The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Interested in people's thoughts on 'official start time' and 'actual start time' do you think that the odds change much in this period?
Yep. Deffo. Just watch a few races with the Betfair odds up. Scalpers paradise
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Interested in people's thoughts on 'official start time' and 'actual start time' do you think that the odds change much in this period?
Depends on the reason for the delay I think. If it's just stall handlers faffing around not managing to get the horses loaded up even though they've done it 24984398* times, or it's one of the courses where they have to do a 354* mile hike just to get to the start, like Cheltenham or Newmarket, not much changes and the same few horses will carry on mirroring each other, etc.
If a particular horse really starts playing up, it can change things.
There can definitely be a lot of money traded during that time between the official and actual start. I did some analysis on this once from our database, wish I could find the post now!
*Some figures may have been exaggerated for effect
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Racing is so boring at the moment with all these cancelled meetings and horses being withdrawn. Still I’d rather that than an injured animal.
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@John-Folan Second/third this idea!
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@Martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@John-Folan running archie score from date of forward testing would be a good idea too wouldn't it!
Oh yes. Absolutely.
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@John-Folan running archie score from date of forward testing would be a good idea too wouldn't it!
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@John-Folan fantastic feature thanks @Adam
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@Ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@John-Folan Lovely! I was thinking about not automating it, mainly as a way of showing a video on this strategy and how it could be found in the horses to be honest.
A lot of people did well over many years with this strategy.
You would do well to do that. The racecards in the software are under utilised and there is a wealth of info in there.
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@John-Folan Lovely! I was thinking about not automating it, mainly as a way of showing a video on this strategy and how it could be found in the horses to be honest.
A lot of people did well over many years with this strategy.
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@Ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Asking in here @Everyone before I have a go at building this but has anybody built or tested Dreamakers L2B strategy in the software?
I know it relies on the top 3 rated on Proform but I am sure @Adam @John-Folan will have a work around.
It was crazy good back in the day.
I don’t think it can be automated but I’ve done well off it swapping top 3 rated for pace rating 6 or below. Easy money if you have the patience and trade out without blinking if it goes the wrong way
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Asking in here @Everyone before I have a go at building this but has anybody built or tested Dreamakers L2B strategy in the software?
I know it relies on the top 3 rated on Proform but I am sure @Adam @John-Folan will have a work around.
It was crazy good back in the day.
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@Myles-O-Bery I don't know much about t&p values, I need to read more into high level statisical analysis (wish I studied it at Uni instead of Sociology and Counselling!).
I think you are right but the only caveat is that sometimes getting 500+ results in one course could take a long time depending on the strategy. That said as @Adam is adding in a few more years soon that won't really be an issue moving forward.
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Yeah it's a bit tricky. Do you have much experience with significance testing (t & p values)?
Based on my calculations, some courses with low trades (100 - 200) are showing high confidence levels (90%+) based on their results while some courses with 1000+ trades show confidence levels of 80%.
Naturally, the more trades we have the more accurate the results are so I'm disregarding significance tests with less than 500-odd trades as I feel that, with anything below this, a couple of big wins/losses could skew the results.
What are your thoughts?
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@John-Folan yeah you are onto something there, also we are moving further and further away from it which is the good news!
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@Myles-O-Bery it's so difficult to say really, I mean you want a clear trend so results per course I'm guessing if after 100+ you are seeing a massive reason not to use it then that could be one to avoid. I don't tend to remove anything unless it is a really clear negative trend though.
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How many trades do you guys like to see before removing a particular course from a strategy? 100? 1000?
Would appreciate any recommended reads about statistics that relate to optimisation!