The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan great book
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
It wouldn’t sweat it too much. You can spend too long looking for reasons why stuff has a bad week. Used to drive me up the wall. Then I read a book called “Fooled by the Randomness”. Made me look at it all in a new light.
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@matthew-sheehan Chelt races in particular or all racing this week?
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I’ve had a great feb and March but as soon as Cheltenham came in, I’ve had a massive pasting. Hard to take but I’ve put it down to variance. stay hard bitches
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
Hopefully that's all by the end of the day, today has started badly as well.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones wonder if the big festivals distort the rest of racing, seems like they do, will be interesting to monitor moving forward
Yes I have found it a very topsy turvey week, mainstream has been great though!! End of week accounts could show a valuable insight for me as first time trading a festival.
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It had worked just after i posted. The criteria were similar so i was wondering how i could tell. One had Age Rank the other didnt and that suddenly showed in the list (but it hadnt before) so i knew it had changed over.
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I’m about 4 points down this month on the short odd lays. Shame after last month but plenty of time for it to sort itself out.
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@martin said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
Shouldn't take this long. The daily qualifiers runs roughly every 90 minutes currently and will pick up the latest active strategies each time it runs.
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@jonathan-jones I'll need to look into my results for the past couple of years but I'm pretty sure all the big racing events my strategies have struggled but I might be wrong.
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Well, thats been a totally crap week.
Incidentally i checked the historical data i have for my portfolio experiment and Cheltnam weeks in 2021 and 2022 were totally crap. Should of looked before hand really. Wont be trading over cheltnam next year for sure. -
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
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@alastair-gray
Good to see mate
puts it more into a general perspective alright, definitely think looking at it over the longer term is the way to go. I was hoping I could withdraw a bit every month or so but I might have to extend that timescale a wee bit given recent events 
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If i change the version of a strategy thats active (so the one i want the daily qualifiers to use), how do i know if that change has been reflected in the qualifiers? I changed one this morning from one version to the other, but looking at the daily qualifiers i dont think (but have no real way of knowing) its showing the right ones.
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@alastair-gray just make sure your bot is set up to allow bets on both UK and Irish races - the ready-made bot is set up for UK only.
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Just variance I think. Not currently close to the max drawdown.
These are my live results since I started them in June last year. I've had losing months, but so far not had a losing quarter. Only difference with John's is my bot doesn't fire on Irish races - think it's due to the 'class' filter.
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@angus-macleod been slowly thinking the same. Fingers crossed
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Hoping this downswing on the short odds lays turns around soon, my poor bank doesn't know whats hit it
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Since its now been 2 weeks i thought i would give a bit of an update on my portfolio experiment of trading all the strategies on a small account with a 1% risk.
Its been a rubbish start to be honest. I am in profit but i am also in drawdown and miles behind target. I am looking at the 'target' being the average daily points as determined by the historical data. That is 4.1, i am currently on 0.56 for a total of £3.26 profit. The drawdown and number of days in drawdown is nothing out of the ordinary from the historical (so far). at 8.6% and 7 days thats pretty common in the past 2 years. What is slightly worrying is that over 14 days i have only had 4 positive days. I cant see a period that poor at all in the last 2 years of data. Guessi picked a bad time to start.
So, the experiment continues. Next update will probably be at the end of the first month.
