The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Only a bit of Flat Place action today. Got the short odds lays bot turned on as well. Out most of the day as going to see The Book of Mormon for the second time. Taking Joshua(17) and my daughters boyfriend (22). Both who love South Park. Can't wait to see their faces at some of the humour
Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan how did you get on?
Two points trobbing and 4 points pace profit. So annoyed about the one I missed at 12βs the other day but Iβve sorted that now. Had another 3.5 points on the short odds lays as well. So cracking day all round
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@john-folan how did you get on?
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@john-folan well done mate
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Bit crap on the Pace front yesterday and no match on the trob. Here are todays
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
Decent day today
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Bit crap on the Pace front yesterday and no match on the trob. Here are todays
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
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Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going
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@john-folan cheers
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@keith I make you right. Going to be a lot of tweaking going forward to get results matching. Good learning curve though. So Pace showed a loss yesterday even though it should have been a 5 point profit
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@john-folan makes sense to me mate. Yes better to let BFBM do it at the off time
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I have an interesting conundrum. On the Flat Pace Backs, it is more profitable to restrict runner numbers between 4-14 per race. It's obvious as you can see below. Now I ran the races off yesterday and it missed a horse called Invincibly in the 14:55 at Carlisle as it had 17 runners in that race so didn't show in the software. Obviously it then won at a price of 11.5(ffs). It also shows in the software today as there were three non runners so it hit 14 the maximum.
So I am thinking I do the upcoming Qualifiers without the odds restrictions. Load them into bfbotmanager which will then restrict them based on runner numbers 11 minutes before the off when bets are placed. All I will need to do is keep two versions of the strategy. One with runners restricted that I will use to compare results and one to get the selections without the restrictions so that this doesn't happen that often apart from very late non runners. Make sense?
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Flat Pace Backs. Back any between 2.0-25.0
Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20
Poor day today on these. Iβm ready for the LLR or 15 though so all good.
Short odds lay bits done ok tho
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@keith-driscoll said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?
It's worth the effort for a number of tracks, as I showed in the past with Chester. For instance, find the AW track with the shortest run in, and the same system works over certain distances.
You can also group similar tracks, Chepstow, York, Newbury, Haydock, Doncaster, etc, all have very long run-ins.
On a totally different variable, horses that travel a long way north, tend to be better class, than those travelling the same distance south when it comes to turf races.
Thank you to you and @Dan-MacKinnon . Won't give up yet and your tips are providing some progress. Was probably a bit fed up yesterday lol
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Flat Pace Backs. Back any between 2.0-25.0
Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20
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@john-folan when I tried using that same book I found I had to split them into long and short courses. I'm sure it can be done but using the information in his book there doesn't seem to be a one size fits all approach that I could find
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?
It's worth the effort for a number of tracks, as I showed in the past with Chester. For instance, find the AW track with the shortest run in, and the same system works over certain distances.
You can also group similar tracks, Chepstow, York, Newbury, Haydock, Doncaster, etc, all have very long run-ins.
On a totally different variable, horses that travel a long way north, tend to be better class, than those travelling the same distance south when it comes to turf races.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Quiet today, but I should get some hits on the Short Odd Lay and Back Favourite Bots.
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Back the Win for any between 3.5-9(I've decided to keep that odds range. If it ain't broke etc).
Nothing matched. One short odds lay that decided to win itβs race. Bloody liberty
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Struggling a bit with this lay the favourite thing. I did revert back to the Roger Kemp book and looking at distances and runner numbers over 80% on the relevant courses it does seem to be profitable. But. You would need to set it up for every course as the distances that are profitable tend to vary as do the runner numbers. I then ask the question. Can I be arsed?
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Quiet today, but I should get some hits on the Short Odd Lay and Back Favourite Bots.
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Back the Win for any between 3.5-9(I've decided to keep that odds range. If it ain't broke etc).
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Pace Backs: Back any between 2.0-25.0
Slow Horses. Dob any over 6
Zero Paced Dobs
Dob any over 20
Profit on the Flat Pace and Slow Horses. 1 point loss on the ZPDβs in the money overall.