The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@dan-mackinnon, @John-Folan I'm liking the lay to a set liability approach in the software something I've never considered but been put off by the liabilities you could be seeing.
Which strategy are people using for the LAy short favourites, there's so many floating around.
I've not really used the racing software enough to make it worth my while and need to make a decision over the next couple of months but if I can find a couple of decent and profitible strategies that pay for the software then I'll keep going with it until I have the time to delve into in more detail.
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Short odds lays lost 3 points today. But to put it in perspective they will lose 370 times out of every 1000. Still a cracking month
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@dan-mackinnon Yep spot on - I think you might be right about the differences being down to the staking- I've been doing fixed stakes thus far. I've also being toying with the timing of entry a little too. Today was ever so slightly a winner, but it's a very fine line! haha
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@joshua-varley said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@Dan-MacKinnon Hi Dan - out of curiosity, who did you have that lost today, as mine ended up a winning day? Won 3, lost 1.
Duke of Luckley. The 1pm at Carrick. Is that the same for you?
I’m doing fixed liability so that’s probably why my P&L for the day might be different. If you can handle fixed stakes then that’s the way to go but I don’t really like the potentially big losses
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@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I'm going to get them automated @John-Folan defo!
It’s the only way to trade. Well apart from scalping but that’s a different story
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@Dan-MacKinnon Hi Dan - out of curiosity, who did you have that lost today, as mine ended up a winning day? Won 3, lost 1.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan I tagged Ryan and Martin in the one Dan shared a couple of posts back on this thread. It’s virtually identical to mine. The settings are there to download.
cheers john, i take it that it basically lays the fav in the race like your shorts odds strategy, except the odds are between 3-15? or it is like the martin pace lays where you lay the daily selection?
You have to lay whatever horse it says as long as it fits the criteria. To be honest you can go outside of that range if you want and it's not overly time restricted. I put this to the test by using my £20 Betdaq bank and laying whenever I had time.
Today was actually a losing day so be warned if you're being aggressive
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I'm going to get them automated @John-Folan defo!
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@nick-allan I tagged Ryan and Martin in the one Dan shared a couple of posts back on this thread. It’s virtually identical to mine. The settings are there to download.
cheers john, i take it that it basically lays the fav in the race like your shorts odds strategy, except the odds are between 3-15? or it is like the martin pace lays where you lay the daily selection?
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Will start posting the potential short odd lay races from tomorrow. Subject to runner numbers and price of course. I’ll make it obvious in the thread.
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@nick-allan I tagged Ryan and Martin in the one Dan shared a couple of posts back on this thread. It’s virtually identical to mine. The settings are there to download.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
The short odds lays and beaten favourites are kicking on lovely. New bank highs for both. Stakes starting to look interesting now.
Probably need the speed ratings or some other stats to build a dobbing strategy for shorter priced horses (2-15 range). They will be here soon enough. @Adam has built a beast with this software.
Fantastic for laying strategies. Especially liability lays as odd increase which I use for the beaten faves. My strategy is similar to the variation on Martins that Dan posted a week or so ago in this thread.
I’m over the moon with it.
Hey john i dont remember seeing a beaten favs strategy on the main page is this one you have john? and would you mind sharing the set up so i can test it? I love the shorts odds lay as it doesnt have big drawdown and is very consistent which is good for when you up the stakes
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
top man thank you
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.
I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json
It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900
Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got
But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.
This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.
The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!
@Ryan These ones. @Martin I think these need to be added to the megathread.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@greg-mitchell I’ll tag @Adam
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Is there an easy way in the Software to set a minimum number of criteria, rather than the "All, Any or None" options that are there currently.
So say for example, I have 6 different criteria and I want to pick any selection that meets at least 4 of them?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan same for me! Another clean sweep today.
I've got my Betfair account using a bot with fixed liability which is going great. I wanted an "adventurous" option, so I have been using Beaten Favourites on my Betdaq account with aggressive staking and the results have been crazy.
Seriously toying with doing a flat stakes version. The p and l is mental. Could be a laugh to just let it go
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@john-folan same for me! Another clean sweep today.
I've got my Betfair account using a bot with fixed liability which is going great. I wanted an "adventurous" option, so I have been using Beaten Favourites on my Betdaq account with aggressive staking and the results have been crazy.
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The short odds lays and beaten favourites are kicking on lovely. New bank highs for both. Stakes starting to look interesting now.
Probably need the speed ratings or some other stats to build a dobbing strategy for shorter priced horses (2-15 range). They will be here soon enough. @Adam has built a beast with this software.
Fantastic for laying strategies. Especially liability lays as odd increase which I use for the beaten faves. My strategy is similar to the variation on Martins that Dan posted a week or so ago in this thread.
I’m over the moon with it.
