgh
14.50
16.00
16.35
17.05I put my faith in the horse racing software, but will be using min. stakes!
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Beaten Fav Lays 3-11 odds only
28/04/2022 13:00 Lingfield Eight Of Diamonds N Lingfield 3.35
28/04/2022 14:30 Lingfield Dubai Immo N Lingfield 6.4
28/04/2022 15:50 Redcar Emily Post N Redcar 4.4
28/04/2022 16:25 Redcar Cabinet Maker N Redcar 11?
28/04/2022 17:10 Chelmsford City Yorktown N Chelmsford City 7.4
28/04/2022 18:00 Punchestown The Bomber Liston N Punchestown 11?
28/04/2022 18:55 Chelmsford City Vanity Affair N Chelmsford City 9
28/04/2022 19:30 Chelmsford City Pips Tune N Chelmsford City 4.7Pace Lays 3-11 odds only
None today
Short Odds Lays 1.69-2.20 odds only
2684991 28/04/2022 14:00 Lingfield Covert Mission Lingfield 2.2?
2685243 28/04/2022 18:10 Chepstow Some Nightmare Chepstow 1.96
2685276 28/04/2022 18:45 Chepstow Symbol Of Hope Chepstow 2.2? -
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Beaten Fav Lays 3-11 odds
27/04/2022 16:45 Punchestown Ganapathi N Punchestown 6.4
Pace Lays 3-11 odds
None today
Short Odds Lays 1.69-2.20 odds
27/04/2022 14:00 Pontefract King Of Tonga Pontefract 2.16
27/04/2022 15:10 Pontefract Love Your Work Pontefract 22/3 for a 0.8pt profit
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@anthony-ariss said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
15:10 Pontefract Love Your Work
LOVE YOUR WORK @Martin boom!
Happily that one appeared on my bot. Thanks Martin. Nice to see we are in virtually the same ballpark
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
15:10 Pontefract Love Your Work
LOVE YOUR WORK @Martin boom!
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@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Hi John, Thanks again for sharing your strategies mate much appreciated, On the "Slow Horses" it has 4 options under "Going" but it's only showing 3? What's the hidden one, please?
The four are Heavy, Good to Soft, Good and Good to Firm. That’s the actual going not predicted. So check the actual going from the first race on that course when placing trades if you get my drift.
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@john-folan Hi John, Thanks again for sharing your strategies mate much appreciated, On the "Slow Horses" it has 4 options under "Going" but it's only showing 3? What's the hidden one, please?
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@james-rome said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hey @John-Folan you think be possiable to do the two below without a trading bot ?
Slow Horses yes, although I've just uploaded a bot for that so I don't forget to put them on. I'll post the selections as they come up. The other one you can too but you will need to filter the races as per the criteria and then keep an eye on the odds just before the off to make sure they are between 1.8-2.4. This for example is a list of the qualifying races today alone. So you would need to watch the odds on all of them.
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Hey @John-Folan you think be possiable to do the two below without a trading bot ?
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Beaten Fav Lays 3-11 odds
27/04/2022 16:45 Punchestown Ganapathi N Punchestown 6.4
Pace Lays 3-11 odds
None today
Short Odds Lays 1.69-2.20 odds
27/04/2022 14:00 Pontefract King Of Tonga Pontefract 2.16
27/04/2022 15:10 Pontefract Love Your Work Pontefract 2 -
Now this is a thing of utter beauty. Meet "Slow Horses". The idea behind this is to Dob horses over 5.0 just before the off that have a pace rating of 2 in the software in National Hunt Flat Races. This is the first time I have come across a strategy where the Dob is better than the Trob an tbh I love it. The logic being we are targeting Hold Up type runners. Everyone (I'm looking at you Caan Berry and "the badger") tells you to target front runners. Meaning there is value in trading higher priced horses that aren't. These are the settings. Again I am avoiding higher class racing. I've included Irish racing this time too.
The execution settings, showing I am targeting a trade out of 1 point(my initial stake). Again this is the standard £1 stake to get the flat point results.
The results. Not too shabby. Double the Strike rate and Halve the number of races. The strike rate needs to be 52% or higher on Dobs. This is holding at 61% which gives us a MASSIVE(Like West Ham Apparently) Edge. Tasty ROI as well and a small drawdown.
And now the magic. Small drawdown =50point bank. Again 2% of £100 compounding would give us £811 after the first year. Anyone building a bank needs to do this. So from 2 strategies compounding you would have over £1400 with not a huge initial outlay(2 x £100). I will post these every day there are selections.
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Ok first up, this is for all you bot boys out there. I trialled this on bfbotmanager yesterday and I am really pleased to say I had exactly the same results as the software did yesterday :). I need to add a few more classification exclusions to the bot, but will do so as those races come up over the next few days. You can probably hunt these down manually everyday, but if you automate it it's easier.
This strategy is a straight laying strategy for horses between 1.8-2.4 10 seconds before the off. This first picture is the main filters. Everything is race filters apart from the odds. As it's not horse specific the software will put every horse in those races up as a potential, hence why I won't be posting them daily.
This second picture excludes certain race classifications. To be fair they only make a small loss between them but do drag down the ROI.
This is the execution settings based on £1 flat stakes. This is so I can get a per point idea of the profitability of the strategy. If it isn't profitable to flat stakes I am not interested.
This is the strategy results. The Strike rate is actually double that(So 56% and half the number of total trades). For some reason the software is counting entry and exit as two trades(even if there is no exit!). Adam is aware and is fixing this. Probably today if not shortly. Everything else is correct. So a 7% ROI and a max drawdown of (approx) 10 points,
Now this is the really, really clever bit. I wonder why Adam included this feature but, I am a total convert now. As you can see in this picture, I have changed the staking settings to 2% of a £100 bank. So in effect a 50 point bank. I am happy this is safe as the maximum drawdown is 10 points. You can use a 100 point bank if you want or whatever. You can change these setting to your hearts content. This will show why Martin, Adam and Ryan bang on about compounding.
This is the profit and loss using those compounding settings. (You can bot these as well). So across the last year starting with a £100 bank and £2 stakes you would now have a bank of £721. So a profit of £621. Try getting that at Natwest. Everyone needs to look at staking methods like this. The dropdowns are less painful than sudden doubling of stakes and the inevitable bad run that follows that and the upside on any half decent strategy is spectacular.
