The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Martin

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan do you have that set on your software? I know the horse racing software shows it on the back testing and the results can be pretty remarkable.

I remember a discussion on here a while back about the regularity of adjusting staking size. There didn’t seem to be a definite answer so always interested to hear how others do it

6 years old but just as relevant today as ever: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/road-trading-riches-compound-interest

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan do you have that set on your software? I know the horse racing software shows it on the back testing and the results can be pretty remarkable.

I remember a discussion on here a while back about the regularity of adjusting staking size. There didn’t seem to be a definite answer so always interested to hear how others do it

I check it to £1 level stakes(1 point). If that’s profitable I check it to compounding. Either at 2% or 1% of bank.

There’s been loads of arguments. But I find this works best for me.

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan do you have that set on your software? I know the horse racing software shows it on the back testing and the results can be pretty remarkable.

I remember a discussion on here a while back about the regularity of adjusting staking size. There didn’t seem to be a definite answer so always interested to hear how others do it

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan how often are you compounding?

As it goes along mate. Always have done. Less big hits that way. If a strategy is any good it will soon grow. Try using the percentage of bank in the staking section and you will see what I mean.

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan how often are you compounding?

John Folan

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh come on. You know it’s true. I know why it happens as well.

99/100 you put money on after a half decent winning run so you get caught by the reversion to the mean. Same with stake increases. This is why I compound as I go along. Don’t get caught out. The best thing I have ever learnt trading wise.

I'm laughing because I have seen it so many times but never seen it described so accurately
Yes compounding is amazing

So true though isn’t it

? Offline

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh come on. You know it’s true. I know why it happens as well.

99/100 you put money on after a half decent winning run so you get caught by the reversion to the mean. Same with stake increases. This is why I compound as I go along. Don’t get caught out. The best thing I have ever learnt trading wise.

I'm laughing because I have seen it so many times but never seen it described so accurately
Yes compounding is amazing

John Folan

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

“I’ve put money on it so here is the initial losing run to make you s**t your pants and bottle out of it moment”.

Oh come on. You know it’s true. I know why it happens as well.

99/100 you put money on after a half decent winning run so you get caught by the reversion to the mean. Same with stake increases. This is why I compound as I go along. Don’t get caught out. The best thing I have ever learnt trading wise.

? Offline

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

“I’ve put money on it so here is the initial losing run to make you s**t your pants and bottle out of it moment”.

John Folan

Blimey. Storming day on the short odds lay bot. Made back over half of the “I’ve put money on it so here is the initial losing run to make you s**t your pants and bottle out of it moment”.

Hopefully will be some dob/trob selections tomorrow for you all. Got a couple now showing around 60 points a year profit as well as Slow Horses and the DR Trobs. Will post them as they qualify.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

The flat season is upon us :). Today's trobs

Scratch. Annoying but that’s trading.

John Folan

Seeing a lot of confusion in various places over the horse racing software. I’ve traded horses for over six years and I’m still learning. This terminology guide isn’t a bad place to start and might give you some ideas for filters etc. The software is a steep learning curve, especially the strategy builder. Also maybe take a look at the race cards, there is some good information on there that might point you in the right direction.

https://www.greatbritishracing.com/guide-to-racing/jargon-buster/

John Folan

The flat season is upon us :). Today's trobs

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Awful day yesterday, I'm going to go back to paper trading these for a while.

What I have noticed is that ones who come in closer to the off often win, so I may just remove any that would not qualify when I check in the morning and see if that can help.

It’s changeover month mate. Bad days happen and can hurt in horse racing. My short odd lay bot is 10 points down in three days. I’m happy with the backtest though and it has seen this before. As long as it’s not out of kilter with previous lows they should be more than fine.

Not a bad idea to just watch the results for a few weeks and see if it falls within the data set you have.

Also really good point on steamers. A good sign the market knows.

Martin

Awful day yesterday, I'm going to go back to paper trading these for a while.

What I have noticed is that ones who come in closer to the off often win, so I may just remove any that would not qualify when I check in the morning and see if that can help.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

These were crap yesterday. So were my botted short odd lays. However looking over previous results on both and April and October are always iffy as the racing switches from jumps to flat and vice versa. Nothing major and nothing to worry about. However that is another benefit of the software .

Todays trobs. Still no NHF racing.

Made back yesterdays loss in the one trade that hit the odds filter

Rick Watson

@john-folan iv had a little flick through excellent content from you john . Have the boys put you on the pay roll yet. As cheif tester . If not think they should. I can see the future prests / profitable members filters all containing johns strategy for ........ pmsl

Rick Watson

@john-folan thanks mate il have a shifty through.

John Folan

@rick-watson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

hi all i invested in the long awaited holy grail last night iv watched so many videos over and over and brain my brain is hurting pmsl. has anyone come up with a basic dob strat yet that could be tinkerd with

If you scroll back over the last week on this thread and The horse software one I have posted settings for dobbing

Martin

Not got time to post today but here is my sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bZltAAa9SvEcnlR_pUbJu-JY_o1DJ3LQ0uvLwSwnwQ4/edit?usp=sharing