The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Mark Maguire

@John-Folan I'm looking for some advice please .. Its very early days but I've created a model for horse racing which early impressions are has something about it..

I'm plugging all runners into a stats model using BTC stats and a couple from elsewhere .. ranking the horses .

So far the strike rate of my 1st of 2nd favourite finishing in a place is really quite good...one of both of them finishing in place 80% plus .. I spoke with Ryan earlier but as I develop and test this want to consider the best way to trade it.. back to lay, or for example Ryan suggested dutching.. I've put a fair bit of work into the model but the clever bit will be how to trade the selections.. and help welcome

Martin

@alexander-hughes good to see people having a good month!

alexander hughes

@Martin LBF star performer +36 up to last night.

Martin

@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Martin Lay the 3rd fav still rocking it. A loss on the final selection yesterday ended a 20+ win(lose!) streak

brilliant stuff!

Tony Hastie

@Martin Lay the 3rd fav still rocking it. A loss on the final selection yesterday ended a 20+ win(lose!) streak

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Coming towards the end of the month, will do some analysis on my strategies in a few days but how has everyone's month gone?

Sort of ok. One strategy a bit meh but the proper trading(dob and trob) have been good.

Martin

Coming towards the end of the month, will do some analysis on my strategies in a few days but how has everyone's month gone?

Martin

@John-Folan had one this week where I backed the draw in Wigan game prematch set and forget, saw the score 0-0 at 90+5 and thought nice a winner. Goal in 90+20

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Dan-MacKinnon that's why a break even day is such an anti-climax!

I don’t mind them. Especially when I’ve looked earlier and I was down. Not so keen the other way round lol

Martin

@Dan-MacKinnon that's why a break even day is such an anti-climax!

Dan MacKinnon

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan haha I love that! May start using that phrase in some content, you are so right!

I've got to the point where I actually enjoy the surprise of logging in and finding out what happened

You make it sound like a gameshow. "Will it be higher or lower? Drum roll please...."

Martin

@John-Folan haha I love that! May start using that phrase in some content, you are so right!

I've got to the point where I actually enjoy the surprise of logging in and finding out what happened

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan especially in horses set and forget

Yes and you really need to pay attention to the forget part!!

Martin

@John-Folan especially in horses set and forget

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan that's where a protfolio of strategies helps isn't it, plus very strict bankroll management

Absolutely. Bankroll management is so important. Not over staking etc

Martin

@John-Folan that's where a protfolio of strategies helps isn't it, plus very strict bankroll management

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan that's the thing with set and forget the variance can be wild but the good strategies will recover over time, problem is how many people are going to stick out 3 losing months in a row?

Me

Martin

@John-Folan that's the thing with set and forget the variance can be wild but the good strategies will recover over time, problem is how many people are going to stick out 3 losing months in a row?

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan interesting so short odd lays going well, I know the one I had tanked a bit last year.

June was a weird month last year. Have a look at Beaten Faves as well. Recovery has been good

Martin

@John-Folan interesting so short odd lays going well, I know the one I had tanked a bit last year.