The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Dan MacKinnon]

@greg-mitchell for me I’m only using 3 strategies and they’re all 1%. That’s based on drawdown, strike rate, etc.

It probably depends on the strategy and what you’re comfortable with. When I was doing the same with football trading I had certain targets and if my bank hit that I would up my stake. That’s another way of compounding. The only trouble doing it manually is you’re less likely to compound down after bad days

[Greg Mitchell]

@dan-mackinnon So, if you have multiple strategies they all get compounded at 1% of bank? or do you have different compound rates for different strategies?

[Dan MacKinnon]

@greg-mitchell I have it set in Fairbot to use 1% of my bank so it automatically resets after every trade.

The main reason I do that is so I don’t have to worry about it. Once I feel happy with my laying strategies I’ll do like John mentioned and have fixed liability.

I feel more confident letting the bot compound my bank than me doing it! You get less emotionally attached on bad days

[Greg Mitchell]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.

It’s amazing. I’ve got a very similar beaten favourites to Martins on the go. It’s got a lower drawdown so Im compounding at 5%. Gone from £10 liability to £70 in a couple of months while I test it. EVERYONE should be compounding. Literally if it takes great. If it doesn’t then you don’t lose much. Plus no massive drawdown through doubling stakes etc.

Do you compound after every trade, or daily or monthly or something else?

[John Folan]

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.

It’s amazing. I’ve got a very similar beaten favourites to Martins on the go. It’s got a lower drawdown so Im compounding at 5%. Gone from £10 liability to £70 in a couple of months while I test it. EVERYONE should be compounding. Literally if it takes great. If it doesn’t then you don’t lose much. Plus no massive drawdown through doubling stakes etc.

[Dan MacKinnon]

@john-folan oh definitely. Compounding is the way forward.

[Nick Allan]

@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:

Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.

Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.

0_1668519455925_BACK FAV.json

nice work greg

[John Folan]

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.

I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json

It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900

Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got

But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.

This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.

The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!

Now stick that liability on a compounding and realise that it’s the way forward

[Greg Mitchell]

@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:

Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.

Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.

0_1668519455925_BACK FAV.json

Just realised that one needs to be careful if the favourite turns out not to be the horse the software selects, have to make sure the actual favourite does not have a pace rating of 0

[Dan MacKinnon]

Something that I've really enjoyed looking at is the lay strategies on the software. I think it suits my trading style more having lots of small wins and the occasional big loss, but (hopefully) overall heading in the right direction.

I had a mess around with Martin's Beaten Favourite. The filter is here 0_1668523149182_rules_export-laybeatenfav.json

It has a really decent strike rate and when I went through the individual results there were only 251 losing trades from c.2,900

Using £1 flat stakes this is what I got

But after listening to Martin's YouTube Q&A video he mentioned wanting to know your liability. This is something I never really thought about as I see this as a hobby. I then thought what if I changed it to a fixed liability so I went into every trade like it was a placing a bet and I've written off my £14 from a worst-case scenario.

This is using £14 liability from a £100 bank.

The software is really good at running the numbers on a thought experiment like that!

[John Folan]

@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:

Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.

Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.

0_1668519455925_BACK FAV.json

Sweet. Thanking you

[Martin]

@greg-mitchell some amazing work going on here guys! Thanks

[Greg Mitchell]

Been playing around with Johns Back the Fav on a Mon, Tue & Sat strategy, here's the results:

Strike Rate about the same, ROI% doubled.

Plus its actually profitable if you use it every day of the week.

0_1668519455925_BACK FAV.json

[Greg Mitchell]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

70% career dob rate
100% in last 3 races
Class 4/5 and No AW
DSLR 8-80
Runners 5-20
Odds 8-100

0_1668422644958_rules_export.json

Nice One!

[John Folan]

70% career dob rate
100% in last 3 races
Class 4/5 and No AW
DSLR 8-80
Runners 5-20
Odds 8-100

0_1668422644958_rules_export.json

[Greg Mitchell]

Here you go.

0_1668422321303_DOB.json

[Martin]

@razvan-alexandru said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@greg-mitchell Can you please share the strategy? Or how did you find 80% DOB in the last 10 races? I've been trying to do something similar with 70% but I got some errors and couldn't run it..Thanks!

Ditto that!

[A Former User]

@greg-mitchell Can you please share the strategy? Or how did you find 80% DOB in the last 10 races? I've been trying to do something similar with 70% but I got some errors and couldn't run it..Thanks!

[Nick Allan]

@greg-mitchell fab, well keep us updated ill be very interested to hear how you get on

[Greg Mitchell]

@nick-allan Yes, starting today