The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Todays
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONEFlat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
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@jonathan-jones We do know the BSP Favourite, 2nd Fav, 3rd Fav, as soon as the horses are off. The way to make use of those stats in the real world is to place bets between 2s to 4s after the off, which is how I handle it. You need software to do that, such as Bet Angel, BF Bot Manager, etc. Prices will not always match BSP, but they average out over the long-term.
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@adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The way we're going to tackle that is by capturing the price rank every time we write a runner price entry.
That will mean we can later query the fave, 2nd fave etc at any point in time!
Great. Any idea on timescale for this one?
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@adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The way we're going to tackle that is by capturing the price rank every time we write a runner price entry.
That will mean we can later query the fave, 2nd fave etc at any point in time!
Genius!!!
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Got another question about the Horse racing strategy builder. The criteria 'Favourite', how is that defined? I am assuming its based on betfair row position but when? Is it dynamic (so based on betfair row position at that time) or based on what the row position ends up at BSP?
Reason i am asking is i have set up a filter that excludes the favourite and 2nd favourite and looks to enter at 59mins before the official start for horses within a particular odds range. So, i need to know if its going to be looking at the favourites at its entry time or its looking into the future for the favourite at BSP because obviously that can change in the last hour. At the moment its looking very profitable for an outright bet which makes me wonder if the software is doing some magic future looking.
It’s BSP favourite so no use unless you are backing just before the off when the favourite is usually known. I’ve asked Adam about favourite at time of entry. If that can’t be don’t then maybe at certain points(1 hour, 30 minutes, 10 minutes etc). Pretty sure a blanket one for every time possible will break the server as the calculations would be immense.
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Got another question about the Horse racing strategy builder. The criteria 'Favourite', how is that defined? I am assuming its based on betfair row position but when? Is it dynamic (so based on betfair row position at that time) or based on what the row position ends up at BSP?
Reason i am asking is i have set up a filter that excludes the favourite and 2nd favourite and looks to enter at 59mins before the official start for horses within a particular odds range. So, i need to know if its going to be looking at the favourites at its entry time or its looking into the future for the favourite at BSP because obviously that can change in the last hour. At the moment its looking very profitable for an outright bet which makes me wonder if the software is doing some magic future looking.
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@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan Flat pace loaded in!
Aberama Gold lost by a head. Knocking on the door I think.
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@john-folan Flat pace loaded in!
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Bit quiet today
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONEFlat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@nick-allan I've also got a few ideas around this as well
beauty of the software is that I can plug in my ideas and find out pretty quickly if its worth following up with. -
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan nice one john, does the software have a percentage decrease inplay running feature?
It has a lowest and highest price inrunning against bsp feature so as a simple example you can do lowest price inrunning =50% of bsp(so a dob) 70% of last x runs
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@john-folan nice one john, does the software have a percentage decrease inplay running feature?
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@nick-allan working on it
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I'm interested in purchasing the horse trading software, but in the past I've only really traded lay to back, now I know that you could create a system using the software, but having a look at the set forget strategies there doesn't appear to be one for a lay to back, is there any profitable lay to back strategies available that I could test?
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@jonathan-jones makes sense that. Less of a problem trading the top few in the price rankings as plenty of dollar there to get in and out.
Stuff like this is great as there are some sharp minds on here and between us all we will soon work out what’s worth bothering with and what isn’t.
Pre race being a prime example. Last 20 minutes there’s enough money to get in and there is no problems trading out the closer to the off you get. Yes you can use the software to target horses to trade pre race. I have one in test at the moment and it is matching the bot exactly. But again I am targeting odds below 20 where the majority of the liquidity is. Upscale able is the new watch word. Pretty irrelevant for straight lays or backs as most things get matched. But especially for inrunning you need to know it’s ok. There is a traded volume filter in the software that should help.
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@adam said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Re your exit settings, your understanding looks right. Just to double check though, you're targeting 10 points profit, which would be 10 x your stake. Is that what you're expecting, or are you expecting 10% of your stake? We had some debate over what the definition of a "point" should be in the early stages of development.
I set it up in the automation the same way i set up the DOB. In the backtester the DOBs are set up at profit = 1, In fairbot this translates to 'odds = 1', so for this its 'odds = 10'. I will check some individual trades to see if i can get a better understanding of what exactly is going on but from the responses it is looking like its the combination of of the general 'randomness' introduced by the 'trade out' compounded by the liquidity gaps on the horses this strategy is targetting.
So, still. I think we all need to look at the strategies we create then take a view based on all the above as to how well real life will conform to the backtest (Probably more accurate saying it that way round than 'backtest conform to real life').
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan do you have an odds limit on slow horses? I know you scrapped zero on the higher odds being hard to green up on.
Not at the moment. These seem to work ok for some reason. I’m looking at them this week to see if they can’t be refined with different entry points.
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@john-folan do you have an odds limit on slow horses? I know you scrapped zero on the higher odds being hard to green up on.
