The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Mark Maguire

@John-Folan thats the kind of thing I wanted to ask.. I'll admit to being a complete ignoramus when it comes to how to approach trading the horses.

I've been interested for a while, think it will work well long term to sit alongside football.

I've basically done a load of studying and, rightly or wrongly, decided to create a model which ranks the horses for every race I've made it easy enough in terms of time setting up a power query which then feeds into a pivot table and finally a probability model looking at about twenty different comparisons between runners and those split into positive and negative factors... ending in a ranked order .. I've been measuring paper trading/min stakes the results and am pretty happy so far on the basis that:

After the initial data download I can get the ranking done in 5 mins or so for each race.
Its finding winners and places with decent regularity - focussing on 1st and 2nd ranked in my model .. 1st ranked wins or is placed 80% (stress this is very early days) and 2nd ranked 70%.

So now as I continue to monitor and refine this its about how I look at trading it - I'm measuring odds and will try and get some stats of movements as the amount of data improves but in my ignorance its about understanding how to find the best way to trade - which is why suggestions like backing the place or dobbing will take me in a direction that I can learn .. and improve .

John Folan

@Mark-Maguire so the stuff between 3.0 to 5.5 you might want to look at for dobbing?

Mark Maguire

@John-Folan the range has generally been between 2.02 and 5.5 with a couple of outliers (one at 55 which came in but I wont build anything hoping/expecting that happens every week )

John Folan

@Mark-Maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan thats great thanks will look at that and test for a little while

What sort of odd ranges are you playing with?

On the win side?

Mark Maguire

@John-Folan thats great thanks will look at that and test for a little while

Mark Maguire

@Martin Yes Martin .. will do , again thank you

Martin

@Mark-Maguire assume that's to win prices? may be worth looking at place ones

John Folan

@Mark-Maguire said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan I'm looking for some advice please .. Its very early days but I've created a model for horse racing which early impressions are has something about it..

I'm plugging all runners into a stats model using BTC stats and a couple from elsewhere .. ranking the horses .

So far the strike rate of my 1st of 2nd favourite finishing in a place is really quite good...one of both of them finishing in place 80% plus .. I spoke with Ryan earlier but as I develop and test this want to consider the best way to trade it.. back to lay, or for example Ryan suggested dutching.. I've put a fair bit of work into the model but the clever bit will be how to trade the selections.. and help welcome

I’ve never dutched but would follow Martins comment. Backing the place is so under utilised and there is probably a lot of value there

Mark Maguire

@Martin brill will do thanks .. odds range so far from 2.8 to upper 4's with the occasional crazy outsider thrown in .. thanks as usual

Martin

@Mark-Maguire maybe have a look at odds ranges and how they perform, place backing could be big value if the odds are good!

Mark Maguire

@John-Folan I'm looking for some advice please .. Its very early days but I've created a model for horse racing which early impressions are has something about it..

I'm plugging all runners into a stats model using BTC stats and a couple from elsewhere .. ranking the horses .

So far the strike rate of my 1st of 2nd favourite finishing in a place is really quite good...one of both of them finishing in place 80% plus .. I spoke with Ryan earlier but as I develop and test this want to consider the best way to trade it.. back to lay, or for example Ryan suggested dutching.. I've put a fair bit of work into the model but the clever bit will be how to trade the selections.. and help welcome

Martin

@alexander-hughes good to see people having a good month!

alexander hughes

@Martin LBF star performer +36 up to last night.

Martin

@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin Lay the 3rd fav still rocking it. A loss on the final selection yesterday ended a 20+ win(lose!) streak

brilliant stuff!

Tony Hastie

@Martin Lay the 3rd fav still rocking it. A loss on the final selection yesterday ended a 20+ win(lose!) streak

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Coming towards the end of the month, will do some analysis on my strategies in a few days but how has everyone's month gone?

Sort of ok. One strategy a bit meh but the proper trading(dob and trob) have been good.

Martin

Coming towards the end of the month, will do some analysis on my strategies in a few days but how has everyone's month gone?

Martin

@John-Folan had one this week where I backed the draw in Wigan game prematch set and forget, saw the score 0-0 at 90+5 and thought nice a winner. Goal in 90+20

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Dan-MacKinnon that's why a break even day is such an anti-climax!

I don’t mind them. Especially when I’ve looked earlier and I was down. Not so keen the other way round lol

Martin

@Dan-MacKinnon that's why a break even day is such an anti-climax!