The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Robert H

@john-folan With your trobs post it doesn't have any of todays races only the 18th

Martin

@john-folan when do you usually enter your trades?

John Folan

I’ve got a couple of things I’m testing. Again like Martin I’m investigating course filters which seem to be a pretty major thing. I’ll make them available as I finish them.

? Offline

@dan-mackinnon fair enough looking forward to getting involved when more places released

Angus Macleod

Encouraging to see folk getting stuck in with the software @John-Folan looks like the horse racing thread is no longer like your own solo blog mate

Definitely think there is something in LTF. I pissed about with it a while back at odds of 1.8 figuring that the strike rate might be higher albeit for lower gains. Difference was I was mainly placing the lays in play while watching the live feed. Essentially I was looking for horses that would bunch up in the latter portions of the race. Again, I found this seemed to happen more in competitive races but occasionally on ones with an obvious fav.

Not sure if this info is of any use as I am more of a pre race trader and was just messing about with min stakes on LTF in play.

Martin

I'm developing a promising looking beaten fav strategy, just need to filter courses etc then I will share

Dan MacKinnon

@chris-osborne they do, but when I did the back testing it was set between 11am to 9pm. I originally thought if short A/W races that are tight maybe this is ideal LTF races. But the back testing showed 1-5pm was the sweet spot. Straight away this software is proving worthwhile because it challenges what I would have gone with originally

John Folan

Today's Trobs subject to the usual 3.5-9 odds range.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@stuart-wallace when I hover over it says "class number of the race". When I look one of the courses the classes are 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5.

Yes definitely. A problem shared and all that

Here you go. Its a way of making sure horses with a very high handicap isn't put up against (allegedly) a horse with a much lower handicap. This table should help

? Offline

@dan-mackinnon in the same camp as you but don’t a lot of meetings take place in the evenings especially in the summer

Dan MacKinnon

Here we go, as promised my first and probably awful strategy attempt for the horses. After a fair bit of tinkering around...

Lay The Field
What has to happen? At least 2 horses need to hit the pre-race lay bet that is queued at 1.5. If only 1 hits then lose 50% of stake, if 2 hit win 50%, if 3 hits 150%, etc. Therefore, it needs to be relatively competitive so no odds-on favourite. One horse can start strong and fade while another starts slow and finishes strong (not sure how to do this on the software). There needs to be a decent number of horses so minimum no. of runners is 6.

How to minimise risk? Reduce odds from 1.5 to 1.4 to decrease liability and increase profit, however when back testing this proved less profitable. I also tested 1.6 and 1.7 thinking more horses might hit that, but again back testing said 1.5 is most profitable.

Taking all that into account I used the following rules:

Time of Day: 1-5pm used back testing and morning/ evenings are not profitable
Day of the week: Mon & Fri only Saturday is the next profitable day
Runners: 6-14
Race Type: A/W, Chase & Turf
Distance: 6f - 20f I think this can be adjusted but I was aiming for shorter races
Fav Price: Value 2-100

The profit rating is 1 star but I have no idea how to get it any higher!
Profit from £1 trades is £77.52
ROI 10%
SR 17%
LWS 5
LLS 12
Biggest loss from £1: -£0.57
Max drawdown (£1 stakes): £5.21

If anyone has any comments or can point out the blatant errors I've made then please let me know. If I found a football strategy that was 10% ROI I'd be over the moon!

If anyone knows how to get above 1 star can you also let me know

Dan MacKinnon

@stuart-wallace when I hover over it says "class number of the race". When I look one of the courses the classes are 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5.

Yes definitely. A problem shared and all that

Stuart Wallace

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I'm sure this is going to be a stupid question, but what does "class" mean? From having a quick Google is Class 1 like the Premier League, 2 the Championship, etc.? How bad is Class 5 and 6 or is it not as simple as that? Is it more like a boxing night and they're the newcomers?

I'm the same mate. I was persona non grata for being in for the opening call of the software, but looking at Martins vlog, is there not an explanation of the columns if you hover over them? otherwise, maybe a glossary of what all the fields are might be useful.

Sounds like me and you are at the same level mate - obviously class Z
Hope to get in on next tranche of members allowed access and then we can talk horse bollox together.

Dan MacKinnon

I'm sure this is going to be a stupid question, but what does "class" mean? From having a quick Google is Class 1 like the Premier League, 2 the Championship, etc.? How bad is Class 5 and 6 or is it not as simple as that? Is it more like a boxing night and they're the newcomers?

Martin

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin it wasn't a strategy, it was just me putting in criteria to see how it compares with creating filters on the football software. So far looks really impressive!

I could spend hours and hours on the back testing alone, it's like game to me

Dan MacKinnon

@martin it wasn't a strategy, it was just me putting in criteria to see how it compares with creating filters on the football software. So far looks really impressive!

Martin

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin Signed up!

great work just seen it's sold out already!

Martin

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Just got in now, reminded me of when you've been expecting a death in the family for a while but it still comes as a shock when it happens

I've also given it a go. Just messed about with the strategy builder and it came back with a 1 star and -500% return. Seems about right for me and horse racing!

Time to start reading "Laying the Field" someone recommended on here a while back. It's currently free on Kindle Unlimited.

Try the reverse of that strategy! What stakes is that to?

? Offline

@Martin Signed up!

Dan MacKinnon

@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Just got in now, reminded me of when you've been expecting a death in the family for a while but it still comes as a shock when it happens

I've also given it a go. Just messed about with the strategy builder and it came back with a 1 star and -500% return. Seems about right for me and horse racing!

Time to start reading "Laying the Field" someone recommended on here a while back. It's currently free on Kindle Unlimited.