The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@pete-smith Not a great start but I should have not rushed into the trade . I looked at the odds and saw the favourite was 4.0 and 5 under 10.0 , 1mile maiden but failed to notice only 9 runners thought not 10. Lesson learnt don't rush if you miss a trade it Is money saved not lost !
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@james-everard you too!
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@pete-smith I am attempting a split stake , at 2.04 and 1.6 good luck mate
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@james-everard I'm on it mate odds of 2.04 for this one, try to get a few matches
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@pete-smith I am getting on the 19.15pm (now) at tampla bay meets the criteria for lay the field
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@martin-futter I traded the Randwick 03:10 where one matched and Mophetville 03:35 where three got matched, so a loss and a win. What I did find is that the liquidity really picks up a couple of minutes before the off the second race going from 2k to around 125k in about 3 minutes...crazy stuff!
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@martin-futter Ive LTF @ 1.81 all of them except 9.40 am Toowoomba, and all of them were winners with 2 horse hitting the target odds.
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@james-woodroffe did you do the click in play thing? on the circle that needs a dot in it?
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This post is deleted!
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-woodroffe were they unmatched or just didn't place inrunning?
Didn’t place in running it seems. Almost like they lapsed?
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Lay the Field update:
I'm not convinced we are going in the right direction with this (very happy to be proved wrong though!)
The few picks I have made with the criteria haven't been positive and led to an overall loss. Also, taking Australia as an example, if I look at the historical data for 2020 then I have zero events where 3+ runners had £100 traded on them below 2.0So, I'm testing in a different direction.
Using Ryan's "What has to happen?" question then the key thing is that multiple horses have to get below an odds threshold... the number of runners, BSP fav, etc don't matter if one horse disappears up the track. I think there needs to be some in-play consideration to the decision to trade.What I am going to try is looking for races where the IP odds of the 3rd fav get below, say, 3.0 (best value TBD)...then we know we have several horses in the mix and we can lay the field.
To begin with I'm running this with micro stakes on any race (no restriction on BSP, runners, length, etc) to see if any patterns emerge.EDIT: The wrinkle to this is that they don't all have to be under, say 3.0, at the same time for the trade to win....but that needs more thought
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I prefer to watch the match go live for now as I'm learning a lot about the odds etc.
It seems if there are 2 horses in the 3's & 1 or 2 more below 6.5 is more likely to succeed but need more data as back up
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@james-woodroffe were they unmatched or just didn't place inrunning?
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So I “thought” I’d set up BetTrader to automatically kick in the races that I had selected from yesterday and woke up to discover that I’d obviously done something wrong and none of them were activated. Like you
@Alan-Steward i have overslept big time. Something I was thinking tho was I wonder even though the courses I mentioned yesterday were where the liquidity by rights should have been, if the fact that they were between 2:30 and 5:00 am would have made a difference? Maybe the liquidity is at some of the lesser courses after a particular time of morning cause it’s more trade friendly hours?? -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
just got up anyone been trading Aus with any success?
Massive oversleep for me too late for anything lol
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Lay the Field Shortlist - These races could fit the parameters make sure they do before trading!
(Lay the field inrunning at odds of 1.81 or 2.04. 1250m-1650m distance, fav must be 4.0+, 4+ horses at 10.0 odds or below and 9+ runners. At least 50k matched before off)
8.14am Ascot - Aus
8.25am Caulfield - Aus
8.32am Alice Springs - Aus
8.40am Morphettville - Aus
9.40am Toowoomba - Aus
10.15am Toowoomba - Aus
5.15pm Tampa - USA
7.15pm Tampa - USA
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@james-woodroffe Massive effort mate... Awesome!
Thanks
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@james-woodroffe Nice one mate really useful information. Really helps us Brits
