The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[A Former User]

@jonathan-jones I'm getting the same thing

[A Former User]

Website Down?

Getting this:

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/oauth2/authorize?response_type=code&client_id=horse_racing_local&scope=basic&state=rbW2!4a&redirect_uri=https://horse-racing-api.betfairtradingcommunity.com/oauth/v1/authorize

[John Folan]

Today's.

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.
NONE TODAY

[Ryan]

@john-folan yea!! They are near enough break even for the month now which works for me!

[John Folan]

Better on Pace

[John Folan]

Right let us see if today is better

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.

[John Folan]

Crap today. Not even a place. On to tomorrow

[John Folan]

@michael not a silly question. Yes it’s fine. Little trick is to check the actual going of the first race once the result is in to see if it changes. Timeform results are good for that.

[Michael]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Very Quiet today

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.
NONE TODAY

Hopefully not a silly question but is 'good to firm' going acceptable for the Flat Place qualifiers, John?!

[John Folan]

@ian-parry also apologies. I probably didn’t explain myself very well. Touch of man flu. All over the show

[John Folan]

Very Quiet today

Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9
NONE TODAY

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.
NONE TODAY

[John Folan]

@ian-parry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

So you never reduce your stakes? Even when you have a bad run? Doesn't that mean you're eventually going to blow your bank? If you are using stakes which are 2% of your bank and you never reduce it. All it takes is a run of 50 losses - quite possible on a back strategy.

Yep. Like I said depends on the strategy. Pace is on 1%. Slow Horses, Classic Trobs and short odds lays are 2%. It's all about the drawdown % as it increases

[Ryan]

@john-folan yea that is true, anything that you add to them from this point is a bonus - BUT you don't have to.

[Ian Parry]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

So you never reduce your stakes? Even when you have a bad run? Doesn't that mean you're eventually going to blow your bank? If you are using stakes which are 2% of your bank and you never reduce it. All it takes is a run of 50 losses - quite possible on a back strategy.

[John Folan]

@ian-parry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan Thanks mate. Good to know. I have a price range of 2 to 25. Will leave it running for a month or two but might consider shortening it if results don't pick up. Also if you don't mind me asking, how long do you generally test a strategy before you consider upping the stakes? Assuming it is performing well of course.

Ah I have a foolproof method. So I start everything with a £100 or £200 bank. Then either 1 or 2% compounding depending on the max drawdown. If it gains traction it will soon grow. If it doesn't then not much lost. :). You are also not going to be prone to losing runs after upping stakes which has been a major bugbear of mine in the past. Also it really pees me off when something eats into my scalping profits and this negates that. So the short odds lays for example were started on £200 with 2% compounding and are already up to £6.60 stakes. There’s no rush with any of this as no one else but BTC members will have access to these strategies. Especially the pace ones which are Adam’s own design(and a thing of true beauty). Realistically if it grows as it should do those stakes will be £100 by this time next year and that will be 20k a year from just turning a bot on.

Oh and I ratchet stake as well so I do not reduce if I have a loss.

[Ian Parry]

@john-folan Thanks mate. Good to know. I have a price range of 2 to 25. Will leave it running for a month or two but might consider shortening it if results don't pick up. Also if you don't mind me asking, how long do you generally test a strategy before you consider upping the stakes? Assuming it is performing well of course.

[John Folan]

@ian-parry yep I’m about 30 points up since I started it. Did have a bad losing streak but nowhere near what you have had. Had two good wins the last few days as well.

And I missed a 12.5 winner because non runners made one a qualifier. I’ve sorted that now by including all runner numbers in the selections I post but filtering down to between 4-14 on the bot. I’m currently running 4 points down for July.

[Ian Parry]

@John-Folan Have you been running your Pace back strategy lately? I started testing a variation of it and it's started very badly. Just one win out of 42 backs. I didn't fiddle with it much so I assumed most of the selections would be similar to yours. Is your pace back strategy going through a particularly bad run at the moment?

[John Folan]

@ryan And the sheer joy when we realised how profitable they were just backing the win. I like these ones because they are profitable without filtering so you can't go wrong really.

[Ryan]

@john-folan this was we will never lose either, cor I miss those sheets being emailed lol