The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

@keith I make you right. Going to be a lot of tweaking going forward to get results matching. Good learning curve though. So Pace showed a loss yesterday even though it should have been a 5 point profit

[A Former User]

@john-folan makes sense to me mate. Yes better to let BFBM do it at the off time

[John Folan]

I have an interesting conundrum. On the Flat Pace Backs, it is more profitable to restrict runner numbers between 4-14 per race. It's obvious as you can see below. Now I ran the races off yesterday and it missed a horse called Invincibly in the 14:55 at Carlisle as it had 17 runners in that race so didn't show in the software. Obviously it then won at a price of 11.5(ffs). It also shows in the software today as there were three non runners so it hit 14 the maximum.

So I am thinking I do the upcoming Qualifiers without the odds restrictions. Load them into bfbotmanager which will then restrict them based on runner numbers 11 minutes before the off when bets are placed. All I will need to do is keep two versions of the strategy. One with runners restricted that I will use to compare results and one to get the selections without the restrictions so that this doesn't happen that often apart from very late non runners. Make sense?

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Flat Pace Backs. Back any between 2.0-25.0

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20

Poor day today on these. I’m ready for the LLR or 15 though so all good.

Short odds lay bits done ok tho

[John Folan]

@keith-driscoll said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?

It's worth the effort for a number of tracks, as I showed in the past with Chester. For instance, find the AW track with the shortest run in, and the same system works over certain distances. You can also group similar tracks, Chepstow, York, Newbury, Haydock, Doncaster, etc, all have very long run-ins.

On a totally different variable, horses that travel a long way north, tend to be better class, than those travelling the same distance south when it comes to turf races.

Thank you to you and @Dan-MacKinnon . Won't give up yet and your tips are providing some progress. Was probably a bit fed up yesterday lol

[John Folan]

Flat Pace Backs. Back any between 2.0-25.0

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20

[Dan MacKinnon]

@john-folan when I tried using that same book I found I had to split them into long and short courses. I'm sure it can be done but using the information in his book there doesn't seem to be a one size fits all approach that I could find

[Keith Driscoll]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?

It's worth the effort for a number of tracks, as I showed in the past with Chester. For instance, find the AW track with the shortest run in, and the same system works over certain distances. You can also group similar tracks, Chepstow, York, Newbury, Haydock, Doncaster, etc, all have very long run-ins.

On a totally different variable, horses that travel a long way north, tend to be better class, than those travelling the same distance south when it comes to turf races.

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Quiet today, but I should get some hits on the Short Odd Lay and Back Favourite Bots.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Back the Win for any between 3.5-9(I've decided to keep that odds range. If it ain't broke etc).

Nothing matched. One short odds lay that decided to win it’s race. Bloody liberty

[John Folan]

Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?

[John Folan]

Quiet today, but I should get some hits on the Short Odd Lay and Back Favourite Bots.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Back the Win for any between 3.5-9(I've decided to keep that odds range. If it ain't broke etc).

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Pace Backs: Back any between 2.0-25.0

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6

Zero Paced Dobs
Dob any over 20

Profit on the Flat Pace and Slow Horses. 1 point loss on the ZPD’s in the money overall.

[John Folan]

Pace Backs: Back any between 2.0-25.0

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6

Zero Paced Dobs
Dob any over 20

[A Former User]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Lay The Field.

So according to Mr Kemp, distance and runner numbers seem to be the main filters at different courses. I’m pretty sure this has something to do with the type of course(characteristics) and race type(turf, aw, chase, hurdles, nhf). I’m going to try different price points as well. 1.25, 1.5 and 1.75 for starters. Any other suggestions gratefully received. Not sure how I feel about Irish racing but will include until stats say leave alone. Since they removed their trier rule a couple of years ago some of the results over there have been ridiculous. Also fun watching Ruby Murray throwing himself off an odds on favourite when lengths clear on occasion! We must be able to crack this trading type on here.

This is interesting, I've not read his book.
What about class and race type? Going?

[John Folan]

Lay The Field.

So according to Mr Kemp, distance and runner numbers seem to be the main filters at different courses. I’m pretty sure this has something to do with the type of course(characteristics) and race type(turf, aw, chase, hurdles, nhf). I’m going to try different price points as well. 1.25, 1.5 and 1.75 for starters. Any other suggestions gratefully received. Not sure how I feel about Irish racing but will include until stats say leave alone. Since they removed their trier rule a couple of years ago some of the results over there have been ridiculous. Also fun watching Ruby Murray throwing himself off an odds on favourite when lengths clear on occasion! We must be able to crack this trading type on here.

[John Folan]

About a point from what matched today.

[John Folan]

Today's
Trobs: Anything between 3.5-9. Trob Dob or win.

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0

Zero Paced. Dob any over 20

[John Folan]

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan sounds like how I feel about 3pm Saturday footy matches!

Exactly that . It’s so strange. We know they are profitable we just remember the bad days more. Strange hey?

[Martin]

@john-folan sounds like how I feel about 3pm Saturday footy matches!

[John Folan]

Utter pony day today. I always had a thing about Saturdays being crap but statistically they are one of the best trading days for me long term. I think I just notice the crap ones more. Which says a lot about my mindset