The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[A Former User]

I mentioned a while ago that I am working on discovering what if any angles can be used to deploy LTF once racing resumes in UK/IE. Still going through the masses of data but I can share with you this piece that shows the futility of using a set-point for your trades anywhere close to even money.

I looked at every flat race run in the UK/IE for 2019 that had at least 6 runners, 4222 of them to be exact. Then I looked at what the LIR was for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in each of those races and calculated the P/L for two simple entry points....1.99 and 1.31.

Of course will no selection criteria applied both of them were net losers but it illustrated clearly what you need to be looking at.

Of the 4,222 races: 1,520 had only one horse (the winner) trading less than 2.0, 2,265 had 2 horses trading less than 2.0, 407 had 3 horses and 30 had 4 horses. Your net loss if you laid at 1.99 would have been -1,053 pts.

Of the 4,222 races: 3,324 had only 1 horses trading at 1.31 or lower, 869 had 2 at that price, 28 had 3, and 1 had 4. Net loss trading at 1.31 would have been -338.6 pts.

The point here is that you can't turn that first concept into a winning one no matter what you do.

Will be back when I finished my complete analysis but I believe that course and distance filters are going to be the key and that potentially using two entry points to maximize the positive side of winning trades whilst maintaining steady liability will be the way to go.

[Richard Latimer]

That said, the 13:35 looks like it may be good

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing qualifying so far anyway

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer
4 group races on card tommorow as catching up from lockdown, so money will be very good I would think

[Richard Latimer]

@alan-steward decent amount of money already down. French racing bigger than German.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Didnt really notice field size mate but having said that I feel it would be wise to see how their markets trade first ie how quickly monies trade but more importantly how much monies are traded inplay... Will be keeping an eye on it and run both meetings in simulation mode

[Richard Latimer]

Ok who's going to try this out at Longchamp tomorrow? Do we have a max race size? Most U.S. races are small fields but a couple of these French ones are quite large.

[A Former User]

Check out the price crash on racing to resume on or before 1st june

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

21:06 looks good

More evidence that 2.04 MAY be the way to go. 1 matched @ 2.02. Another horses traded @ 2.04 for over £100.00.

[Richard Latimer]

21:06 looks good

[james everard]

@richard-latimer Fingers x , testing slightly different ways is good as we will find the best method eventually. Off to Aldi's now can't wait speak in a while

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?

Very early days and nothing much has matched.

[james everard]

@richard-latimer How are you getting on with this variation?

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer I can see where you're coming from with that mate, be interesting to see how it rolls out

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@alan-steward Ok that's what I thought . Get on with your dinner mate you will be in trouble

I am trialling laying the field less short priced fav when it goes under 4.0 though. If the fav bolts you lose nothing and it if matches but loses you gain at least a point. If 3 others match you also win a point.

[james everard]

@richard-latimer Ok cheers mate thought so, no point diverting away from the rules

[A Former User]

Shes still washing her hair mate lol

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer Fair enough just trying to work different angles. So if 2 get matched at 2.04 and one goes onto win we make nothing so we are needing 3 matched to make a profit.
What are you thoughts on the next race or do you think it doesn't meet the criteria as just over a mile?

I'm not doing it. Our records are for 6f to 1m.

[james everard]

@alan-steward Ok that's what I thought . Get on with your dinner mate you will be in trouble

[A Former User]

@james-everard Personally I dont think you'll make money with only two matching. How I see it is about scratching as much as poss with 2 @ 1.98/2.04 and look for the 3rd for profits... That's my opinion anyway... Let's see how the numbers go