The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan flip me mate I might have to put some time aside this week to go through those posts fully! Good work!

Enjoy. I have wittered on a bit. Just to show how my strange mind works. Last two posts are probably the best

Martin

@john-folan flip me mate I might have to put some time aside this week to go through those posts fully! Good work!

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

This might be a daft question, but what is "Max. Drawdown"?

For example, the Back The Favourite below has a drawdown of 22%. Am I right in thinking that's how much of your bank you could potentially lose?

Exactly that.

Dan MacKinnon

This might be a daft question, but what is "Max. Drawdown"?

For example, the Back The Favourite below has a drawdown of 22%. Am I right in thinking that's how much of your bank you could potentially lose?

John Folan

@kevin-pepper said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@John-Folan Great stuff John. Any thoughts why Mon & Tues seem to be strong days for Faves? I thought I'd have a look on Adrian Massey and just a basic all clear fav check shows them being profitable based on 2017-22 so it's not a recent thing. Saturdays however aren't so healthy and show quite a loss.

That brings me onto my other thought which is whether/when we'll have access to more year's results to be able to check some of the great filters over a longer timescale

@Adam - any update on adding more historical data?

No idea tbh. Could just be the type of racing. (Class?). Not sure on the Saturdays and Massey’s data. He has updated that site once in the last three years manually. The rest of it is an auto update so wouldn’t completely trust it although its a nice double check. I know where Adam gets our data from and it’s straight from the horses mouth so as to speak. Pain in the arse he still uses fractional odds as well. But that’s just me being fussy .

I’m going to set these up on bots with 100 banks and see how they crack on going forwards. Proof is in the pudding and all that.

Kevin Pepper

@John-Folan Great stuff John. Any thoughts why Mon & Tues seem to be strong days for Faves? I thought I'd have a look on Adrian Massey and just a basic all clear fav check shows them being profitable based on 2017-22 so it's not a recent thing. Saturdays however aren't so healthy and show quite a loss.

That brings me onto my other thought which is whether/when we'll have access to more year's results to be able to check some of the great filters over a longer timescale

@Adam - any update on adding more historical data?

John Folan

Then Compounding at 1% of a 100 point bank. This between the two would give you over 5k in 18 months. Trading bank built. Feel free to download and mess with it. DSLR filters, probably not a bad place to start. I haven't looked. Not bad work for a Sunday morning and two cups of coffee...

Back The Favourite at 1% MTSa
0_1667125642923_BTFMTSa.json

Lay the Favourite at 1% WThFSu
0_1667125814052_LTFWTFSu.json

John Folan

So here we have to flat £1 stakes with the classification filters added

Backing the Favourite Monday, Tuesday and Saturday

Laying the Favourite Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday

John Folan

So that is two simple strategies from one idea. The only other thing I will be doing is classification filters. They will make a massive difference.
The Backing Classifications

The Laying Classifications

John Folan

And again. £100 bank 1% compounding and you have £1200 in 18 months. File attached.
0_1667122822263_BTFMWSa.json

John Folan

Class again. I shall be losing the Class Ones.

John Folan

Handicaps vs Non are all profitable. Randomly all Racetypes are as well. Particularly good on the old AW and Turf. So no filtering needed here.

John Folan

So back to pricing we go. Another weird price pattern. This I think has been the downfall of many a strategy. Now as you can set a maximum BSP lay price you can also set a minimum BSP back price. So I will be going 3 and above.

John Folan

The individual days all look similar

John Folan

So then you say "What about the other three days. Surely it is worth backing the favourite?"

Stupid not to look hey?

so the answer is obviously yes.

John Folan

Then what you do is take a £100 bank. Using 1% compounding stakes and in a little over 18 months your £100 has made you £1130. That is how simple trading is. I've attached the file so you can add more filters if you want and play around with it. I changed the staking back to flat. Enjoy.
0_1667120706037_LTFWTFS.json

John Folan

Then I check the class. I did check Handicap vs Non Handicap but that didn't make any difference.

John Folan

Next up I go to race type. Looks pretty obvious to me what needs to happen

John Folan

Then moving on from there I picked the profitable days and ran it through looking at pricing. The anomaly being 4.0-4.99. Now I see this a lot where one small range does this in the midst of several other profitable ones. Not sure how you would weed those out. But the easy option is to knock out anything 4.0 or higher as the 4.0 more than covers the higher priced profit in losses.

John Folan

So just for shits and giggles I ran a lay every favourite through the software. No other filters and the price being BSP. This is what came up. Pretty mind boggling really. Thoughts?