The BTC Horse Racing Thread

andrew page

@andrew-page said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Brendan Powell has gone 23 rides without winner at Wincanton
15.30 Moonlight Artist
16. 40 West Orchard
not even looking at form

laying these 2 today

incoming exocet missiles

You know its your day when you miss a runner with jockey on and it wins

andrew page

Brendan Powell has gone 23 rides without winner at Wincanton
15.30 Moonlight Artist
16. 40 West Orchard
not even looking at form

laying these 2 today

incoming exocet missiles

John Folan

@Kevin-Pepper said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Hi John
Thanks for this strategy, it's a nice consistent one. I like to look at how lay strategies perform to a fixed liability and get a total return of c.69 pts laying at BSP. Assuming my numbers are right, what's also interesting is the return when laying to Place BSP (1pt liability) is +77 points. So that's a combined +146 pts over 3 years and it's been pretty consistent throughout. Definitely one to add to the portfolio....

Linked to this, I'm considering switching from Fairbot to BFBM, primarily because I want to automate various strategies. I've had a look through the forum to understand what level of automation is possible between BTC horse software and BFBM but I'm not clear whether they can be set up and left to run from day to day. Is that possible with BTC daily selections pulled through be BFBM or do you need to import selections each day? Any help will be much appreciated
Cheers

Yep it’s easy to set up and then you just let it get on with it.

I like this one as there are very few filters so next to no chance of a back fit.

Kevin Pepper

@Martin Perfect, cheers Martin

Tony Hastie

@John-Folan I removed some courses and set the odds to between 4 and 7.99 and funnily enough it came up with the exact 3 selections Id shortlisted for my B2L strategy! (which I manually select with data from another service. Not been able to replicate with the software) Still, B2Ls dont have to win do they. Except the first did

Martin

@Kevin-Pepper yes it's possible as it's exactly what I do!

Kevin Pepper

@John-Folan Hi John
Thanks for this strategy, it's a nice consistent one. I like to look at how lay strategies perform to a fixed liability and get a total return of c.69 pts laying at BSP. Assuming my numbers are right, what's also interesting is the return when laying to Place BSP (1pt liability) is +77 points. So that's a combined +146 pts over 3 years and it's been pretty consistent throughout. Definitely one to add to the portfolio....

Linked to this, I'm considering switching from Fairbot to BFBM, primarily because I want to automate various strategies. I've had a look through the forum to understand what level of automation is possible between BTC horse software and BFBM but I'm not clear whether they can be set up and left to run from day to day. Is that possible with BTC daily selections pulled through be BFBM or do you need to import selections each day? Any help will be much appreciated
Cheers

Martin

@John-Folan sounds like my kind of strategy! Thanks for sharing

John Folan

Haven't come up with a BSP strategy but this looks tidy. Averages 80 points a year laying the 10/12 pace rated horses between 3.0-7.9. This is the sort of range you lot lay correct scores in so it's not much of a stretch. 17% drawdown on a 100 point bank and a longest losing run of 4. Won't make you a millionaire but will tick along.

Pace 1012 Lays.json

Tony Hastie

@John-Folan Adams favorite number?

John Folan

@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan market less aware of them so better odds?

Could well be. If you look at the breakdown on anything backing pace(aw and turf). 8’s seem to be head and shoulders above anything else

Martin

@John-Folan market less aware of them so better odds?

John Folan

Really looking hard for a BSP strategy we can all do. Making inroads with horses on the flat with a pace rating of “8”. Wonder why they seem to be best?

andrew page

Day off work so got some screen time

Back to lay selections im going to be doing although Newcastle is not one of my favourite tracks

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan good work. Are you using the pre-set filter, or an adapted version?

I've adapted it because I like to fiddle but the pre-set one I originally created is good to go anyway

Sean

@Adam Thank you for that, that was easier than I thought to work it out.
That would be great if it could be added to the software. In BFBM to place it you just select what percentage you want the current stake reduced by. I can't get the entry Lay bet to be exactly what the Exit bet as a DOB would be using a bot, I would have to do it manually to achieve that, so would be handy if it matched that. I hope that makes sense.
Screenshot 2024-02-09 080533.png

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan good work. Are you using the preset filter, or an adapted version?

John Folan

I wish everyday was like today on the short odds lays. 5/6 for me

Adam

@Sean There's currently no way to do that in the software. I'll look into adding it.

In the meantime, you might be able to figure it out with a bit of fiddling if you set it up as below. You've probably already got the first 4 steps covered in your existing DOB strategy:

Set the entry side to "Back"
Use an entry price range of 1.01-1000 and set the entry time to whatever you want
Set the exit target to "Profit" and set the value to 1 (like a DOB)
Set the exit time to race end
Include the P/L, exit price and horse position in your individual trades columns (under "Customise Results")
Download the individual trades to a spreadsheet

At this point, you should have all the bets in a sheet, but the profit will be wrong because it's behaving like a back to lay, so...

Amend the P/L column in your spreadsheet so it behaves like straight lays instead. Off the top of my head:

You'll need to completely remove any trades that don't have an exit price (these are the ones that never hit 50% of the entry price)
The P/L for all trades where the horse won will obviously be a loss of (odds - 1) * stake
You can subtract the back stake from the profit on any trades where the exit price was hit but the horse didn't win, to get the true profit for a straight lay

As I say, a bit fiddly but it should give you the info you need.

Greg Mitchell

Thought I'd have a look at the 5f Backs as don't currently run any Horse Back strategies.

rules_export.json

Came up with this, going into testing as from today.