The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Dan MacKinnon

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

From my experience of pre-race scalping (and I'm happy to be corrected) you can use Ryan's 1 tick recycle on the horses.

Same method as the football. Look for a horse that has had steady odds for a while and similar money either side. Back and lay either side, wait for them both to get matched and take the 1 tick. As with any scalping on any sport I would recommend software to get a better picture of what's going on. I would also suggest looking around 20-25 minutes from the race starting and getting out around 15 minutes before. After that you start getting more traders and the prices can move more than you want.

Final pointers

Don't be greedy / Don't overtrade (my downfall)

If it moves against you get out for a scratch or 1 tick loss. There will be plenty of opportunities. Don't sit there waiting for it to recover (another of my failings!)

@John-Folan has given me lots of valuable advice, one of which is "start with minimum stakes because you'll only risking a few pennies"

Thought I'd share this for anyone that had considered scalping horse racing but not sure where to start.

great idea this! keep us updated with how it goes

Inspired by Keith's 3% and impatient for my filter data to collect, I'm going to try my own scalping challenge. I know if I follow the rules I can make it work. It's also a mental challenge for me as scalping was what caused me to do the rage trade and end up with a broken hand!

My aim is to only use £2 stake on a back first basis (so the most I will risk is £2) and collect 33p each day. After 30 days I should have a whopping £10. It's going to be a challenge to not overtrade, keep focus and not get too emotional, but if I can overcome those I'll feel more confident as a trader.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

One potential today. 3.5-9 as per usual.

Pulled up. Annoying

John Folan

@Martin Here you go mate.

so 70% trob rate.
minimum 5 runs
the pace value actually works better if you use it for this race alone and ignore the last three runs part.(So pace score for this particular race.
Works on all surfaces and disciplines. Just need Adam to update the software so I can test it properly. Dobs, Trobs and Wins are ALL profitable though.

John Folan

@martin 70% Trob rate. Let me screenshot you the stuff I fed into the strategy builder

Martin

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Pace testing today:

6th January

Spartan Fighter Newcastle AW 7f 2.35PM
Healing Power Chelmsford City AW 1m 4:00 PM
Kraka Chelmsford City AW 7f 6:00 PM

All three finished last

@John-Folan potential trend I'm noticing is that course and distance wins matter

Also look at Dob/Trob rate. . Combined with pace it looks mental.

what percentages are you looking at on those only just seen them on the cards

John Folan

One potential today. 3.5-9 as per usual.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan it's a real man who can cry. I'd be the same haha!

John Folan

@richard-latimer Thanks mate. I still can’t quite believe it. I was blubbing like a baby when he told me

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@nick-terracciano happily no cancer. Thanks for the kind thoughts. I honestly thought he was done as the vet was convinced that’s what it was. They still have no idea what caused it and I’m not poking the bear anymore until I have to. He’s back to himself which I really wasn’t expecting. Happy New Year mate.

Always late with the updates but well chuffed for you and the dog John!

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Pace testing today:

6th January

Spartan Fighter Newcastle AW 7f 2.35PM
Healing Power Chelmsford City AW 1m 4:00 PM
Kraka Chelmsford City AW 7f 6:00 PM

All three finished last

@John-Folan potential trend I'm noticing is that course and distance wins matter

Also look at Dob/Trob rate. . Combined with pace it looks mental.

Martin

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Pace testing today:

6th January

Spartan Fighter Newcastle AW 7f 2.35PM
Healing Power Chelmsford City AW 1m 4:00 PM
Kraka Chelmsford City AW 7f 6:00 PM

All three finished last

@John-Folan potential trend I'm noticing is that course and distance wins matter

Martin

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

From my experience of pre-race scalping (and I'm happy to be corrected) you can use Ryan's 1 tick recycle on the horses.

Same method as the football. Look for a horse that has had steady odds for a while and similar money either side. Back and lay either side, wait for them both to get matched and take the 1 tick. As with any scalping on any sport I would recommend software to get a better picture of what's going on. I would also suggest looking around 20-25 minutes from the race starting and getting out around 15 minutes before. After that you start getting more traders and the prices can move more than you want.

Final pointers

Don't be greedy / Don't overtrade (my downfall)

If it moves against you get out for a scratch or 1 tick loss. There will be plenty of opportunities. Don't sit there waiting for it to recover (another of my failings!)

@John-Folan has given me lots of valuable advice, one of which is "start with minimum stakes because you'll only risking a few pennies"

Thought I'd share this for anyone that had considered scalping horse racing but not sure where to start.

great idea this! keep us updated with how it goes

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon Belter of a strategy this. Nice write up .

Dan MacKinnon

From my experience of pre-race scalping (and I'm happy to be corrected) you can use Ryan's 1 tick recycle on the horses.

Same method as the football. Look for a horse that has had steady odds for a while and similar money either side. Back and lay either side, wait for them both to get matched and take the 1 tick. As with any scalping on any sport I would recommend software to get a better picture of what's going on. I would also suggest looking around 20-25 minutes from the race starting and getting out around 15 minutes before. After that you start getting more traders and the prices can move more than you want.

Final pointers

Don't be greedy / Don't overtrade (my downfall)
If it moves against you get out for a scratch or 1 tick loss. There will be plenty of opportunities. Don't sit there waiting for it to recover (another of my failings!)
@John-Folan has given me lots of valuable advice, one of which is "start with minimum stakes because you'll only risking a few pennies"

Thought I'd share this for anyone that had considered scalping horse racing but not sure where to start.

John Folan

The going has knackered my selections today.

Martin

Pace testing today:

6th January

Spartan Fighter Newcastle AW 7f 2.35PM
Healing Power Chelmsford City AW 1m 4:00 PM
Kraka Chelmsford City AW 7f 6:00 PM

Martin

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Back on the pace selections, just testing:

5th January

Airshow Kempton AW 6f 3.55PM

Don't love these two below but monitoring the more marginal ones too.

Maahi Ve Wolves AW 7f 12.50PM
Eloy D'amerval Dundalk AW 1m 3.45PM

Airshow dobbed, trobbed and won and the other two I wasn't sure on were crap but that's actually good as I can a potential difference in strength of selections

John Folan

Nothing from me on the Dob/Trob/Win front. What I am finding is most of the strategies for these seem better on the flat.

Must be something I’m missing to increase selections on the jumps. A job for the new software I think.

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan let me know what you find!

I’ll stick it up after Adam he done the next update. Be good for people to see what it’s capable of.

Martin

@john-folan let me know what you find!