The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[A Former User]

@keith
Thats exactly what i thought it would do. I have been automating something similar (Not the same filter but exactly the same trade mechanism) and am seeing the total reverse.

The backtest on this one is completely unreliable. 3 days of examples. Backtest shows profits, real time trading shows loss. A massive differnce too, not just a bit. 3 days profit (up to 10 points one day) on backtest but 3 days loss (1 point, 8 points, 6 points) in live testing.

Its not the filter thats the problem, its the implementation. As far as i know Martin never actually traded it, just looked at the backtest with the basic filter and thats not valid as its the backtest thats not reliable.

The software seems fine with simple backs/lays but anything inplay and its near useless, you cant trust that what the backtest shows actually happend. Which isnt as much of a critisism as it sounds and shouldnt be a surprise really. You can never predict how a green/red up will go, particularly with stupid priced horses that have little liquidity.

Forward testing live is still king i think. Even if its just a couple of weeks to confirm the backtest and real life performance match.

[A Former User]

Thanks for the tag @John-Folan
@Jonathan-Jones the details are in the horse strategy megathread but this is the gist of it:

It's a backing system based on horses priced over 50.0 10 seconds before the off. After 5 seconds in play, it will look to hedge the bets with a target of 10 points and if it goes against there's a SL of 0.6 points.

So basically it will green up if it can and has a stop loss if it can't.
To be honest I'm not tracking this one live but @Martin did test it against the basic filter and it did well.

[John Folan]

@nick-terracciano No worries mate. It helps me keep things simple as well

[Nick Terracciano]

@john-folan Cheers for making my life easier its appreciated

[John Folan]

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Can someone explain the mechanism behind the Keith | Trade | Big Backs strategy? Not interested in the filter, just he actual trading logic because i am not sure i understand it correctly.

My understanding is:
Enter a Back bet 10 seconds before actual time if odds are between 50 and 1000 (Not actually possible anyway since 'Actual' isnt known till after its happend, though substituting with official here doesnt really make any difference). The back bet has a 10 point lay offset set to hedge the profit over all outcomes.

But, It appears that it also exits after 5 seconds inplay with a green/red up function if the profit has not been met.

Is my understanding of the exit correct?

@Keith ? Not looked at this one yet.

[A Former User]

Can someone explain the mechanism behind the Keith | Trade | Big Backs strategy? Not interested in the filter, just he actual trading logic because i am not sure i understand it correctly.

My understanding is:
Enter a Back bet 10 seconds before actual time if odds are between 50 and 1000 (Not actually possible anyway since 'Actual' isnt known till after its happend, though substituting with official here doesnt really make any difference). The back bet has a 10 point lay offset set to hedge the profit over all outcomes.

But, It appears that it also exits after 5 seconds inplay with a green/red up function if the profit has not been met.

Is my understanding of the exit correct?

[John Folan]

@ryan @Martin Sharing is Caring

[Ryan]

@john-folan Same loving these.

[John Folan]

About two points lost overall yesterday. Which always seems to happen when you say how pleased you are with something!

Todays Selections
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0 as close to the off as possible

[Martin]

@john-folan you are smashing it mate, thanks for sharing these!

[John Folan]

@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Bloody Algheed NR and Marrie odds were huge!!

I am a patient man lol

[Ryan]

@john-folan Bloody Algheed NR and Marrie odds were huge!!

[John Folan]

Today's Selections.
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0 as close to the off as possible

[John Folan]

June Summary.

Classic Trobs. Pretty flat really. Copy of June's results included with today's selection in the next post but were Dobs -4. Trobs -1 and Win +1.

Short Odds Lays. 13 points profit. Nice :). Despite a couple of losing streaks, these are ticking along.

Flat Pace. 30 points profit. Can have quite long losing runs but recovers quickly

Slow Horses. 1 point profit. Mirrors last June. Nothing out of the ordinary for these so happily continuing.

Zero Paced Dobs. 1 point profit. I am binning these. They are fine at low stakes(up to £10). But there is no real upscaling as you struggle to get larger amounts matched especially inrunning. A nice experiment though and helped me find that out to bare in mind for future strategies.

The most encouraging thing is my bots are getting virtually identical results to the software. Very very happy.

[John Folan]

Today's. I'll do an end of month update tomorrow on my strategies.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0 as close to the off as possible

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20.0 as close to the off as possible. Go careful here as I'm not sure about getting matched at larger stakes. I'm on a compound increase and will stop increasing once they get to a level where it is a problem.

[A Former User]

@martin Ok thanks, ill maybe run them both for a while and see if there are differences, and if so try to work out why

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's selections. Trialling a few new strategies as well(monitoring going forwards). All a little different, which is good.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0 as close to the off as possible
NONE TODAY

Zero Paced Dobs. Dob any over 20.0 as close to the off as possible. Go careful here as I'm not sure about getting matched at larger stakes. I'm on a compound increase and will stop increasing once they get to a level where it is a problem.

Only the flat pace let it down today. One point loss there. Still 40 points up this month. Everything else traded or won.

[Martin]

@lee-woodman if it is a strategy that chooses a horse based on a criteria that can't change (for example lay last time winner) then it does it a day in advance so you could run it anytime the day before

[A Former User]

@martin I’ve got a few back strategies and a lay one, nothing too dissimilar to what’s on the presets

I just know you can’t really run the football selections the night before if using odds and wondered how reliable the horse selections would be the night before

[Martin]

@lee-woodman which strategy is this for?