The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan hi John. If the favourite for Chelmsford 8.00 isn't showing in the software selection but the race is, should I give it a miss. Thanks
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I've had a bit of a mess around with C&D winners. I know a few people were asking for something that you can use without bots and I think this might be as close to a set and forget as you can get with horse racing. The biggest downside is that it is still reliant on odds and they will move closer to the off.
My strategy is to back the horse which has won C&D as long as it's between 2.0 to 7.0 ideally 10 minutes before the race start.
I've done the usual and filtered class, race type and courses. I've also filtered so it's in the top 3 but that's not essential. Based on £100 bank with £1 bets these are my results
The strategy is here: 0_1669723580193_rules_export C&D winners.json
I'm going to trade this alongside the software and will post the daily selections here. In all honesty, this is a new strategy and there are some long losing streaks, however, it should be a good indication of what the software can do, how to trade horses without bots, and be a good example for people to ask questions. I'll be as transparent as possible.
If you do want to follow along, just remember the software is there to BACKTEST strategies, it's not a tipping service. To set possible expectations, if we had used £1 stakes since the start of September it would return £17. September would have lost £2, October won £19 and November break even. There was also a losing run of 15 trades.
Now that's all out the way let's go going!... oh wait. There's no selections today
I've created a Fairbot bot for these.
0_1669914566128_C&D Winners.fs -
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.
whats the drawdown like now john?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?
Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates
thanks dan
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan download to Excel then filter or remove what you don’t want. Not sure about the software however
thanks chris
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Hi Martin,
I have made a Martin's Back the Favourite 3.0. Can you have a look and tell me what you think?
0_1669902508828_rules_export(2).jsonMany thanks
Philip Brogan
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Conducting an experiment into backfitting. I've redone the flat pace. I'm still backing the version on the megathread as that has done me alright so far. But I am going to monitor this version for the next three months and see what it throws up. I've gone to town on it filter wise. Lets see what happens.
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I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
30/11/2022 14:30 Dundalk Chica Power
30/11/2022 15:00 Dundalk Maestro Stick
30/11/2022 16:00 Dundalk No Speed Limit -1
30/11/2022 16:15 Kempton Spring Glow -1
30/11/2022 17:15 Kempton Free Step -1
30/11/2022 17:30 Dundalk Turf RangeOnly 3 qualified and they all lost. Our first losing month! The software shows another trade that also lost but it must have qualified later on.
Running total: -3
Software: -4Nothing today
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Another 0.4 losing day. Nice to finish the month on a winner tho. Live trading has me 10 points up pretty much exactly on these for the month.
Beaten favourites about the same and flat pace. Well that was just the gravy
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?
Create a filter "Specific Date" and then you have to click the start and end dates
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@nick-allan download to Excel then filter or remove what you don’t want. Not sure about the software however
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For all those who are software gurus can I ask a question? Is there anyway that you could look at results for the last four months as opposed to the last 18 months in the software? The only reason I asked this is the I wanna take a look at say specific courses and see if there are courses on a strategy that don't work well but I don't want results for the last 18 months because I think they could be somewhat skewed I'm looking for results within the last four months. Is there a way you can do this?
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I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:
Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
I just do them on whatever strategy they are on. It’s either that or don’t touch them at all. Easiest way to deal with them. This keeps it simple.
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@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.
In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.
But would you also discount it from Martins Pace Lays, because the odds are within the criteria for that?
If it was me, I would still go with Martin's Pace Lays because it qualifies and the other strategy doesn't conflict with it. If we get to 14.20 and Chica Power now qualifies for C&D I'll discount them both because something has obviously happened. The way I see it is that it doesn't qualify for my C&D winners, therefore, I'm not looking at it to win and that shouldn't come into my consideration.
That is just my thought process but you'll know yourself better. Also, the C&D is more of an experiment so I would always go with whatever strategy you feel most confident in.
It'll be typical now if Chica Power doesn't qualify for C&D but wins anyway!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.
In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.
But would you also discount it from Martins Pace Lays, because the odds are within the criteria for that?
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@greg-mitchell good point. I download all my selections for the day and then sort them by time and then by course so I can see what horses qualify. If there is a conflict I would want to see if both qualify, if they do then I would probably avoid both trades. I doubt it'll happen very often so probably safe to avoid them both.
In this case, I've had a quick look and Chica Power is currently around 9.8 to back. I doubt it'll come in enough to qualify for the C&D trade so probably safe to discount it.
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@dan-mackinnon Interesting, just raised a thought in my head, but wondering how many of you using multiple strategies use conflicting ones to remove selections, so for example, your first selection on the C & D strategy (Chica Power), is also picked out by Martins Pace Lays.
I have several horse racing strategies, I am not trading them all, but use them to validate the strategies that I am trading, so in the above example I would just ignore this horse and not back it or lay it.
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@dan-mackinnon I’m loving the change you’ve made matey, too work.
4 star strategy too!
