The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-woodroffe were they unmatched or just didn't place inrunning?
Didn’t place in running it seems. Almost like they lapsed?
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Lay the Field update:
I'm not convinced we are going in the right direction with this (very happy to be proved wrong though!)
The few picks I have made with the criteria haven't been positive and led to an overall loss. Also, taking Australia as an example, if I look at the historical data for 2020 then I have zero events where 3+ runners had £100 traded on them below 2.0So, I'm testing in a different direction.
Using Ryan's "What has to happen?" question then the key thing is that multiple horses have to get below an odds threshold... the number of runners, BSP fav, etc don't matter if one horse disappears up the track. I think there needs to be some in-play consideration to the decision to trade.What I am going to try is looking for races where the IP odds of the 3rd fav get below, say, 3.0 (best value TBD)...then we know we have several horses in the mix and we can lay the field.
To begin with I'm running this with micro stakes on any race (no restriction on BSP, runners, length, etc) to see if any patterns emerge.EDIT: The wrinkle to this is that they don't all have to be under, say 3.0, at the same time for the trade to win....but that needs more thought
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I prefer to watch the match go live for now as I'm learning a lot about the odds etc.
It seems if there are 2 horses in the 3's & 1 or 2 more below 6.5 is more likely to succeed but need more data as back up
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@james-woodroffe were they unmatched or just didn't place inrunning?
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So I “thought” I’d set up BetTrader to automatically kick in the races that I had selected from yesterday and woke up to discover that I’d obviously done something wrong and none of them were activated. Like you
@Alan-Steward i have overslept big time. Something I was thinking tho was I wonder even though the courses I mentioned yesterday were where the liquidity by rights should have been, if the fact that they were between 2:30 and 5:00 am would have made a difference? Maybe the liquidity is at some of the lesser courses after a particular time of morning cause it’s more trade friendly hours?? -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
just got up anyone been trading Aus with any success?
Massive oversleep for me too late for anything lol
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Lay the Field Shortlist - These races could fit the parameters make sure they do before trading!
(Lay the field inrunning at odds of 1.81 or 2.04. 1250m-1650m distance, fav must be 4.0+, 4+ horses at 10.0 odds or below and 9+ runners. At least 50k matched before off)
8.14am Ascot - Aus
8.25am Caulfield - Aus
8.32am Alice Springs - Aus
8.40am Morphettville - Aus
9.40am Toowoomba - Aus
10.15am Toowoomba - Aus
5.15pm Tampa - USA
7.15pm Tampa - USA
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@james-woodroffe Massive effort mate... Awesome!
Thanks
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@james-woodroffe Nice one mate really useful information. Really helps us Brits
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@james-woodroffe Nice one James, will be watching these with interest.
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Hey guys, so I hope this helps this is for the Oz racing tomorrow. I’ve found 5 races that fit Martins LTF strategy all at major Australian race tracks in capital cities for tomorrow. Apologies in advance for mentioning metres but they all are min 6 furlongs.
Randwick Race 2 03:10am 1400m
Caulfield Race 9 08:25am 16:00m
Morphetville Race 4 05:21am 1250m (large field)
Race 9 08:40am 1400m 7 of 14 starters at 10.0 or under and 2 currently at 12.00Ascot Race 7 08:14 1600m 5 of 13 runners at 10.0 or under
These next ones are races at the same venues but where the favourite is under 4.0 but could hit 4.00 by the off.
Caulfield 04:35
Morphetville Race 1 03:35 and Race 5 at 06:01 (Fav 3.65 and 8 of 9 runners at or under 10.0
Ascot Race 6 07:38 Fav 3.40 5 runners at or under 10.0 in a field of 12.
Newcastle Race 5 05:54 1850m
Hope we get a few here lads.
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@alan-steward I can do that. Time is something I have an abundance of at the moment.
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@james-woodroffe As the Aussie races are quite early are you able to look the day before?
Cheers mate... Only if you get time
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@alan-steward hey mate I could do that as well
as possibly a Don’t Bother for each day if it helps. There’s a lot of horse racing each day in Oz but a lot in random s**t holes. Would be happy to help. -
@james-woodroffe Hi mate as you know all things Aussie, are you able to compile a list of the more notable courses or are there too many to mention lol
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@Martin-Futter Did you consider the last race to be potentially profitable and did you enter?
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Going thru those 3 cards for tomorrow and there are not huge amounts that would fit the criteria but there are a few mainly at Morphetville.
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@martin-futter describing Kalgoolie as a back water is an understatement.
Even the races from my home town were up on Betfair the other day and I thought I must have dreamt that. Massive day tomorrow tho as it’s Sydney Cup at Randwick and there’s cards at Morphetville (Adelaide) and Caulfield (Melbourne). -
@claudiu-ion I believe theres 8% tax in some of their races so I look for 1.92 & lay 1.088pts which should scratch with 2 matched... Be interesting to see how profitable these different odds work out
